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Rivals-56

Results[]

Round Three

Poll4565

Monday, December 12, 2011


Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 4565
Division Northwest
Match # 56
Match Date Monday, December 12, 2011
Vote difference 708
Oracle
Expectations
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy - 56.71%
71 for - 1 against
GameFAQs
Prediction
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy - 34.52%
Battle Contest
Predictions

Banked: 146
Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy: 2474
Sora vs. Riku: 1596

For my money, this was the best match of the contest that actually counted. It bucked a lot of our trends and for quite a long time we had no clue who would win. It also caused every single whining crybaby to crawl out of the wall, including the biggest whiner of them all (iGenesis), which is always a plus.

The reason no one saw this coming is because Squall had beaten Sora 4 times in a row prior.

No matter the bracket placement or extraneous factors, no matter how close or how far away the match actually was, Squall won. So... 5th time's a charm, I guess?

After the first update, Sora went nuts and built a 100 vote lead pretty quickly. Then Squall started stalling and it was game on. Right about here is where all the whining began, because everyone assumed the match would stay too close overnight and Kingdom Hearts would just go nuts during the day.

Didn't really happen that way, though. Squall went totally nuts overnight, building up an 800 vote lead before the morning vote really began, and once the morning vote started.... nothing really happened. And nothing continued happening all the way up to the ASV where he led by more than 1500 votes. That right there is why Sora lost, because had he kept things closer in the morning he would have come back during the ASV and ruined everyone's day. It's also the trend few saw coming, but Sora is known for going crazy during the morning too.

The ASV still happened, of course, but all it meant was Sora would lose by 700 votes instead of 1500. Final Fantasy doesn't get much credit for having a good day vote since it isn't of Nintendo or Kingdom Hearts quality, but it can hold its own against the right competition. I think this match also shows that Seifer was a fraud, and that to an extent Kingdom Hearts has been the major reason for a lot of Square characters retaining their strength even as the games have aged. KINGDOM HEARTS FACTOR LIVES !!

With this upset also falling flat, it pretty much meant the rest of the contest was beyond predictable.

Match Trends[]

Graph4565

External Links[]

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Fall 2011 Contest Matches

Round One
Mario/Bowser > Jim/Queen
Ike/B.Knight > Conker/Poo
Kirby/M.Knight > Jill/Nemesis
Sonic/Robotnik > Katherine/Catherine
X/Zero > Falcon/Shadow
Bartz/Gilgamesh > Guybrush/LeChuck
DK/K.Rool > Ezio/Rodrigo
Sub-Zero/Scorpion > Leon/Ada
Red/Blue > Raynor/Kerrigan
Luigi/Waluigi > Cecil/Golbez
Ryu/Ken > Ratchet/Nefarious
Fox/Wolf > Yuna/Seymour
Samus/Ridley > Kid/Guy
Terra/Kefka > Vyse/Galcian
Chris/Wesker > Dan/Sagat

Big Boss/The Boss > Tidus/Jecht
Link/Ganon > Arthas/Illidan
Ammy/Orochi > Nook/Redd
Zidane/Kuja > Meat Boy/Dr. Fetus
MM/Wily > Banjo/Grunty
Phoenix/Edgeworth > Gordon/Breen
Alucard/Dracula > Shepard/Saren
Chell/GLaDOS > Ness/Giygas
Frog/Magus > Raiden/Vamp
Cloud/Seph > Lloyd/Kratos
Kratos/Zeus > Layton/Don Paolo
Pac-Man/Blinky > Crash/Cortex
Solid/Liquid > Crono/Lavos
Squall/Seifer > Laharl/Mid-Boss
Siegfried/Nightmare > Ramza/Delita
Dante/Vergil > Sol/Ky
Sora/Riku > BJ/Hitler

Round Two
Mario/Bowser > Ike/B.Knight
Sonic/Robotnik > Kirby/M.Knight
X/Zero > Bartz/Gilgamesh
Sub-Zero/Scorpion > DK/K.Rool
Red/Blue > Luigi/Waluigi
Ryu/Ken > Fox/Wolf
Samus/Ridley > Terra/Kefka
Big Boss/The Boss > Chris/Wesker
Link/Ganon > Ammy/Orochi
MM/Wily > Zidane/Kuja
Alucard/Dracula > Phoenix/Edgeworth
Frog/Magus > Chell/GLaDOS
Cloud/Seph > Kratos/Zeus
Solid/Liquid > Pac-Man/Blinky
Squall/Seifer > Siegfried/Nightmare
Sora/Riku > Dante/Vergil

R3 and following
Mario/Bowser > Sonic/Robotnik
X/Zero > Sub-Zero/Scorpion
Red/Blue > Ryu/Ken
Samus/Ridley > Big Boss/The Boss
Link/Ganon > MM/Wily
Alucard/Dracula > Frog/Magus
Cloud/Seph > Solid/Liquid
Squall/Seifer > Sora/Riku
Mario/Bowser > X/Zero
Red/Blue > Samus/Ridley
Link/Ganon > Alucard/Dracula
Cloud/Seph > Squall/Seifer
Mario/Bowser > Red/Blue
Link/Ganon > Cloud/Seph
Red/Blue > Cloud/Seph (3rd Place)
Link/Ganon > Mario/Bowser (Finals)

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