Vlado's excellent contest predictions and analysis

Cecil Harvey vs. Jade Curtiss vs. Wario vs. Zack Fair
The best time in Board 8's year - CONTEST TIME, has come! This is most pleasurable, hopefully we get some quality users along with it, too. Last year we got the incredible L-Block supporters, but, sadly, barely any of them stayed with us afterwards... If we get half as many awesome people this year, I'd be more than glad. Even if they only stayed as short as the brilliant L-Block people did.

Anyway, down to business... I've decided to make a thread where I'll post my predictions for the contest matches, and/or analyse the results. Since I don't visit every day like I used to a couple years ago, I might miss some matches, but I'll do my best not to. I'll also post my bracket picks and who I want to advance every day. My vote is the first character that I want to advance, unless specified otherwise.

So, time for Matchday 1:

Cecil Harvey vs. Jade Curtiss vs. Wario vs. Zack Fair

For once, Nintendo would have lost the opening match, if only Zack didn't have another two RPG characters leeching his votes. I think Zack will be a decent midcarder, below Tifa and Vincent's level, but still decent. I'd most likely take him to beat Wario, one of the least impressive Nintendo representatives ever, if this were one-on-one... But it isn't. Nintendo is Nintendo, Wario has no-one to lose votes to, and he'll get a bit of a boost from Brawl. He has this one.

My prediction: Wario > Zack.

Percentages: Cecil - 18.76%, Jade - 8.93%, Wario - 39.70%, Zack - 32.61%.

My bracket: Wario > Zack.

I'd like to see: Zack > Jade.

Link vs. Luke fon Fabre vs. Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Zidane Tribal
So, Zack actually beat Wario in the opening match. Let's hope the contest continues in this direction, Final Fantasy VII can't get nearly as much credit as it deserves. We had 3 RPG characters against a Nintendo one, and the Nintendo one suffered a crushing defeat - in fact, Wario will be struggling to break 1/3 of the total votes. Imagine if it were a direct match - Zack would be destroying Wario!

But then again, let's not get too optimistic - as Hochiminh said, Wario is fodder. Even if he is a Nintendo character, even if he got somewhat of a Brawl boost, he simply isn't that liked. We'll see how the stronger Nintendo representatives do in future matches.

Another thing that has to be noted is the awesome picture Zack got. He reminds the voters so much of the invincible Cloud Strife! It was only natural they chose him over the boring Mario anti-type.

Funny how some people tried to make fun of me because I called the match wrong... As if they got it right. Remember what Jesus said about throwing the first stone, people. Congrats to those that did have Zack over Wario but... The biggest drama is to those, who, unlike me, don't have Zack advancing in the next round...

Now, on to Matchday 2:

Link vs. Luke fon Fabre vs. Shadow the Hedgehog vs. Zidane Tribal

Hm, after today, I'm not THAT confident in my pick, but Zidane is Zidane... Despite being a really awesome, positive character, a definite change in FF leads from Cloud and Squall, he's proved in the previous two contests that he's little more than fodder - barely more popular than Cecil. So yeah, I think this one is pretty clear. The badass Shadow, despite inevitably losing the most votes out of the three to the juggernaut that is Link, should still have no problems taking second. Luke will have a fate similar to Jade's today - in fact, I think he'll do even worse, simply because Link is here and he takes votes from ANYONE... Those two's fans should be proud they made the contest at all.

My prediction: Link > Shadow.

Percentages: Link - 61.85%, Luke - 5.12%, Shadow - 18.69%, Zidane - 14.34%.

My bracket: Link > Shadow.

I'd like to see: Zidane > Shadow.

Duke Nukem vs. Kefka vs. Marth vs. Niko Bellic
Zidane pulled the first major upset of the contest, defeating Shadow, who was heavily hurt by Link. Zidane himself also deserves credit, though, he did much better than expected. I think the evidence so far is clearly pointing in one direction - Square is back. Maybe, Sonic characters have also gotten weaker... But I don't think the difference could be significant there. Is it the excellent FFVII-themed contest logo, is it that simply we've gotten more quality users in the last year... Who knows. Maybe we'll find out by the end of the contest.

Time for Matchday 3:

Duke Nukem vs. Kefka vs. Marth vs. Niko Bellic

Speaking of Square, Kefka is in this one. But... I'm not so sure if the results so far guarantee his success. Cecil didn't really impress yesterday... But Kefka is definitely stronger. This spike could actually just affect 3D Final Fantasy characters. It is a possibility... Anyway, Smash Brothers-happy Marth should be the favourite here. While he would have normally struggled to get third in such a group if he relied solely on his Fire Emblem fame, Smash really makes him into a heavy favourite here. There's little doubt in my mind that he'll win.

In contention for second place, we have Duke, who didn't do half badly last year, Kefka, who always chokes, and newcomer Niko Bellic from the critically acclaimed GTAIV. Let's start with Niko... Frankly, I think he won't reach the somewhat respectable Vercetti level, which could possibly get him through this group. GTA has proven again and again to be a joke in these contests, for whatever reason. Especially its characters.

Then, we have Kefka, who has disappointed again and again... If it weren't for my blind faith in him, I would have jointly won the Villains Contest... Alas, I had him over Diablo in that one match. Afterwards, I skillfully predicted his results. This time, he's in another tough match... We already established he'd beat Niko, but what about Duke? Hm, this is tougher. Duke managed to beat Gordon Freeman last year, which is definitely quite an achievement for him. Since then, there has been information that Duke Nukem Forever would actually release. Will that help him? I doubt it. PC gaming has its fans on GameFAQs and the Duke is more or less a PC gaming icon, but Kefka should have a bit more support than him, especially after the Square success of the last two days. Dissidia has reminded people of Kefka and it should help a little bit, too. I think it'll be very close between Kefka and the Duke, but Kefka should manage to prevail, even if Duke will likely keep decreasing his lead throughout the day and until the late evening.

My prediction: Marth > Kefka.

Percentages: Duke - 24.06%, Kefka - 24.83%, Marth - 36.43%, Niko - 14.68%.

My bracket: Marth > Kefka.

I'd like to see: Kefka > Duke.