Results[]
Thursday, April 9, 2020
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 7 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 56 |
| Match Date | Thursday, April 09, 2020 |
| Oracle Expectations |
The Last of Us - 82.52% 60 for - 0 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
The Last of Us - 94.41% |
| User Votes |
The Last of Us - 7198 Crusader Kings II - 1656 |
| Anonymous Votes |
The Last of Us - 6198 Crusader Kings II - 1254 |
Just how many fodderific games were in this bracket? My goodness, there are only so many ways to talk about all these round one blowouts. I understand seeded tournaments as well as anyone -- trust me on that, the NCAAs are my favorite sporting event and is half the reason I fell in love with these contests in the first place -- but this contest was legitimately seeded too well. Octopath Traveler and Mario Kart 8 were the only major seed upsets, and everything else was chalk. I'm sure Crusader Kings 2 is a fine game, but it had no shot here.
For those of us who picked The Last of Us to win this division by beating Dark Souls, this was a pretty good result. We thought that match was always going to be close (remember, the leak for Last of Us 2 didn't happen until the tail end of April and it totally threw us for a loop), so Last of Us had to go out there and put up a comparable performance to Dark Souls scoring an 83-17 blowout over Hotline Miami.
It did just that. 82-18 over Crusader Kings 2 is about as comparable as it gets to what Dark Souls did, so The Last of Us was right on track with what it needed to do. If only we knew what was coming. What an absolute disaster.
Ctes's Analysis[]
The Last of Us was a very hot upset pick to win the division pre-contest. No other upset pick was taken by as many in round 4 and the division 4 favorite was taken by only 2 more. The reason for this was that The Last of Us looked straight up better than Dark Souls in 2015. Dark Souls is considered very influential, but The Last of Us also got a lot of awards and prestige back when it came out.
Dark Souls looks pretty good right off the bad, so The Last of Us had something to live up. The popular opinion is that it did not manage to do that. It’s also what ended up being true. Crusader Kings II was brought up when people considered what the weakest game in the bracket might be. It’s an eight year old PC exclusive strategy game that wasn’t all too popular. It basically has nothing going on for it. It’s the type of game that we absolutely don’t care about here. It’s not even a niche thing, we just straight up don’t care.
That said, you could with good reason give The Last of Us the benefit of the doubt today. It doesn’t really matter how much you get above 80%. Up there it’s way too uncertain. The Last of Us also got an opponent that it has less overlap with than Dark Souls did. It wasn’t out of the question just yet. Ironically, at this point we thought it was a bad thing The Last of Us 2 had not come out yet and perhaps people were annoyed about the delay. That’s nothing compared to what was to come.
Safer777's Analysis[]
TLOU is one of these games that people say it is one of the best games of all time and almost everyone agrees. It is excellent from a story perspective because the gameplay isn't anything special. But still it is an amazing game. Just play it if you haven't done it by now. Yeah it is a post apocalyptic game with zombie like enemies but don't let that fool you. CK2...I haven't heard it. It is a Real Time Strategy game and these games are always timesinkers and it seems that the fans are really dedicated but we all knew that it would really weak.
So for the match. People thought this would be the biggest blowout on the contest and I agreed too, but it wasn't like that in the end. Still a huge victory as expected of course. But as I said many times against such weak games you can't judge a game power. I want to know though who exactly nominated CK2. I mean do people in this site play these kind of games? I am going to say no.
Tsunami's Analysis[]
No meaningful conclusions could be drawn from this match, because Crusader Kings II was always going to be weak. But still, is it really stronger than Hotline Miami? Because it got a better percentage on TLoU than Hotline Miami got on Dark Souls, and the 2015 X-Stats say that TLoU should be stronger than Dark Souls. Technically speaking, they say that The Last of Us should actually get a higher percentage on Dark Souls in the division final than on Arkham City in the division semis, but Arkham City was in the top half of Division 1 which means its X-Stat number is horribly distorted by the collective delusion that a.) Chrono Trigger would've won in the absence of rallies and b.) that matters. Because it doesn't matter. Rallies have always been a part of the contest. Many of our greatest contest matches were great because both sides were rallying. And I guess they were fine with that because even if they shifted the outcome, they probably didn't shift the percentage that drastically. But when one side manages to tap into a source of votes that the other can't match, suddenly we have to correct for what "should be" instead of what is. And once a rally has knocked someone off, there's no longer any need to account for logic in projecting what "should have" happened. I'll say it again: Yes, Chrono Trigger was indirectly stronger than Final Fantasy VII in 2015. You can see it in the actual percentages they got against Melee and you can see it in the percentages that Allen was kind enough to provide for "registered voters only" for all of both Melee's and Undertale's matches. Wouldn't have mattered. Final Fantasy VII won't lose to a fellow Square game. There was a pair of PotD's shortly before the contest, one for "What is your favorite Final Fantasy game" and one between the top two vote-getters of that poll for "which of these two do you like more". Both times, FFVII lost to FFVI, and then FFVII still narrowly broke 60% when they faced each other in the Division 2 Finals.
Also, let's take a look at those "registered user only" numbers, and pretend they're the actual numbers. Note that this isn't the same as subjecting the 2015 contest to 2018/2020 rules because we don't know what the registered/unregistered splits are and either way, 2-1 isn't the same as 1-0. Looking at Melee's percentages against Undertale and Chrono Trigger, Undertale would be projected to get 22.33% on Chrono Trigger.
- Undertale vs. Mass Effect 3 - 29.49% 70.51%
Fallout 3 vs. Undertale - 75.67% 24.33%
Undertale vs. Super Mario World - 19.28% 80.72%
Pokemon Red/Blue vs. Undertale - 76.30% 23.70%
Undertale vs. Super Mario 64 - 26.21% 73.79%
Smash Bros. Melee vs. Undertale - 69.59% 30.41%
Undertale vs. Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 33.44% 66.56%
Yes, Super Mario World, the game that started hemorrhaging percentage to Animal Crossing: New Leaf when Undertale started rallying against ME3, is projected to beat Chrono Trigger by this metric. It's probably misleading because it's only looking at "logged in", not the age of the account--while it's possible that Undertale legitimately picked up a bandwagon here on GameFAQs, it's far more likely that Undertale's percentage rises each round after the SMW match because more of the people rallied from off-site had accounts, possibly because they wanted to taunt the "butthurt" people (though I'm pretty sure that BracketEntry was a false flag operation by someone from Undertale's camp, or possibly even Draven's camp because honestly the LoL bunch seemed like the bigger group of trolls and Allen basically set things up to exclude the game from the contest).
So, yeah, that happened then, and Allen conceded to give longtime GameFAQs users (well, anyone who had an account at any point before the contest began and still remembered how to log into it) a greater say, and it...flipped a grand total of three matches last contest, probably only one of which actually made B8 happy, and through pretty much all of Round 1 there hasn't been a single match whose outcome would've changed no matter how the votes were counted because registered and unregistered voters, while their percentages have varied, have always chosen the same game.