Results[]
Friday, April 10, 2020
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 8 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 57 |
| Match Date | Friday, April 10, 2020 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Skyrim - 84.77% 59 for - 0 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Skyrim - 95.40% |
| User Votes |
Skyrim - 7354 Subnautica - 1363 |
| Anonymous Votes |
Skyrim - 5975 Subnautica - 1216 |
Some indie games looked okay in this contest. Most did not. Subnautica was one of the ones that served as happy-to-be-here early round fodder. The name of the game in this match was not whether or not Skyrim would win; we all knew it was a guaranteed blowout. Skyrim was scoreboard-watching. It had to equal or outperform the likes of Witcher 3, Dark Souls, Persona 5, or any other hopeful game from the bottom half of the bracket. Skyrim's aspirations were to make the final, and anything less would have been a disappointment.
The stats topic gets made fun of a lot for wild projections based off of early match performance, but we're often right. Go look at the updater. See how Skyrim was below 70% at the beginning of this match? Go compare that board vote to Witcher 3 and Dark Souls. Skyrim was screwed. I know Skyrim rose to 84%, but early board votes are often indicative of what's in store. No one on GameFAQs knows or cares what Subnautica is. Skyrim losing the board vote to it, or showing any weakness whatsoever, was unconscionable. I regretted my Skyrim > Witcher 3 pick immediately, and my gut instinct was not wrong. Most of us have that intuition for a reason. We knew Skyrim was screwed right from the jump. We knew Xenoblade was a threat to win its division right from the jump. Among other things. Get used to Skyrim losing board votes, because it's apparently the new Final Fantasy 7 -- that is, the internet decided it was cool to hate on Skyrim for literally no reason other than being popular. Yes I'm aware Bethesda is trash now, but how is that Skyrim's fault?
Final note before I move on. When looking into all the games this year, Subnautica reminded me of a long-standing hatred of mine -- people who record fake reaction videos for clicks. Streamers in general tend to be complete losers, but there aren't many things dumber than setting up a camera and recording yourself getting "freaked out" by something. We all know you're acting. Knock it off.
Speaking of streamers, Twitch is about to turn into a thoroughly useless web site. I mentioned idiotic reaction videos on camera for attention just now. Well here is Steph Loehr, a member of the new Twitch Safety Advisory Council, pretending to be a deer on stream: https://twitter.com/M101News/status/1261525361793339397?s=20
In a previous livestream Steph called for voice communication to be banned from online gaming because, according to Steph, it gives [normal people] a massive advantage. However, later she admitted that the real reason she wanted voice chat banned in-game was because she’d be ‘constantly harassed by cis-gendered gamers’ on the platform.
Ferociously Steph also stated that it is a fact that all white cis-gendered gamers are neo-Nazis, or rather white supremacists, and this is something she plans on changing by “banning these assholes” with her newfound powers.
“I have power, they can’t take it away from me, and, honestly, there are some people that should be afraid of me and they are because I represent ‘diversity’. I am going to come for all these people. If you’re a really shitty person I’m going to come for you, period,” Steph said during her livestream.
I just cannot figure out why people are abandoning the left in record numbers. Can you imagine having to be associated with this literal human trash? And yes, I said human trash. You are not a fucking deer and you full well know it. There is a huge subset of people with massive mental illness issues who use the LGBT community as a safe haven for mental illness instead of actually getting help. I live in the tri-state area, and I know a lot of great gay people around here. They absolutely cannot stand these people who use gays as a cultural shield, because it makes a mockery of trying to get equal rights in the first place.
That's how bad round one of this contest was. It has me talking about how streaming has long since peaked and is only going to collapse from here. And I say good. 99% of these partnered streamers are literal trash cans.
Ctes's Analysis[]
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim had a rough contest. It was consider the favorite by the board to reach the finals and get the honor of being the final game Breath of the Wild beats, so it could basically only underperform from expectations. Furthermore, the other #1 seeds in the bottom half had board 8’ers defending them at any chance, while Skyrim really lacked anybody doing that. The Witcher 3, which was from the start generally considered the most likely game to take the spot in the finals from Skyrim, had begun its contest run by exceeding expectations, so Skyrim could really only disappoint today.
