Results[]
Sunday, December 6, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 8 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 112 |
| Match Date | Sunday, December 6, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 50.86% 51 for - 25 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 28.59% |
Round 3 ended with a rather unexpected blowout, so much so that one could easily call this the best match the entire Metal Gear Solid series had all contest. Oracle opinions were virtually 50-50 on this match, and everyone who picked MGS3 to win undershot the percentage by quite a bit. People definitely noticed Mass Effect 2's impressive run coupled with MGS looking less than stellar.
So MGS3 laying a 61-39 beating on Mass Effect 2 was a pretty big surprise for most people, and it gave the Mass Effect series a very unceremonious exit from this contest. It also clued us in on how the big inter-series showdown would go between MGS1 and MGS3. A lot of people blamed my Mass Effect 2 picture because they're babies (notice how it's always the people who never actually contribute anything to this site that are the first to whine and bitch about those who do). The picture looks fine, and shows Harbinger in all of his badassery. If you don't like it, try actually getting off your lazy asses and submitting a better image. That's the problem with society these days, everyone wants to bitch and moan but no one wants to do any work. This is how a complete idiot like Bernie Sanders got popular.
No really, the guy is legitimately a moron who is running on a platform of GIVE EVERYONE FREE STUFF without knowing basic economic principles like collateral: https://twitter.com/berniesanders/status/654741381294874624. That guy being popular is such a fucking joke, and anyone who believes in him is exactly the problem with this country. Get off my lawn and pull yourself up by your bootstraps you darn younguns! =p
The real reason MGS3 did so well is it got one of the best possible match pictures it could ever get. Only Big Boss's salute is better. Naturally, the game stomped. Don't forget that Big Boss is arguably the picture factor in these contests.
This match put a bow on a rather uneventful round 3. Lots of predictable matches with games making cute runs getting booted, but that happens in any seeded tournament and is a necessary evil. Not that there weren't good matches, but most were of the Symphony of the Night > Donkey Kong Country 2 variety.
Ctes' Analysis[]
This match makes so little sense to me, even now. I mean, it was never a certainty that Mass Effect 2 would win this match, it was probably never even the favorite, but it looked in such a good position to take it after last round and you know… everything we've seen so far in this contest. Mass Effect hasn't done that well, but hasn't looked bad either. Mass Effect 3 looks a bit pathetic not being able to hold that big lead in the last quarter of the match, but people have very mixed feelings about that game. And yes, I know it ends up second in the x-stats, but jokes aside, it didn't do well. The first and the second looked great though. Mass Effect won a match against a very well-received Mario game and did great against a very well-received Smash game. It's not bad! Mass Effect 2 looked like a king beating Starcraft in a small rally fight, a match which made Metal Gear Solid 3 look like a joke against BioShock. It's also the most popular Mass Effect game in general, it'd make sense for that to transfer to contest strength.
I guess we learned that BioShock has a lot of strength, but seriously, Metal Gear Solid 3 and you know, Metal Gear Solid as whole has looked like garbage this contest. Every single one of the games. Like, Metal Gear Solid 4 lost to Kingdom Hearts II. No shame in that, but the numbers made it look pathetic. Dark Souls is appreciated a lot, but a Metal Gear Solid game has no business losing to it. Metal Gear Solid 2 looked somewhat fine but only until Resident Evil 4 gets trashed next round. Metal Gear Solid allowed Earthbound closer than it should have, Year of SNES or not, that's not something this series should allow itself to do. Then Metal Gear Solid 3 probably looked the worst of all, relatively of course, but still. This game was debated as perhaps being the strongest. Then it allows a Japanese exclusive to break 30% on it. It shouldn't matter that said game has a prequel released outside of Japan, it's still super niche, and Smash appearance helps a lot, but Mother 3 should not have broken 30%. As I just said, Metal Gear Solid 3 followed up by allowing BioShock to almost beat it. Mass Effect 2 trashed Virtue's Last Reward into the group and took down a rallied Starcraft that had just annihilated Destiny. That's freakin' imprssive.
We can try to make this look a bit less unfair. Smash appearance does help a lot, we know. Metal Gear Solid 3 and Mother 3 have about nothing in common whatsoever, so in that sense, Mother 3 is the worst kind of opponent for Metal Gear Solid 3, it's just so darn weak that it doesn't matter. BioShock did look legit in Game of the Decade as well and after all, it was being supported quite a lot by both Starcraft and Mass Effect fans. Also, Mass Effect 2 trashed Virtue's Last Reward quite a lot, but that game should be a contender for the absolute weakest. Starcraft was legit in 2004, but it's a PC game, we know those are weak here.
Yet, this result still makes so little sense to me given everything we've seen. It's like Metal Gear Solid just finally decided it was tired of being humiliated and stepped up, it looks so darn good in this match. Mass Effect 2 had rally powers, but that never even mattered. People would see Metal Gear Solid 3 stomping and just give up. A few people in my Last Man Standing contest picked Metal Gear Solid today including winner DpOblivion and I guarantee you they weren't thinking they picked in the closer match. This was absolutely crazy. After Mass Effect having looked really great for a while, in character contests too, it just flops completely today. Would you have thought BioShock would beat Mass Effect 2 easily? I know I wouldn't, but that seems clear as the day now. Sure, it probably helps having two Metal Gear Solid games in the poll together, but it doesn't excuse this, Mass Effect 2 can't excuse this performance.
You can explain the performance though. It seems clear now that Starcraft was a lot weaker than we thought and BioShock a lot stronger. What I explained about Mother 3 being the worst possible opponent for Metal Gear Solid 3 is probably true as well, especially considering it also explains Earthbound's great performance against Metal Gear Solid a bit. But still, Mass Effect 2 just didn't meet expectations here. It's still fighting a weakened Metal Gear Solid franchise. And I guess it just wasn't the strongest game of its own series after all. It's the fan favorite, but I don't think a good argument can be made for Mass Effect 2 against its prequel. The first of them is clearly stronger on this site. This was the match by far the most people expected Mass Effect 2 to bow out in, but not in this fashion, not after everything we've seen.
Considering everything else that franchise showed, it was a bit hard to confirm at this point, but at least on the outside, Metal Gear Solid 3 redeemed the series a bit today. The long awaited. Though a great deal of this can and should be contributed to Mass Effect 2 disappointing, this was a huge win, Metal Gear Solid 3 deserves a lot of credit. It's easily my favorite game of the franchise too, so it's great to see. Metal Gear Solid was still considered the favorite going into the division finals, but its supporters definitely at least lost some confidence after how Metal Gear Solid 3 did today.