Results[]
Monday, April 20, 2020
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 1 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 98 |
| Match Date | Monday, April 20, 2020 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Dragon Quest XI - 57.79% 46 for - 3 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Dragon Quest XI - 24.69% |
| User Votes |
Monster Hunter: World - 4340 Dragon Quest XI - 5129 |
| Anonymous Votes |
Monster Hunter: World - 4387 Dragon Quest XI - 4641 |
This match was the culmination of the entire debate over whether or not the winner of Monster Hunter's fourpack could beat Dragon Quest and make the finals of Division 1. I know the people reading this in a few years will think it's insane any of us ever thought Dragon Quest 11 could lose in this spot, but there are a few things to remember for those of us who were here live.
First off, before this contest Dragon Quest had only ever been in three contests. In the series contest, Dragon Warrior got flattened in round one. In 2009, Dragon Warrior 3 got flattened in round one. In 2015, Dragon Quest 8 was up against Persona 3 in an 8/9 match, and 85% of the board thought Persona 3 would win that match. Dragon Quest 8 won, and then in round 2 Chrono Trigger completely flattened it. So we hadn't ever seen Dragon Quest show any contest strength. It was perfectly reasonable to think Monster Hunter: World or Sekiro could beat Dragon Quest 11 here. Not only was Monster Hunter a part of the big Capcom resurgence, but a lot of people thought Sekiro would ride the Souls train to big contest heights.
When the match began, it was clear Dragon Quest 11 was a very legitimate game in these contests. It had almost 60% of the vote early, and though it spent the rest of the match bleeding percentage, Dragon Quest 11 was never in any danger of losing. This match was the quintessential example of a wrestling match where both guys come out looking like roses. Dragon Quest 11 easily won the match, but Monster Hunter: World looked very, very good in losing this match. Whether you supported Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, or Sekiro, you could watch this match and feel good about your decision. Obviously Dragon Quest would get flattened by Zelda next round, but it was nice to see one of gaming's most important series finally make a contest run.
The only small point of debate at this point is whether or not the Monster Hunter fourpack was weak, which is impossible to tell by a close loss, but we would get our answer next round.
Ctes's Analysis[]
For a game that was a lock to reach the division finals in the eyes of many of us, Dragon Quest XI had a small scare today. The match was not actually all that close, but Monster Hunter made a solid rally attempt and cut off a great deal of percentage from Dragon Quest. At the same time, it made all of itself, Sekiro, Bravely Default and Ni no Kuni look better than expected, which is hilarious when you consider the early debates of what was good and bad in those matches. Dragon Quest XI would end up doing a lot better on Breath of the Wild than Final Fantasy XV did, making them all look even better, as they would all finish ahead of everything in the top half of the division except of course Breath of the Wild itself.
The match was as mentioned never close. DQXI looked safe right away and quickly had a lead of a few 100 votes, which basically means match over these days, but after a short while, the rallies of Monster Hunter: World significantly halted the increase of DQXI’s lead and made a good many cuts along the way before DQXI could start increasing easily again in the latter parts of the match.
While a simple match that was easy to predict, it’s also a good time to appreciate the growth in two franchises that are currently at an all-time peak after being around for many years. Dragon Quest has been around a good deal longer than Monster Hunter, but the sixteen years Monster Hunter has is a lot too! Dragon Quest VIII winning a match in 2015 is the only time any of them ever had a victory before. Now they came into a contest seeded #2 and #3 and living up to those seeds!
Safer777's Analysis[]
So while we had a massacre on the previous match, we had a close match here. These are the matches that are nice to see. However almost everyone was with DQ 11 here to win, even the whole Crew went with it. The reason is that MHW had 2 close victories but against weak opponents and DQ had 2 big wins but against weak opponents too. But everyone agrees that MHW faced somewhat weaker opponents that DQ 11 faced so we all thought it would be close and it was somewhat. For me any match that is under 53-47 is close and that match was barely like that. So yeah DQ 11 was never in fear of losing.
So for the match. DQ 11 started at the 5 minute mark with 59 actually and it fell to even 52.7 at once but yeah no problems. It was the favorite of the board and the Gurus to reach the division finals but it seems casuals picked something else since the prediction percentage was damn low. So yeah once again DQ 11 reaching the division finals. I mean it is amazing because we have seen a DQ game on 2006 which lost in Round 1, once again in 2009 which lost in Round 1 too, again in 2010 which you guessed it! it lost in Round 1 again and in 2015 which BARELY won the first round match and it lost in Round 2 easily. So yeah huge thing that a DQ game managed to reach a division finals! And everyone agrees that DQ11 is the best DQ of them all. The series keep evolving. Unlike another RPG series that is from the same company and keep getting worse and worse.
Tsunami's Analysis[]
It didn't look like it'd be getting any more palatable for Breath of the Wild's detractors in Round 4, either. This very site, despite being generally quite knowledgeable about video games, frequently mistakes Monster Hunter for a WRPG, which should tell you just how obscure it is since it's actually created by one of the "Big Five" (you know, the five companies with a Noble Niner to their credit), namely Capcom. Dragon Quest was always well behind Final Fantasy in popularity here in the United States, but it's still a well-known and well-respected franchise. Only getting 53.27% on Monster Hunter: World is, quite frankly, absolutely pitiful. It's not like vote totals had dropped, either, though it'd be easy to be apathetic about this day. Seems strange to think that Nintendo's more dominant than they've ever been, but at least on this site, that seems to be the case. The rest of the Japanese contingent, or at least its old guard, are just struggling to stay relevant.
...wait, what?!
68 Dragon Quest XI 5580 64.99%
98 Dragon Quest XI 2120 24.69%
This was the stealth "ha-ha casuals" moment. I almost didn't even bother checking prediction percentage because DQXI's path had seemed so set in stone. Over 40% of brackets had MH:W/Sekiro/BD:FF/Ni No Kuni beating DQXI? And MH:W was above 50% in prediction percentage in Round 2, so that's clearly largely on it. I'd honestly have been less surprised by that low prediction percentage if its R2 prediction percentage had been lower, because Walking Dead seemed like a casualbait pick, but that's as clear as day: more people picked DQXI to lose in R3 than to lose in R1 and R2 combined. Gurus, meanwhile, had an 81.69% prediction percentage on this match. It's good to know we can still embarrass the casuals once in a while, and it helps make this result make more sense; Monster Hunter: World was most likely the favorite. DQXI's R3 prediction percentage was just 38% of its R2 percentage, so flip that around to 62%, multiply by MH:W's R2 prediction percentage, and you get a rough estimate of 33.16%. There's no better way unless Allen were to actually release the pick data for all matches rather than just the percentage correct, so that's all I can do. Project.