Acronyms and Percentages

Acronyms
SFF (Same Fanbase Factor): When two characters with vastly overlapping fanbases are in a match, you're likely to see a blowout of epic proportions in comparison to what the characters should be getting on one another. This is SFF, and it's one of the most common terms you'll see on the boards. Link/Ganondorf 2004 is the biggest example of this, though it has happened in other matches. However, take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that they don't understand fully. This has caused a few SFF jokes, with LordOfDabu's "Some Frivolous Factor" being the funniest of them.

rSFF (Reverse Same Fanbase Factor): An unproven theory that states that an SFF match will feature the expected weaker character receiving more benefit from SFF than the stronger character. This is a very shaky theory, and the only decent evidence of it ever happening is Mega Man/Zero 2004 in which Zero managed to win a few updates and be far closer to Mega Man than most expected him to be. As for rSFF actually helping a weaker character to win a match, it's yet to even come close to happening.

Update: The Summer 2005 Contest was nice enough to allow Mario to beat Samus, giving us the biggest case for rSFF allowing the weaker character statistically to win the match. Wasn't that nice? Now granted this means Mario is now the stronger character statistically, but that's besides the point.

Xsts (Extrapolated Standings): Refers to a statistical listing made after each contest in which every character is given an "Expected Value Against Champion" based off of the percentage they had in their loss in that contest. The winner of the contest is given a value of 50.00%, and the other characters in the contest fall in line. The Xsts have become a staple of Board 8, and have become a mainstream tool in picking matches. The hardcore mathemeticians of the board have gotten the Xsts down to such a science that even SFF adjustments can be made to them by using other characters as bases to determine the SFFd character's expected value. However, while the Xsts are ingenious, it's a "live by the sword, die by the sword" philosophy. The board generally tends to favor the stats in some of the tougher matches, an no one is more shocked than the board when the stats go wrong. While the stats serve to be a good tool, they are mostly a general guide and not pure canon due to the fact that they are not linear.

LFF (Leeching Fanbase Factor): A phenomenon of multi-option polls in which two entries of the same fanbase screw each other over. It happens all the time during offseason multi-game polls, not to mention throughout the entire Summer 2007 Contest.

TJF (The Jug Factor): Mostly little more than a board fad in 2002, The Jug Factor is the theory that girls with big jugs (breasts) do better than they're supposed to in the polls. TJF is basically the label that people used when trying to explain how Spyro lost to Morrigan, how Terry Bogard lost to Aya Brea, and how Gordon Freeman lost to Tina Armstrong. As for TJF being a major factor, it's very doubtful.

KHF (Kingdom Hearts Factor): Refers to the massive, near-inexplicable boost that Cloud, Sephiroth, and Squall all received between the Summer 2002 and Summer 2003 contests. Kingdom Hearts was released between those two contests, and by the time the Summer 2003 Contest rolled around, KHF was what most people blamed for Squall's shocking victory over Luigi, Sephiroth's demolishing of every opponent he faced before the finals, and Cloud being able to decimate every opponent in his division en route to being able to beat Link and Sephiroth in the Final Four. The main defenses of KHF are one, that the characters that allegedly benefitted from KHF have cooled off a little since Summer 2003, and two, Sephiroth/Mega Man 2003. In 2002, Sephiroth and Mega Man had a match in which Mega Man scored 48185 votes out of 97357. In 2003, only one year later, Sephiroth and Mega Man had another match. This time around, Mega Man managed 48213 votes out of 124192. In one year, the same exact match was given an extra 26835 votes, yet only 28 of those extra votes went to Mega Man.

VFL (Vyse Fodder Line): Essentially, it's common consensus among many that Vyse is as weak as you can be and still be strong enough to be in the contest. You go below it, and you're fodder. Thus, Vyse is the fodder line (kudos to HaRRicH for the definition).

Update: Tifa essentially told this theory to go and screw itself in the Summer 2005 Contest. Since Vyse isn't exactly a reliable character to use as a fodder line, it may be a better idea to simply use a numerical Xst value. Personally, I think a good number for the fodder line is an Xst value of 15%.

BMF (Black Mage Factor): The theory that certain characters do better depending on the picture they get, simply because it makes them more recognizable. This was a major reason for believing that Vivi would beat Donkey Kong in 2004 despite not many knowing the name "Vivi". However, this factor has existed since the beginning of these contests and applies to more than just Vivi the Black Mage. The same factor can apply for CATS, Kefka, Shadow of FF6, Chrono Trigger characters when they get their sprites, Ryu Hayabusa and others. Virtually any character that isn't a household name around the world can do better if they're given a picture that everyone knows, even if the voters don't put the picture together with the name. This factor is essentially an extension of TJF, but it applies to nearly everyone and is a little more viable.

BL (Base Link): It's generally accepted that 2003 Link should be the base for all universal calculations due to 2003 Link being equal to 2002 Link (due to some insane math that creativename came up with that I won't even pretend to understand), and it has become more and more common to see universal stats and calculations based off of him.

FFF (Fodder Fluctuation Factor): This is a very recent factor in terms of people catching onto it, but Phediuk has actually been throwing around the idea for well over a year now. We've simply never had solid evidence of it. FFF is a theory that states that fodder becomes stronger as it faces weaker opponents, and vice versa. While this is generally true for every character, you generally see more wild fluctuations for fodder then you do anyone else. This is FFF, the idea that fodder characters are oftentimes under or overestimated due to not being in matches that they have a real chance of winning. Part of this reason may be that the Xsts cannot accurately gauge characters as they get into the deeper layers, but the idea of fodder not being consistent regardless has always been there. It's simply never had an official name before.