It got 84% against a game that is pretty different from it and that’s on top of any potential Bethesda backlash it might have been a victim of, which really starts to matter when you hit the big numbers. I don’t think it was a bad performance, although some was making it out to be because Subnautica is expected to be extremely weak. It’s not that it’s a bad game, but it’s no big name and it’s not a thing for us, that much is true. But Skyrim got below 80% here and I think that was what it needed to be in contention for the spot in the finals it could hope for.
The Witcher 3 looked better in round 1 for sure, but there was no telling what either of them was truly capable of yet. We couldn’t say much about the Bethesda anti-voting yet, but it seems pretty clear it’s there later on. It’s hard to grasp how much of a difference that makes. Like, Cloud Strife will probably never be the character to score the big blowouts again. Final Fantasy VII got that against them a long time ago for “always winning”. For a while, they started out looking bad at every chance, but still did just fine in the end. Because the round 1 matches were as big blowouts as they were, it wasn’t yet time to lose all hope of Skyrim reaching the finals. The Witcher 3 might have tilted the favorite status slightly, and Skyrim sure heard of that, but it was still reasonable to hope for it.
The oracles predicted this match almost perfectly. I mean, we’ve been closer to the consensus than 0.77% before, although that’s still good. But the worst prediction still got 44.30 points. That’s pretty darn great. Despite that, people were ready to throw dirt at Skyrim right away. A big reason for that is its horrible board vote, which was a good hint of the expected Bethesda anti-voting. Most people don’t see the percentages at the end of the day and Skyrim rose throughout the day, though not as much as in future matches, which says a lot about Subnautica. It was judged from when the match began, and I know trends aren’t what they used to be, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be shifts. I’ll probably defend it quite a bit, because I think it needs to be mentioned in any Game of the Decade debate even if what it did so well has been improved upon now, and nothing that is wrong with Bethesda has to do with Skyrim. It didn’t deserve all the hate.
Safer777's Analysis[]
So we have Skyrim here. It is one of the Top 5 games on the Decade everywhere and on this site too. The real question is what place does Skyrim get's in this contest? I have it reaching the finals but I do believe Witcher 3 can beat it. Witcher is extremely popular now especially with the Netflix show. And even the company announced a Witcher 4 game even though they had said that Witcher 3 would be the last. And they would have been stupid to not release more games, I mean seriously. As for Skyrim...it has to be in every console that has come since 2011. Seriously this thing is everywhere. Everyone that plays videogames have heard it, the memes, the mods, everything. 9 years have passed and this thing isn't slowing down. I mean the company hasn't even show a gameplay video of ES 6 and why they should rush to make another game? I mean this thing still sells like crazy and people constantly play it. I mean even on this site after 9 years it is still the number 2 most popular game.As for Subnautica...another indie game. Joy.
So for the match. The only thing that mattered is if Skyrim would score under 80% because that would mean it is weak now, or if it scored above 90% because that would mean it is the strongest game here. But nothing happened, so Skyrim did as expected. So that is. 2nd highest prediction of Round 1 of the contest too. Okay it makes sense.
Tsunami's Analysis[]
84.00%. A nice round number, the type of match that perfect Oracle predictions are made of. And I threw one away! Among the many games that this board plays to liven up the contest even more is the "Spread Betting" topic. Allegedly the spreads are set by the Oracle picks, but having just been told by the Analysis Crew (and having done my own research and agreeing) that Subnautica would be a contender for weakest game in the bracket, I figured that Skyrim covering the spread was the smart pick, then checked my Oracle prediction to make sure that it was high enough to cover the spread.
The Oracle consensus, even after me raising my prediction from 84% even to 86.67%, was only 84.77%. The average of the lowest and highest predictions was roughly 85.5%. Where the hell did they get -72 from?!
So, yeah, Subnautica's weak, but getting 16% on Skyrim easily takes it out of contention for weakest game in the bracket. Far weaker games than Skyrim got higher percentages in R1.