Results[]
Round One
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 3 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 21 |
| Match Date | Tuesday, November 10, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Fallout 3 - 77.76% 104 for - 2 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Fallout 3 - 92.72% |
This match was a very predictable blowout, especially on the back of Fallout 4 hype and ultimately being released during the contest itself (Fallout 4 was actually released on the day of this match). I have no idea what Life is Strange even is outside of it being tumblr: The Video Game, but it was getting like 19% of the vote for almost the entire match.
Speaking of tumblr, let's get into why this match was a lot more intriguing than your typical 73-27 blowout. Remember when I said Life is Strange had 19% of the vote for most of this match? Well we were bound to have the new multi-poll format have unintended consequences, and polls sharing the spotlight with Undertale's rally were clearly and obviously affected.
In the late afternoon, right when the big rally started, Fallout 3 had 80% of the vote. Undertale's rally, which had nothing to do with this match whatsoever, directly caused Fallout 3 to drop all the way down to 72.55%. It would be a very clear warning sign for what would happen in round 2, but we'll get to that in due time. For Fallout 3 to bleed this badly against a complete nobody opponent was a bad sign that it would be defenseless against a big-time rally. Losing 8% in seven hours is no joke.
Ctes's Analysis[]
Fallout 3 came into this match looking like a beast. I know Life of Strange is fodder, but for a Western game to put up 80% on anything is quite impressive. Fallout 3 was looking really strong and while the people that picked it over SMW would always be stupid, well, at least Fallout 3 looked good here. This was a boring match match and we knew that already before it started.
Well, that is until around the 18th hour mark and things changed rapidly. It did in no way change the outcome here or get close to it, but it was still quite remarkable. Fallout 3 has over 80% of the vote when suddenly the Undertale rally attempted was reblogged by people with followers and that match went crazy. It turns out that tumblr prefers Life is Strange above Fallout 3 apparently! In the remaining 6 hours Fallout 3 didn't stop winning updates, but bled percentage like crazy. Don't be fooled by the final result, because Fallout 3 destroyed. Fallout 3 was never in doubt to reach round 3 before but now it was suddenly looking to be in serious danger.