Results[]
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 8 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 95 |
| Match Date | Saturday, November 28, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 59.54% 83 for - 1 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 49.22% |
This match happening at the same time as Starcraft/Mass Effect 2 created one of the coolest situations in this entire contest, which was two Western RPG games rallying their ass off at the same time. Add that to the Starcraft rally, and you just had an overall really cool day going on. It's important to remember that the west rarely gets a rub on GameFAQs; this site is practically a 90s Japanese fan site at this point. So to see the west completely run our poll for a day... it filled the west with determination. For one day. It wouldn't last, and had this rallying begun earlier in the contest we might have seen some very different results.
The funny thing here is all three rallies diametrically opposed Metal Gear Solid 3, which was just hilarious to watch, made it look really bad in winning this match, and made the final raw x-stats look totally ridiculous. This match was really the tale of two different matches, because early on this looked like it would be standard fare for round 2 -- just a predictable win in the 60-40 range. MGS3 was over 60% early, and though it bled some percentage overnight, it was nothing major and it was easily able to build up a lead even as Starcraft was rallying. Even through the dead zone and early morning, MGS3 only really bled some percentage.
It's when Mass Effect 2's rally kicked off that things got really weird in this match. Mass Effect 2 got going at around 10 am, which is precisely the moment MGS3 vs BioShock proceeded to stay deadlocked for 14 hours. Not long after Mass Effect 2 started rallying, BioShock started rallying. It turned all of these polls into a giant rallyfest, which was cool to watch even though most of it was centered around Starcraft vs Mass Effect 2.
With MGS3 and BioShock specifically, the big western push was able to get BioShock an even vote intake with MGS3 for 14 hours. But to overcome an 1800 vote lead, it would need more than just going 50-50. There was one scare for MGS3 around ASV time when BioShock cut off 300 votes over a 2 hour span, but MGS3 was able to stabilize before ultimately surviving and winning the match. Still, even though BioShock didn't win, it was impressive to see it going 50-50 with a game that's much stronger naturally. This was probably a 55-45 match naturally, and BioShock got it down to 52-48 before the match ended. With a better rally, it could have actually won.
For MGS3, it was the latest example in a long line of embarrassing results for the Metal Gear Solid series -- two of which happened on the same day! -- and at this point all three games were just waiting to lose. Would anyone have been surprised at this point had Mass Effect 2 beaten MGS3?
Ctes' Analysis[]
This match is crazy, in some sense hilarious, but as a big fan of Metal Gear Solid 3 mostly sad and worrying. BioShock got a hell lot more than it was supposed to here. It's frighteningly close. Let me first explain the oracle predictions. A single user, nkansas, had Metal Gear Solid 3 winning by less than this, which 52.00% (then Rose had BioShock winning by 61.42% lmao), but everybody else guessed that Metal Gear Solid 3 would win by more. The average prediction probably falls close to 60% and it got 52%. It's an absolute embarrassment. The Metal Gear Solid series had been embarrassed pretty much each time they were on the field, with MGSV even losing a match it was supposed to win, but this one tops it all off.
Now, one of the most notable matches of the contests, Starcraft vs. Mass Effect 2, was going on simultaneously and that one was a minor rally war. The thing is, both rallies appeared to boost BioShock. Didn't matter which one of them had a rally going, it was BioShock that benefit from it. The other matches might've been slightly affected, but definitely not very much. Considering the size of the rallies today, it's incredible BioShock was boosted this much, but I guess it has fantastic overlap with both games. BioShock started at around 43% and then boosted crazily for a while. It ot 4-5% coming from the rallies. That's really great for spillover not coming from like Undertale or maybe Melee. Had these two games been just slightly closer, heck, had it been any other Metal Gear Solid game than Snake Eater except possible the original, BioShock would win it, though it might just very well regardless with how the Metal Gear Solid series already disappointed before rally spillover kicked in.
Ultimately, the other match settled and BioShock would not make the comeback. Had the rallies not stopped, it would've been a different story and BioShock could've written history. It also would've been hillarious to see BioShock take enough advantage of spillover to actually win a match when no games present on Undertale matches seemed to do so. That said, spillover is somewhat lame. Like, I'm against strong outsides rallies in general, but games just getting incredibly lucky by sharing a poll with a similar game that gets rallies should be something no one wants. So despite completely unexpected upsets being fun, I'm glad we avoided it today. Also, because Metal Gear Solid 3 is a top 10 game for me of course. If you remove spillover percentage, then Metal Gear Solid 3 has a safe win today, but that still doesn't excuse its performance today. People were expected disappointments from the series at this point and it still somewhat would've done worse than the average oracle expectation.
Metal Gear Solid 3 should not be considered the favorite going into the next match honestly. Mass Effect 2 managed to look really good today and Metal Gear Solid 3 definitely didn't. Considering Mass Effect 2's shown rally capabilities, that upset actually seemed likely today. Honestly, the best thing Metal Gear Solid 3 had going for on right now was that it would be sharing a poll with a probably stronger Metal Gear Solid 3 game. I think board 8 still slightly favored Metal Gear Solid 3, but it honestly shouldn't be favored today. There would be no reason really for Mass Effect 2 to be weaker than BioShock. The first on proved itself legit and the second one is the fan favorite. That's how things looked at this point, now, take a moment to realize how many probabilities from this paragraph would end up happening.