Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 8 Semi Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 49 |
| Match Date | Sunday, May 23rd, 2004 |
| Vote difference | 14,164 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 61.21% 54 for - 2 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 54.94% (22,492 brackets) |
Super Mario Brothers 3 was an absolute lock to make it out of its half division in this contest, yet only 55% of bracketmakers thought it would make it past this match. Even worse, this was not an impressive victory at all for the divisional favorite. I understand that Final Fantasy has the namebrand and the 8-Bit Theater strength attached to it (hence the high picture rating), but a divisional favorite not scoring 60% in the semifinal against an inferior opponent doesn't spell well for it in the future. This match reminded me of Mario's 55-45 flop against Shadow the Hedgehog in the Summer 2003 Contest in that it clearly showed that Mario was not his old self. Coincidentally, this is Mario's best game showing that it was not its old self in the match.
But in the interest of fairness, I think that there were some unseen factors involved in this match. Compare the prediction percentages between Mario 3 and Final Fantasy in each round:
Round 1
- Mario 3: 86.56%
- Final Fantasy: 96.46%
Round 2
- Mario 3: 72.04%
- Final Fantasy: 82.01%
Clearly, Final Fantasy was actually the favorite to win this match. I don't exactly think it was by a large amount, but the prediction percentages don't lie. Apparently this site really is FinalFantasyFAQs after all. You could name a game Final Fantasy: Dog Turds in Flight and see it enjoy huge amounts of success around here. That's simply the nature of the beast. So on the bright side of all this, Mario 3 won a match that it was supposed to lose 60-40. Whether or not this was simply a bump in the road remained to see seen, but thankfully for us fans, we could make a quick comparison between the division's two heavyweights in the match directly following this one.
Match Trends[]
