Results[]
Round One
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 8 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 57 |
| Match Date | Thursday, November 19, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Metal Gear Solid - 76.93% 95 for - 1 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Metal Gear Solid - 85.77% |
Given 92% of people picked Mass Effect 2 to beat Virtue's Last Reward in this same division, I'm surprised only 86% picked the 1 seed to beat whatever the hell Splatoon is. Of all five MGS games to make this bracket, only the original looked okay in round 1. 2 looked awful against Resident Evil, 3 looked awful against Mother 3, 4 outright lost against Kingdom Hearts 2, and 5 looked awful against Perfect Dark.
The original was at least nice enough to only lose the board vote against Splatoon before shooting way up in percentage and finishing with the 79-21 beating. Not that this would save MGS from falling flat on its face later, but us series fans had to take what we could get when it happened. Remember, a lot of us thought 5 would boost this series to the moon, then the contest happened and almost every game fell way below expectations. Pair that with Mario Maker causing similar issues with the Mario series, and you had yourself one hell of a contest!
Comparing the 1 seed prediction percentages for round 1 is always fun:
Ocarina of Time - 95.61%
Link to the Past - 95.43%
Chrono Trigger - 92.68%
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 91.22%
Skyrim - 90.05%
Metal Gear Solid - 85.77%
Grand Theft Auto 5 - 84.99%
Final Fantasy 6 - 80.86%
Not too far off from what the strength of these games would be in order, I think. You could probably throw FF6 above Skyrim and have a pretty accurate list in order, though I suppose some people will argue Chrono Trigger never got a chance to prove itself. I say it got a chance and choked like it always does, but we'll get to that madness in due time.
Ctes's Analysis[]
At first glance this might look like another bad showing for Metal Gear Solid, but I actually really don't think it is. Getting fourth times as many votes is pretty great, even with your opponent being a Wii U exclusive having just been released. Super Mario 64 didn't get that much more than this against Mario Kart 8, and while Mario Kart 8 is a stronger Wii U title than Splatoon, Super Mario 64 is also a stronger game than Metal Gear Solid. People expected that match to be a bigger blowout too and some of the explanation as to why it wasn't can be used here as well. They games are very different. So you can shoot in both games here, they're nothing alike, from different times, on different systems, different demographics, different everything. As different as can be. I'm inclined to think Metal Gear Solid might have some anti-voting this contest. Everything taken into consideration this is a fine result.
That means this is the first Metal Gear Solid match where the MGS game did not disappoint. This was expected to be the strongest of them too, it's old enough for it to have some strength. There was no reason to worry about it not making the semi-finals at this point.