Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Contest Semifinal |
|---|---|
| Match # | 126 |
| Match Date | Wednesday, December 22, 2010 |
| Vote difference | 211 |
| Oracle Expectations |
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 48.42% 13 for - 63 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask - 7.78% |
| Battle Contest Predictions |
Banked: 81 |
DAWN OF THE SECOND DAY
-48 Hours Remain-
Without a doubt the best match of this entire contest. This was a throwback to the days of not having all this crazy overload of information to work with... while having all this crazy overload of information to work with. For 24 solid hours, this was just two sides rooting for a favorite and there was no way of knowing who would win until very very late -- just like the days of yonder when we couldn't predict every trend and percentage and shift and demographic and etc down to the hundredth of a decimal.
Majora's Mask came out rocking early but fell off fast, indicating joke/bandwagon trends. Seeing a Zelda game get that type of trend is kind of weird, but one can argue a Zelda game with that trend is the most dangerous type of game there is. Regardless, Zelda rocked the first 15 minutes before falling off a rock -- relatively speaking, that is. FFX recovered and started taking over the match at that point, but it wasn't without a struggle. Zelda fought every step of the way and kept this match at near-deadlocked status for three solid hours. It took FFX exactly three hours just to build a triple digit lead, and one could argue the early struggle is where FFX's eventual downfall sourced from.
But even with the early struggle in trying to shake Majora off like a bad case of the fleas, FFX was bound to explode during its dominant dead hours voting block. And dominate it did. Over the next 4½ hours, FFX went from struggling to get a lead over 100 to increasing its lead past 1000 with relative ease. Then the morning vote hit, and Zelda did little more than slow FFX's gains down a bit. Were this a during-school vote, Zelda might have started cutting here. But with it being the week of Christmas, the trends were all diluted.
Zelda played the stall game, but the longer it stalled, the more it looked like FFX had this match won. Diluted trend or not, FFX held serve in the morning a lot longer than it might have during school time. It hit a lead of 1400 at 9:30, and then it just hovered there. And hovered. And hovered..... and then it hovered some more. Zelda looked like it would make a comeback attempt after a cut or two, but then FFX would take it all back. At one point, near noon of all times, the lead got near 1500 votes.
The match continued in hover mode, and then.... the clock turned 12. For Majora's Mask, be it noon or midnight, things go completely apes*** once the clock turns 12. For Majora's Mask, this meant 36 Hours Remain. The Moon didn't take kindly to being f***ed with.
In layman's terms, the lead was 1350 at noon. Zelda then went on a Halo-like daytime tear, scoring several updates over 55% and just all-around making FFX it's b****. There was almost no resistance at all from FFX during all this daytime afternoon Zelda dominance, and it was so one-sided Zelda only needed 4½ hours to get rid of the entire 1350 votes. Zelda continued flying upwards after this and began building its own lead, though not at the torrent pace of the comeback.
The goal for Zelda from here was building as big a lead as possible, because there was no way FFX wasn't going to make a push during the evening and second night vote phase. And build a lead it did. Over the next few hours, it would push upward to a near 450 vote lead.
This is where it stood with 5½ hours left, and this is where FFX began its own comeback attempt. 450 votes in 5½ hours is hardly impossible, but the issue here for FFX was that it was trying to come back against a Zelda game. FFX made its cuts, but Zelda would keep pushing back and keep things in stall-world. Every time FFX looked like it was getting ready to make a big push, Zelda would push back. Overall, however, FFX was gaining ground. It was almost like watching the stock market trend of gold, where even despite a few peaks and valleys the overall price continues going up -- only this was overall watching Zelda's lead going down.
Unfortunately for FFX, this would ultimately cost it the match. The constant back-and-forth kept gradually increasing the odds of a Zelda victory, and the match was all but over when Zelda still led by 400 with 2 hours left. FFX would finally get its ass in gear over the final two hours, but it was too little and too late and served as little more than window dressing. Zelda would go on to win this match by 211 votes, but one has to wonder how this match goes if FFX starts making the serious push a couple hours earlier. Zelda was obviously the game being rallied more by the voters -- the game people wanted to see win more, because for whatever dumb reason there's this pervasive "SQUARE ALWAYS WINS AND I HATE IT" mentality late in contests even though it wasn't won a contest in 5 years -- and Zelda ended up winning because its fans simply wanted it more.
There are many reasons you can cite for why a contest entrant wins a match close -- pictures, rallying, fanbases, companies, brackets and all the rest -- but this match was a throwback to how contests used to be. Just two sides going all-out late in a contest, with one close winner and one close loser. One elated game and one heartbroken game. One really happy fanbase and one really bitter fanbase. Sometimes, that's all you need for a great match. Here's hoping there are many more matches like this to come. You can have your x-stats and geo trends and oracles and calculators. I'll take my matches like this, where no amount of information can predict what happens and things exist entirely in the those unknown spots no amount of math can calculate.
Match Trends[]
