(8)The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion vs (9)Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars 2015

Ulti's Analysis
This was without a doubt the most important round 1 match in the history of our contests, at least when it pertains to pre-contest hype actually mattering. Often we'll argue over 1 point matches that don't ultimately matter, or maybe a fourpack. Occasionally we'll get a cool half division where everything is lumped together.

For this match, the hype was 100% warranted and everyone knew it. Whichever game won this poll was a lock to win three matches total, and perhaps even go past that if a bandwagon got going. The Resident Evil 4 upset wasn't really entertained until mid-contest, but we all knew this match was worth 7 points bare minimum. The winner of this match would get GTA5, which was a guaranteed win. We're smart enough to know how GTA works on this site. Then in round 3, it would see either World of Warcraft, San Andreas, or perhaps even Chrono Cross. Any of those three games is an easy win for Oblivion or SMRPG. Makes no difference which. For that reason, getting this match right was absolutely necessary for anyone looking to win this contest.

Both games had amazing cases to win this match, and both were exceptionally close in past x-stats. The stats were somewhat reliable, too, since Mario RPG proved in two different contests that it either resists SFF well or outright doesn't get SFFd at all.

Look at these two polls:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4425-what-is-your-all-time-favorite-nintendo-game-on-the-snes http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2644-which-games-would-you-most-love-to-see-on-the-wiis-virtual

Those are ridiculous numbers given what SMRPG was sharing the poll with, and was perhaps the biggest indicator of SMRPG's true strength. One could very easily make the case that SMRPG would be a top 10 game in contest strength if it were ever released in Europe, which we'll get to in a sec. The much simpler argument was how close Thousand-Year Door got to Oblivion in Game of the Decade, and how SMRPG should easily be able to make up a 5% difference: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4164-northwest-division-round-2-paper-mario-tyd-vs-oblivion

On the Oblivion side, it entirely came down to whether or not Skyrim boosted the series. If there was any boost to speak of, Oblivion would theoretically win with ease since the games were even in the stats. Its run in 2009 was no joke, and getting 44% on Wind Waker after winning two matches is also impressive. But in one of the weirdest twists of fate in contest history, a big-time series release actually devalued a series.

Before Skyrim: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4444-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game

After Skyrim: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5467-whats-your-all-time-favorite-4-game

Skyrim didn't render Oblivion irrelevant, but it didn't help it either. When you pair that with other intangibles -- Mario RPG being everything GameFAQs likes in one package, Western RPG love being relatively new here, this contest potentially having old games embarrass new games in a fair bracket, Nintendo AND Square in one package, the "4" polls showing Skyrim not actually boosting the Elder Scrolls series, Nintendo rarely losing debatable matches, the FLOWCHART™, et al -- Mario RPG was a slight favorite going into this match.

It's a shame the match itself didn't live up to the very worthy hype, because this really deserved to be a barn-burner, photo finish type of match. This contest was pretty short on those types of matches in all honestly, but that doesn't mean this was a bad contest at all. It was rather nice being able to unwind for the last few hours, in truth. As for the match itself, Mario RPG wrecked face in the board vote and stayed above 60% for nearly an hour. Mario RPG would bleed a lot of percentage overnight, but Oblivion never made a true push to actually win the match and would ultimately stay at 46% all day. It was a disappointing match for Oblivion when it could have potentially made the Final Four had it won this match, but those are the breaks sometimes. The only reason Mario RPG even bled percentage is because it was never released in Europe, which would become a rather hysterical trend in all of its matches this contest.

For Mario RPG, this meant a guaranteed spot in the divisional finals, and the beginning of a lot of Mario RPG > Resident Evil 4 hype. By this point of the contest, people noticed that old games beating new games was a noticeable trend, and Mario RPG being over 60% on Oblivion early on in a hyped match caught a lot of eyeballs. RE4 fans were scared to death, and they had every right to be.