(7)Kefka vs (10)L-Block 2018

Ulti's Analysis
This was one of the most hotly debated matches in round one, because it was widely believed the winner would be able to go on a deep contest run. Division 3 was perceived as being very weak, and it was well within the realm of possibility that the winner here would be able to win the entire division. The winner of this was almost guaranteed to make it to round 3. If that winner was L-Block, it was not impossible for a bandwagon effect to show up and hand the guy the entire contest.

Anyone who claims they had a good beat on this either way was pretty much lying, because neither of these characters is predictable in the slightest. Kefka's contest history is well known for the guy never doing what he's supposed to do. The dude was supposed to easily beat Pac-Man but went 50-50 with him. He was supposed to easily lose to Knuckles but got super close until the morning vote. He was supposed to win a division but lost to Diablo. The 4ways are just a cluster of 'what'. He was supposed to lose to Arthas and beat Arthas's ass. He was supposed to lose to Zack, then won two 3way polls because of course he did. The only contest he's ever made sense in was the Rivalry Rumble, which says a lot.

L-Block's runs don't make sense, either. Everyone knows about 2007, but he was making a run in 2008 too before Pikachu beat him. Then the guy gets to Charizard and can't break 40% on the guy, before beating Auron. I doubt most people would call Kefka stronger than Auron, yet here we are. This is a great example of why stats mean positively dick in these contests, especially when we haven't had a proper character battle in over a decade. I ended up picking L-Block, because whenever Kefka is the board favorite the dude falls flat on his face. That's the one predictable thing about this guy.

Turns out we couldn't even rely on that much. In what was quickly becoming a pattern in this contest, this was never even a match. It's why so many of my writeups thusfar have been about esoteric feelings instead of match trends and cold facts. "Character A won the board vote and went from X% at the freeze to Y% by the end" 100 times just isn't interesting. That said it actually was interesting here, because debated matches turning into hilarious blowouts are always entertaining. L-Block was a threat to win this match and go on a deep contest run. Instead he lost in round one and made Kefka look as strong as Charizard. That's one hell of a feat, and it was another data point in a very real trend this contest -- people are beyond fed up with rallybait joke characters. Every single one of them got demolished this year, and L-Block was no exception.