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Sum04b01

Results[]

Poll1718

Sunday, August 1st, 2004

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 1718
Division Hyrule Division
Match # 01
Match Date Sunday, August 1st, 2004
Vote difference 62,319
Oracle
Expectations
Link - 87.80%
84 for - 0 against
GameFAQs
Prediction
Link - 98.79%
(32,819 brackets)

CJayC flat-out told us that CATS was nothing more than a joke character, as well as LinkFodder, but appeased our appetite for the little guy by putting him in the contest anyway. Unfortunately for us, a glitched poll early in the match made us unable to see where all of the first votes went in the match. We were unable to see whether or not CATS got his standard early lead, and when the dust settled, Link was well on his way to a blowout win against the mistranslated favorite son of the CATS Army.

What was truly impoprtant about this match was that Link and Cloud now had a common opponent:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1313

Link wound up doing better against CATS than Cloud did by nearly a full percent, and the Extrapolated Statistics formula projected that Link could defeat Cloud's 2003 self with around 53% of the vote after this match. I'm not the biggest fan of set statistics trying to judge the transitivity -- or lack thereof -- among human opinion, but one quick look at the results of the finals shows that the Extrapolated Standing (Xst, for short) formula does work in cases where voting patterns remain static.

But still, in defense of Cloud, we were only one poll into the contest. Unfortunately, the "wait until next round before deciding where Link truly stands" philosophy was used by Cloud defenders throughout the contest, despite Link doing better than expected in every single one of his matches.

Match Trends[]

Graph1718

External Links[]

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2004 Summer Contest Matches

Round One
Link > CATS
Ganondorf > Alucard
Yoshi > Ryo Hazuki
Luigi > Pac-Man
Magus > Luca Blight
Crono > Conker
Bowser > Guybrush
Mario > JC Denton
Mega Man > Earthworm Jim
Tidus > Shadow
Vercetti > Max Payne
Zero > Protoman
Frog > Liquid
Master Chief > Crash
Knuckles > Kefka

Snake > Tanner
Cloud > Duke
Vyse > Laharl
Kirby > Kain
Squall > Bomberman
Ness > Jak
Auron > Scorpion
Vivi > Donkey Kong
Sephiroth > Sly Cooper
Sonic > Terry Bogard
Ryu > KOS-MOS
Tails > VJ
Dante > Ratchet
Sora > HK-47
Ryu H > Jill
Sam Fisher > Gordon
Samus > Lara

Round Two
Link > Ganondorf
Yoshi > Luigi
Crono > Magus
Mario > Bowser
Mega Man > Tidus
Zero > Vercetti
Frog > Master Chief
Snake > Knuckles
Cloud > Vyse
Squall > Kirby
Auron > Ness
Sephiroth > Vivi
Sonic > Ryu
Dante > Tails
Sora > Ryu H
Samus > Sam Fisher

R3 and following
Link > Yoshi
Crono > Mario
Mega Man > Zero
Snake > Frog
Cloud > Squall
Sephiroth > Auron
Sonic > Dante
Samus > Sora
Link > Crono
Mega Man > Snake
Cloud > Sephiroth
Samus > Sonic
Link > Mega Man
Cloud > Samus
Link > Cloud (Finals)

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