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Spr04b49

Results[]

Poll1649

Sunday, May 23rd, 2004

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 1649
Round Division 8 Semi Final
Match # 49
Match Date Sunday, May 23rd, 2004
Vote difference 14,164
Oracle
Expectations
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 61.21%
54 for - 2 against
GameFAQs
Prediction
Super Mario Bros. 3 - 54.94%
(22,492 brackets)

Super Mario Brothers 3 was an absolute lock to make it out of its half division in this contest, yet only 55% of bracketmakers thought it would make it past this match. Even worse, this was not an impressive victory at all for the divisional favorite. I understand that Final Fantasy has the namebrand and the 8-Bit Theater strength attached to it (hence the high picture rating), but a divisional favorite not scoring 60% in the semifinal against an inferior opponent doesn't spell well for it in the future. This match reminded me of Mario's 55-45 flop against Shadow the Hedgehog in the Summer 2003 Contest in that it clearly showed that Mario was not his old self. Coincidentally, this is Mario's best game showing that it was not its old self in the match.

But in the interest of fairness, I think that there were some unseen factors involved in this match. Compare the prediction percentages between Mario 3 and Final Fantasy in each round:

Round 1

  • Mario 3: 86.56%
  • Final Fantasy: 96.46%

Round 2

  • Mario 3: 72.04%
  • Final Fantasy: 82.01%

Clearly, Final Fantasy was actually the favorite to win this match. I don't exactly think it was by a large amount, but the prediction percentages don't lie. Apparently this site really is FinalFantasyFAQs after all. You could name a game Final Fantasy: Dog Turds in Flight and see it enjoy huge amounts of success around here. That's simply the nature of the beast. So on the bright side of all this, Mario 3 won a match that it was supposed to lose 60-40. Whether or not this was simply a bump in the road remained to see seen, but thankfully for us fans, we could make a quick comparison between the division's two heavyweights in the match directly following this one.

Match Trends[]

Graph1649

External Links[]

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2004 Spring Contest Matches

Round One
SMB3 > Metal Gear
Metroid > Pac-Man
Contra > Phantasy Star
FF > Pitfall
Donkey Kong > Duck Hunt
Zelda > Adventure
Pong > River City Ransom
Tetris > Galaga
CT > Secret of Mana
SMRPG > Street Fighter II
Sonic 2 > Shining Force
SMW > Simpsons
Zelda: LttP > Gunstar Heroes
Super Metroid > PS IV
Doom > Earthbound

FF VI > Mortal Kombat
FF VII > Suikoden II
Xenogears > Pokemon GSC
FFT > DDR
MGS > RE
SotN > Perfect Dark
Goldeneye > PDS
SM64 > NiGHTS
Zelda: OoT > Fallout 2
Starcraft > Halo
KH > Soul Calibur
Zelda: WW > Skies of Arcadia
Metroid Prime > Half-Life
FFTA > Fire Emblem
FF X > Shenmue
GTA: Vice City > KoTOR
SSBM > MGS 2

Round Two
SMB 3 > Metroid
FF > Contra
Zelda > Donkey Kong
Tetris > Pong
CT > SMRPG
SMW > Sonic 2
Zelda: LttP > Super Metroid
FF VI > Doom
FF VII > Xenogears
MGS > FFT
Goldeneye > SotN
Zelda: OoT > SM64
Starcraft > KH
Zelda: WW > Metroid Prime
FF X > FFTA
SSBM > GTA: Vice City

R3 and following
SMB3 > FF
Zelda > Tetris
CT > SMW
Zelda: LttP > FF VI
FF VII > MGS
Zelda: OoT > Goldeneye
Starcraft > Zelda: WW
SSBM > FF X
SMB3 > Zelda
CT > Zelda: LttP
FF VII > Zelda: OoT
SSBM > Starcraft
CT > SMB3
FF VII > SSBM
FF VII > CT (Finals)

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