Results[]

Thursday, April 16, 2020
Ulti's Analysis[]
Division | Division 5 |
---|---|
Match # | 83 |
Match Date | Thursday, April 16, 2020 |
Oracle Expectations |
Fallout: New Vegas - 52.12% 40 for - 13 against |
GameFAQs Prediction |
Fallout: New Vegas - 48.31% |
User Votes |
Fallout: New Vegas - 4743 Dark Souls III - 4338 |
Anonymous Votes |
Fallout: New Vegas - 5649 Dark Souls III - 4243 |
This was one of the stranger matches of the contest. There was some slight buzz for Dark Souls 3 potentially winning this match by jumping aboard the Souls hype train, but ultimately New Vegas was the favorite, as it should have been. I'm sure when everyone prepped their bracket, they all did the same math.
Fallout: New Vegas (2015g) VS Dark Souls (2015g)
Fallout: New Vegas has a strength of 27.79.
Dark Souls has a strength of 25.11.
Fallout: New Vegas wins with 54.82% of the vote!
A win of 5,871 with 60,875 total votes cast.
Even assuming a blanket and universal Souls boost due to the title of this contest being "Game of the Decade", Dark Souls 3 would have to boost well beyond where Dark Souls was in 2015, on top of New Vegas falling off. New Vegas was not going to fall off given it doesn't have the Bethesda stench all over it, so it stood to reason that New Vegas would win the match in the 55-45 range.
On top of that, I'm a big, big fan of the Souls games. I've played them all, and in three of them (Dark Souls 1, Bloodborne, Sekiro) I have platinum trophies. I'll probably do the same for Dark Souls 2 at some point, oddly enough, because I love that one more than most people. Given all that, I would have been floored had Dark Souls 3 won this match. I've mentioned this before, but Dark Souls 3 came out after Bloodborne and felt like the most absurd step backwards imaginable. We went from perfectly fluid combat and aggression to back to "Hold L1 and wait". Yes, I am aware you don't have to use a shield and things like dodging and magic are a thing. Not the point. The game is hella slow compared to the previous one, and it's impossible to play Dark Souls 3 after Bloodborne and feel okay about it. Good game, but the shark had been jumped by this point.
Ergo, a 55-45 match felt correct. How we got there, though, was quite strange. At the freeze, New Vegas had 57% of the vote. It started with 60, but hey, no cause for concern right?
"Whoops."
With the first update, New Vegas's lead went from 81 to..... 81. Things stayed fairly close for the next few updates, too, though New Vegas was slowly climbing.
Then this match went straight to Funkytown. Did you guys know that on top of the typical rallying spots for Souls-type games, there is apparently a big community to draw from if hentai rallies are your thing? Yeah I didn't know that either and would have loved to go my whole life without knowing this, but if I had to learn this information than so do you. Yes, there is Souls hentai and people were rallying those people to this match with it.
Thankfully, the New Vegas subreddit had a rally of their own that dwarfed anything Dark Souls 3 did, and that was a wrap for the match. Both sides rallied a bunch, but in the end, New Vegas was able to come out on top in the predictable 55-45 type match we all expected. "Come out on top" might not be the best choice of words given the subject material, but hey. It is what it is. New Vegas won fairly easily and finally got to enjoy making it to round 3 of a contest, joining its brethren, Fallout 3, which accomplished this feat twice.
Ctes's Analysis[]
Fallout: New Vegas was the heavy board favorite here, which should be a little surprising given how close the match was and the trends the contest had, but it’s a match that highlights very nicely how many experts we have. A general trend we’ve seen in the contest so far had been that the Soulsborne games have looked very good and they’ve also been some of the most memorable and defining games of the decade. Another general thing is that Bethesda has gone downhill quite a bit since the beginning of the decade, although they started it very high. Fallout was certainly a stronger series the last time we had a games contest, where both Fallout 3 and New Vegas were looking better than Dark Souls, but times change.
The people that did not consider a Soulsborne boost, but simply looked at previous stats likely all picked New Vegas today without thinking twice about it. For once that worked out nicely, but it was a close call. New Vegas got less today than it was projected to get against Dark Souls in 2015. We still predicted this one very nicely in the oracle though. The Souldborne boost was clear this time, but people also knew that Dark Souls III would not be nearly as strong as the first one. It appears to be that it’s closer within the fanbase, but overall, the first one has gathered so much more respect. The third one is basically what the first one was five years ago.
The overall boost could’ve easily been enough to win this match, especially if you thought the Bethesda decline would strike New Vegas today. Yet the board also correctly expected that New Vegas would not be harmed much by this, because it wasn’t developed by Bethesda, but only published by them. Of course, there are almost always exceptions, and it was reasonable to go higher on New Vegas or pick Dark Souls III, but this result was the general consensus on the board. New Vegas would have the edge, but it would be close. I think our board as a whole deserves some respect every now and then for things like this. It’s often brought up when we collectively screw up, so let’s bring it up when the opposite happens. The board seemed confident about this, and it’s not often you see us being so confident in a match as close in percentage as this one. It’s one thing when we had a Link vs. Cloud like this every year and we knew what would happen, but this was impressive.
Safer777's Analysis[]
So this match did had a rally on DS subreddit but here is the thing. It did brought votes but they were around 50-50 for both games. So why? Because if you have played any of the modern Fallout games FNV is your favorite and the best out of all them. So yeah even though DS 3 is a different genre you can't really vote against FNV here. Now IF DS 1 was here then maybe it could do it sure, but not DS 3.
So for the match. Well FNV started at around 57 on the match, then it dropped to around 53 and basically stayed there for hours and that was it. So yeah rally votes but it didn't affected this match at all. I mean at the end FNV started even gaining percentage. Still a close match but in the end FNV wasn't never in any danger even with the rallies. Still good result from DS 3 since it seems to be the weaker of the DS games.
Tsunami's Analysis[]
The prediction percentage suggests that this was a toss-up in voters' minds. Only 48.31% got this right, down from 91.38% who had New Vegas reaching Round 2. Dark Souls III also had a R1 prediction percentage above 85%, so it's not the other entry's fault.
The match failed to live up to their expectations, settling into a groove where the last 18.5 hours had the percentage between 53.69% and 54.19%, finishing at 53.96%. A good percentage by the loser, but never in doubt.