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Monday, September 12th, 2005

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 2121
Round 20XX Division Final
Match # 56
Match Date Monday, September 12th, 2005
Vote difference 33,676
Mega Man - 57.76%
72 for - 0 against
Mega Man - 54.38%
(18,377 brackets)

Sonic vs Mega Man: A big-time match in which we had no real idea who would win, save for those people who like to predict everything based off outdated stats. In a perfect world, every big match would have this much uncertainty going in. ~ Ulti

And that paragraph would turn out to be valid for all of one day.

Mega Man/Yoshi is barely a match worth analysing, because everyone knew that the divisional final would be Mega Man > Yoshi. The issue is that Yoshi was projected to score 35% in the match, but only pulled in 32%. Mega Man may not "officially" be known as a Nintendo character, but all of his most popular games were on the NES/SNES and one could easily blame SFF for Yoshi's underperformance. Incidentally, the only reason it wasn't worse was perhaps due to Mega Man not "officially" being Nintendo. But this match made it obvious that at least some of the voters view him this way, and after two lackluster wins this is the exact match that Mega Man needed going into his next opponent.

The main argument from Sonic > Mega fans was that Mega Man was not SFFd by Link in 2004. Yet Mega Man SFFing Yoshi but not being SFFd by Link makes absolutely no sense, and thus Mega's 2004 adjusted value is a valid one. The only chance in hell Sonic had of beating Mega in the next round was to either hope for a boost, to hope that Mega didn't boost or isn't viewed as Nintendo, or that Mega's match with Yoshi was a fluke -- All of which are very bad things to rely on, and Mega even had the bracket advantage going in. Sonic was in for an uphill climb, and there's no other way of looking at it.

Oh yeah, this match concluded our divisional final round, and from here on in it we had nothing more than the Elite 8 and Tournament of Champions.

Match Trends[]


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2005 Summer Contest Matches

Round One
Mario > Joanna
Ness > CJ
Zero > Ryu H
Lloyd > Wesker
Samus > Yuri
Frog > Riku
Ganondorf > Yuna
Auron > Big Boss
Snake > Manny
Zelda > Vivi
Alucard > Kratos
Sora > Agent 47
Kirby > Cecil
Tidus > King
Bowser > Chun Li

Ryu > Rikku
Master Chief > CATS
Donkey Kong > Sam Fisher
Vercetti > Kefka
Crono > Zidane
Dante > Terra
Vincent > Kerrigan
Knuckles > Magus
Squall > Geno
Sonic > Jin Kazama
Diablo > Kratos Aurion
Tifa > Vyse
Luigi > KOS-MOS
Mega Man > Conker
Leon > Gordon
Yoshi > Laharl
Pac-Man > Ocelot

Round Two
Mario > Ness
Zero > Lloyd
Samus > Frog
Ganondorf > Auron
Snake > Zelda
Sora > Alucard
Kirby > Tidus
Bowser > Ryu
Master Chief > DK
Crono > Vercetti
Vincent > Dante
Squall > Knuckles
Sonic > Diablo
Tifa > Luigi
Mega Man > Leon
Yoshi > Pac-Man

R3 and following
Mario > Zero
Samus > Ganondorf
Snake > Sora
Bowser > Kirby
Crono > Master Chief
Vincent > Squall
Sonic > Tifa
Mega Man > Yoshi
Mario > Samus
Snake > Bowser
Crono > Vincent
Mega Man > Sonic
Mario > Snake
Crono > Mega Man
Mario > Crono (Finals)

Tournament of

Link > Cloud

Sephiroth > Mario

Link > Sephiroth