Results[]
Thursday, December 3, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 5 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 105 |
| Match Date | Thursday, December 3, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 66.67% 78 for - 0 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 77.77% |
This was the second match in a row where Ocarina looked completely off, though at least this time it had an excuse. Seriously, what is that Ocarina picture? It looks like Link is giving oral to some blue thing, not playing a musical instrument. Pair that with Final Fantasy 9 getting the best picture it can possibly get, and you're just begging for an underperformance.
This match was in the 65-35 range for the entire match, which is a relative surprise given FF9's day vote. FF9 in general had an absolutely amazing contest, from winning the day vote against Kingdom Hearts to blowout out Okami, to helping show us that Ocarina was completely doomed the second it made the final. There was nothing in the bottom half of the bracket that was going to beat Ocarina, but whatever got to the final from the top half was clearly going to beat it. Ocarina underperforming against FF9 was one of the many warning signs of this.
Ctes' Analysis[]
As you'd expect, the Ocarina of Time match of round 3 gets to be one of the more boring ones. As I've said before, some games just have to run into the powerhouses in these contests unless you want to go back to removing the strongest entries, but I don't think we can actually do that when we don't have contests on a more regular basis. Final Fantasy IX definitely shouldn't be a game to face that though, because the game surely has some new found strength in recent years, where it seems to have become the cult favorite. I'm honestly not sure why, but fans of the series seems to view it as the best game now. I think perhaps it's a natural consequence of the game first standing in the shadows of its two precedents, Final Fantasy VII in particular, then being completely overshadowed by the great Final Fantasy X, which introduced a ton of new elements and visually completely stole the spotlight. I suppose some people looked back and thought “We forgot about this one. It's really underrated!” and games being underrated for quite a while can sometimes have the opposite follow. Now it's overrated. At least I think so. Perhaps it was a bit underrated, but there's a reason it stood in the shadows. It doesn't reach the highs of VII and X nor is it as unique as VIII. Gameplay wise it's really good, but Final Fantasy is very driven by its stories and characters, both of which departments Final Fantasy IX lacks in. It makes sense Final Fantasy X overshadowed it when Tidus is basically Zidane done right. It's a good game, don't get me wrong, but why does it suddenly If It Were Up to Board 8? It lost in round one five years ago!
Anyway, it does have solid contest strength now, so for someone like me who doesn't get why its so popular all of a sudden, it's just exciting to see it in action in these contests. It that sense, it feels kinda wasted going against Ocarina of Time, but at least it provided a highly entertaining first round match. It also got to embarrass Ocarina of Time in the eyes of the average contest follower, though I don't think Ocarina of Time looks too bad today. The Suikoden II match was worse in that regard, but I'm still willing to believe Suikoden II got stronger. If you believe Final Fantasy IX is about equal to Final Fantasy X now, then it's not too bad. This is around what we adjusted Final Fantasy X to get in Ocarina of Time in 2009 and quite a bit below what it's expected to get against it in 2004.
Of course, it seemed like Final Fantasy X had fallen quite a bit in strength, which does make Ocarina of Time underperform today. However, parts of what made Final Fantasy X look bad was its SNES opponents clearly being stronger. People might underestimate a bit just how much Final Fantasy IX has grown in these things. Ocarina of Time has fallen a bit, but it's probably only a result of being the defending champion. Its anti-votes is the full cause of it I think, so adjust for those and we have the same strength of the game. Besides, it's not like Ocarina of Time would ever be troubled before the final where it was supposed to have a great match with Chrono Trigger, but would likely face a rally force in Undertale instead now.