Results[]
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 5 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 81 |
| Match Date | Wednesday, November 25, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 83.86% 89 for - 0 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 87.94% |
A few writeups ago, I said not all doublings are created equal. Well not triplings are created equal either. I feel like this poll is very relevant, even if there was SFF involved: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1617-division-32-64-round-1-final-fantasy-vii-vs-suikoden-ii
I usually don't link to the Oracle since finding specific matches on that site is a pain in the ass, but for this match the Oracle is definitely worth directly linking you all to: http://oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SC2k15&type=match&match=81
Just about everyone expected Zelda to get well within the 80% range here, and for good reason. Suikoden 2 is complete fodder in these contests, and Ocarina was the overwhelming favorite to win this contest. So when Zelda went out there and only had 75% at the beginning, everyone was completely stunned. Link and Ocarina of Time have been a dominant force in these contests for more than a decade, and I have to equate Link's empire to the New England Patriots. The Patriots are dominant, if not devious as hell, and have won 4 titles.
They could easily have more. If not for ridiculous catches by Mario Manningham and David Tyree (as well as a dumb drop by Asante Samuel), the Pats have 6 rings and an undefeated season right now. You could even make the case they should have more rings than even that, if not for some very weird upsets in the AFC playoffs over the years.
The point here is that when you beat the Patriots, you barely beat them. It feels like it takes divine intervention to do it. Same for Link or Ocarina of Time in these contests. When you beat the Zelda empire, you barely do it. I'll get into this more when discussing the final, but you get the idea. So when Ocarina of Time went out there and gave us this awful performance, it was an eye-opener. Zelda had shown no weakness whatsoever in this contest until this very match, but then Sukoden 2 went out there and showed us that voters were very much anti-voting Ocarina. This began a very surreal trend of the Zelda series showing it was very "off" this contest, which was odd because until this match it was absolutely dominant.
The voters made their allegiances clear. People are beyond sick of Zelda winning all the time.
Ctes' Analysis[]
This match served as the first hint that Ocarina of Time received some anti-voting after winning last time. I mean, a tripling shouldn't be a bad thing, but in this match you would expect Ocarina of Time to do better. It has showed itself to be ridiculously strong, Suikoden II has not. That said, I don't believe this was as bad as most people made it out to be. Suikoden II sucked in the past, but it has all the reason to have gotten stronger. It's from the childhood of a large chunk of GameFAQs. It's well respected. It's on the Playstation. It's shouldn't be that bad! Last round it won a debated match without breaking a sweat. You can translate that to Monster Hunter 4 being recent and weak, but I don't think it's only that. Only two people in the oracle challenge prediction a percentage for Ocarina of Time lower than this, one of them won this match and the other finished seventh. The rest of us lined up in order of lowest percentage highest and highest percentage lowest. That would make this a disappointing performance and while I'm not saying it isn't, well, it's not that bad either.
Ocarina of Time had little to no reason to worry about losing to anything but rallies at this point anyway, with the little recent coming from Chrono Trigger's incredible performances. That said, should Chrono Trigger be a threat, the general idea was that Zelda fans would spawn and vote for it like usual. I believe the disappointing performance from Ocarina of Time today comes from the fact that it's the defending champion now, and of course Link's many victories. Though then the question remains how there appeared to be no anti-voting against Hearthstone. I mean, if there was, Hearthstone is hands down the weakest game ever, but it's pretty clear there wasn't, so why should Hearthstone be an exception to anti-votes? My best guess is rally fear. The core of GameFAQs might want to see Ocarina of Time lose, but not to outside forces. Hearthstone was the biggest contender for a large outside rally pre-contest due to the huge amount of users on its subreddit. People were prepared. In retrospect it's a little stupid. Rallies need momentum, you don't get momentum starting out against Ocarina of Time in round 1, Allen probably knew that too when making the bracket. In any case, that's the best possible explanation. Though we'd still have to watch Ocarina of Time's next matches to be certain that it truly was anti-votes and not just Suikoden II being legit.