Results[]
Round One
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 8 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 61 |
| Match Date | Friday, November 20, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 74.43% 96 for - 1 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 82.53% |
Is this the most embarrassing 70-30 win in contest history?
I'm not even joking. This really might be the worst 70-30 win in contest history. Most people in the Oracle picked MGS3 to do better than this, and for good reason. Unless Mother 3 got some rerelease that I'm unaware of, the game only got released in Japan. The only way for American gamers to play it is through fan translations on an emulator or by importing, meaning you have to be a very dedicated Mother series fan to even know what in the hell Mother 3 is. I know GameFAQs is JRPG Central and is exactly the kind of site that would put a game like Mother 3 over, but even by our warped standard, Mother 3 is really obscure.
Then there's the match picture, which cracks me up every time I see it. Mother 3's box art is literally just a red box with "Mother 3" on it. That's it. There is no reason for this game to have any strength whatsoever, and the case can really be made that it should be the weakest game in the field, if not one of the weakest. You could also make the case that a vast majority of Mother 3's voters are actually just Smash Brothers fans throwing in a vote for Lucas.
Either way, there is no reason MGS3 shouldn't have been able to godstomp Mother 3 right out of this contest. Yet there it was, proving the MGS series was absolutely fucked in this contest. Yes 4 of the 5 games that made the bracket won their first match, but only MGS1 looked any good in doing so. 2, 3, and 5 all looked awful, and 4 just outright lost. It lost to a strong game, don't get me wrong, but it still lost. It would not take long for us to see the newfound MGS series weakness in action, either. Some rather hilarious upsets were brewing.
Also, this is random but it's hilarious how both Mother games were in one division. One of those hilarious little bracket quirks that pops up now and again.
Ctes's Analysis[]
Mother 3 was one of the games we predicted to be in from SBAllen's hints. He said that a single one of 128 was never released in America, it obviously had to be Mother 3. It also helped of figure out what games came from 1994, there weren't many so people weren't sure about Earthbound, but this meant EarthBound would have to be in as well. Anyway, it is really impressive that a game can get in despite only being released in Japan. I'm sure that Smash shouldhave some of the credit for it. I know it made it in last contest as well, but GotD had a much smaller library of games that could enter. I really hope Nintendo decided to give EarthBound an ending now that EarthBound beginnings was released on Virtual Console last year.
Anyway, Metal Gear Solid 3 had a lot to show today. Most people predicted it to lose the division finals to the original Metal Gear Solid, but a good chunk of people had Mass Effect 2 getting past it. The first Mass Effect had proven itself worthy and the idea was that the second one was stronger due to it being the most well received. At the same time as this match went on, Mass Effect 2 was destroying its opponent badly, though it's hard to judge how much of an accomplishment that was when Virtue's Last Reward sounds like a contender for absolute worst game in the bracket.
As for this match on its own, Metal Gear Solid 3 looks pretty bad honestly. Mother 3 is exclusive to Japan, it's not supposed to break 30% on any game that people considered taking to the semi-finals. Doesn't matter if this is the weakest quadrant, that was a red flag for the Metal Gear Solid franchise once again. This was another disappointing performance. No offense meant towards Mother 3, but it has a terrible playrate. Mother 3 surprised us all last contest too by scoring 35% on Devil May Cry 3, but wouldn't you expect MGS3 to beat DMC3 by a bit more? To provide more perspective, Devil May Cry 3 got 35% on Metroid Prime in round 2. I think Metroid Prime vs. Metal Gear Solid 3 would have been a debated match too, but judging by this, it would be a very easy win for Metroid Prime.
Metal Gear Solid 3 greatly disappointed today. It was still the favorite against Mass Effect 2, but there was reason to be worried. Mother 3 shouldn't have gotten a nostalgia boost either or anything. I know the people supporting it are all EarthBound supporters, but many EarthBound supporters haven't even played this game. Also, Mother 3's match pic was literally just the game title on a red background. I know that's the boxart, but please, so terrible. Yet Mother 3 did this good. Yes, MGS3 might have disappointed greatly today, but let's give some credit to Mother 3 as well, it ends up looking pretty good.