Results[]
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 1 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 5 |
| Match Date | Saturday, March 28, 2020 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Monster Hunter: World - 58.70% 60 for - 4 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Monster Hunter: World - 88.85% |
| User Votes |
Monster Hunter: World - 4833 Bravely Default - 3206 |
| Anonymous Votes |
Monster Hunter: World - 3543 Bravely Default - 3173 |
BATTLE OF THE SUBTITLES!!
Given what we know now it would be easy to say these games were both hidden dragons all along and that we should have known Monster Hunter would be a beast, but a lot of people saying that would not be telling the truth. Round 2 was always in debate right up until it happened: http://thengamer.com/guru/stats.php?match=67
When this was all happening live, Monster Hunter v Bravely Default and Sekiro v Ni No Kuni were basically mirror images of each other trends-wise, and the matches were happening at the exact same time. The obvious question to ask here is "Bravely Default or Ni No Kuni, who you got?". The beauty of it is all four games in this fourpack were making their contest debut, and all but Sekiro looked horrible in any poll they had ever been in. This is a round 1 analysis though, so I'll get into more of that in round 2.
This match was one of the many, many boring and predictable matches we had in this contest. There simply isn't much to talk about with a 58-42 beating, outside of one small point. I think it's possible Bravely Default may have overperformed by a percentage or three here, because Bravely Default 2 (not to be confused with Bravely Second and the incessant need of JRPGs to use stupid subtitles and numbering systems when naming their games) was announced during the Game Awards in December 2019. Given this is RPGFAQs, it may have had a small effect on the original game's percentage. I haven't played any of these games yet, but I have friends who swear by them.
But really the story here is how this match and its sister match had the exact same trends and percentage. It was just silly to look at live.
Ctes's Analysis[]
This match went almost exactly like most of us expected, but unlike most matches that go that way, most appeared to not have a correct read on either game’s strength, just a correct read on the ratio between them. Because even as the games both ended up in the matches where most people expected them to, they look a lot better than we thought at the other side of the contest. Bravely Default appears to be quite legit and it’s a shame it got a completely unwinnable match because it could’ve damaged brackets elsewhere in a similar fashion to Octopath. Being a Square RPG on a Nintendo console is a good thing apparently. As Monster Hunter also ended up being a lot closer to Dragon Quest than expected, we instead of learned of Bravely Default being legit as the contest went on. Hopefully it’s not the last time we see it in the field, although with its low seeding in a Game of the Decade bracket it might very well be.
This match set up Monster Hunter as the clear favorite for round 2. It was the guru favorite too, but Sekiro beating it was a fairly popular upset, but everyone had a hard time seeing Ni no Kuni get close to Bravely Default. That had more to do with the following match however.
Safer777's Analysis[]
So we have an action RPG against a turn based RPG here. But here is the thing MHW is really popular especially the last game. And these games are damn loved by the fans even though they are grindy and you have to keep slaying the same monsters over and over. Still a ton of stuff to do there. As for BD it is basically an old school FF game with just a different name. Seriously. It is loved but since it got released on a portable console you can't expect much. I have played it though along with the sequel and yeah it is amazing. So many job combinations and such.
As for the match. It went as expected even with the same percentage that people predicted. So I guess that means that MHW is weak. I mean barelly beating a portable JRPG? Only on this site.The prediction percentage was huge too, I mean the 2nd highest so far. Huge name recognition I guess? Also Bravely Default 2 is getting released this year so that means that it has to be doing well in sales and in reception. And even though it says 2 it is actually the 3rd game. Strange I know.
Tsunami's Analysis[]
Now this was an interesting match to talk about, if not to watch. It was in the write-up of the Suikoden II-Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate match that "The Flowchart" was introduced:
Nintendo > Squaresoft > Japanese RPG > RPG > Japanese > old > new > contest experience > top option > everything else. However, while this did correctly lead to the answer that Suikoden would win because it was older, had contest experience, and was the top option, it was not, as stated in that write-up, a JRPG vs. a mere RPG. Monster Hunter is in fact a Capcom franchise, so that was JRPG vs. JRPG.
Here, however, it was a bit murkier. Bravely Default was the older game, 2014 vs. 2017, but that probably matters less in Game of the Decade because the gaps are smaller. Monster Hunter: World had the huge seeding advantage, and was released on consoles while Bravely Default was a handheld game. But Bravely Default was Squaresoft--Square Enix, technically, but while it was well post-merger it was a throwback to their older games, in the same vein as their earlier spin-off "Final Fantasy: The 4 Heroes of Light". Hell, look at those abbreviations again: Bravely Default even had a subtitle with the initials "FF"!--while Monster Hunter: World was, as stated before, Capcom, which stunk up the joint like crazy in 2018. Yeah, yeah, "Characters =/= Games", but still, about the only Capcom character to do anything impressive was B8 mascot Phoenix Wright winning one of the three matches that was outright flipped by the registered user bonus, and one of the other two resulted in a Mega Man loss so there you go, Capcom sucks. Well okay Chun-Li also seemed to impress in 2018 but nearly every female character in the bracket seemed to be a step up from before. And with unregistered voters, it was indeed pretty close; 3543-3173. But with the registered voters, MH:W was above 60%, so even without the registered voter bonus, this wouldn't have been close.
Monster Hunter: World had an 87.66% prediction percentage overall, so this was just a clear case of me overthinking things. Then again, we'd seen enough 15-2 "upsets" that the seedings alone didn't seem like an indicator that MH:W had this on lockdown.