GFNW (Gordon Freeman Never Wins): http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/gordonfreeman.htm

TTF (The Tanner Factor): A character facing someone so weak in an early match that they look FAR stronger than they actually are. Snake > Tanner is the biggest example of this, though there are plenty of other matches that cause chattering masses on Board 8 to overestimate characters scoring huge blowouts early.

TYF (The Yoshi Factor): A character being overestimated due to past success in a Poll of the Day featuring multiple entrants. Yoshi winning TWO "Favorite Mario Character?" polls is an excellent example of this, though past GOTY polls have much the same effect as well.

WDF (West Division Factor): A lot of characters from the West Division look overrated in the 2002 stats due to a number of inexplicable matches all tied in with Sephiroth. Sephiroth, Samus, Sonic, and Mega Man were all nearly dead even in the stats due to them all having close matches with one another. Sonic/Samus were only separated by 34 votes, Sephiroth/Mega Man were only separated by 987 votes, and Sephiroth/Samus were separated by 5130. Because all of these characters are so close and because the Xsts go by percentage, it is widely believed that the reason for these four characters being overrated is due to Sephiroth overperforming on Link. While this is a viable reason, it's still very possible that something really strange happened in the matches within the West Division that year as well. Close matches tend to cause statistical problems, after all. We still don't have a clear-cut answer for why it happened, but at least we have a name for it: WDF.

20XXDF (20XX Division Factor): Without question, the 20XX Division is about the most fucked up division we've ever seen in any of these contests. It's not so much a factor as it is a warning sign for anyone who wants to take the results seriously. The most obvious reason behind this is the entire trio of Frog, Liquid Snake, and Master Chief. Thanks to the three characters having two matches decided by a combined 100 votes, they were all dead even in the stats. This is all well and good, but thanks to Solid Snake getting the single worst picture we've ever seen in one of these contests against Sprite Frog, Frog was able to give Snake an extremely close match. Frog grabbed the early vote, fell behind by a couple thousand during the day, then came back by a few hundred in the second night vote. This led to Frog, Liquid, and Chief all getting very high values in the 2004 Xsts -- almost even with Solid Snake.

People expected the trio to be underestimated, but not to the low levels that future matches would indicate. Against Sephiroth in the Spring 2005 Contest, Liquid Snake completely bombed and scored 10% less than what the 2004 Xsts projected. This was after a very unimpressive victory against Lavos, as well. Frog also underperformed in 2005 when he saw a doubling in a projected SFF affair versus Riku turn into a 52-48 disappointment. And Master Chief went back to his old ways of being Mr. Anti-Vote when he greatly underperformed against CATS.

But the division's... odd nature, so to speak, actually doesn't stop with this trio. Mega Man won this division in 2005, and went on to be absolutely demolished at the hands of Link in the Final Four. People put the SFF tag on Mega Man/Link, and as such, the entire division was subsequently adjusted upward to account for the alleged SFF. Some argued against the change, but before the change was made, Solid Snake was well under Ryu in the stats after having beaten him to a pulp the year before. However, Solid Snake aside, some rather odd things have happened recently that may suggest that a Link/Mega Man adjustment should not have been made. Tidus, Tommy Vercetti, and Zero have all (relatively) underperformed since 2004. Earthworm Jim, Shadow the Hedgehog, Max Payne, Protoman, and Crash Bandicoot have yet to see another contest.

Well neither has Tanner, but who gives a crap about him? >_>

The only characters who really help make that SFF adjustment valid are Solid Snake, Kefka, and Knuckles. But they were all in the same fourpack, and it's likely that Kefka was the benefit of a ton of bracket voting against Vercetti in 2005. Even Solid Snake is tough to gauge, given that he has yet to have a tough to call match since 2002 and Metal Gear Solid characters and games have been bombing left and right in these contests. It'll be difficult to accurately judge what happened in this division, assuming we ever do. Too many odd things happened within it and outside of it to gauge very well.

Percentages
Stop assuming that a comeback is going on when the losing character gains in percentage. You are not deep. You are not perceptive. You are not intelligent. Get a job. Or better yet, go back to the third grade and learn some basic math.

In every contest, during seemingly any match, you'll always get some idiot making a "ZOMG CHARACTER X IS COMING BACK HE'S CLOSING THE PERCENTS!111!" topic somewhere.

It is at this point that everyone else wishes they were in the same real life room as the idiot making the topic, because as everyone who has ever passed a third grade math class knows, the losing character closing the percentage means squat; most of the time, at least.

Rather than putting it into words, here is a numerical example using somewhat fake data:

Samus - 40 [100.00%] Sam Fisher - 0 [0.00%]

In this example, Samus has a 40 vote lead and 100% of the vote. Now check out this awesome magic trick:

Samus - 120 [80.00%] Sam Fisher - 30 [20.00%]

Despite Samus increasing her lead by 50 votes, her percentage of the total vote went from 100% to 80%. No one should bother saying that Sam Fisher is coming back in the match, because he isn't. It's plain as day. And while this example is fairly easy to understand due to the low numbers involved in the data, it's viable in a contest match when the vote totals are much higher as well. Not every gain in percentage by the lower character means that said losing character is coming back in the match, and a great example of this would be Master Chief/Crono 2005. In the beginning of the match, Crono had over 70% of the vote. By the end, he only had 61.29% of the vote. Yet Master Chief, despite using a good day vote to take nearly 10% off of Crono's total, didn't win a single five minute update. Not one. In fact, he never came close.

Don't be that idiot who assumes a comeback is going on every time the losing character gains in percentage. Percentages are only there to see trends and to make the Xsts. To see if the loser is coming back, bust out the calculator. This isn't to say that percentages can't be an indicator of a comeback (especially in a close match), but vote totals work just as well in that case regardless.