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Cb8-37

Results Edit

Poll3766
Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010


Poll 3766
Division Varia Division
Match # 37
Match Date Wednesday, February 3rd, 2010
Vote difference 2,695
Oracle
Expectations
Jecht - 52.65%
73 for - 37 against
GameFAQs
Prediction
Jecht - 45.40%

Ulti's AnalysisEdit

This was one of the most debated matches of round 1 pre-contest, and it was given a little extra oomph with Tidus losing to Sub-Zero in the match preceding it. It was possible we'd have a 24 hour period with father and son losing back to back.

The reason this was so debated is because one, the match was very important -- in all likelihood it was a 3 point match because the winner was a near-lock to defeat Ratchet. Two, Jecht was a true untested wild card with strength presumably in Phoenix's range. Untested characters are very fun in today's era of stats and trend knowledge, because it's a good shot in the arm. The only debate here was whether or not you felt Jecht had the strength to beat Phoenix. That's it. Or maybe a better way to say it would be which among these two characters was weaker, because presumably neither of these two would light the world on fire.

Phoenix is by far Board 8's favorite character, so every year he'll get nominated a lot and get good seeds. Whether he does anything with them or not is a different story, and you can make a case he's still a cult character. We all love him, but look at his contest history. This guy broke GFNW in 2006, needed massive rallying to hold off Bomberman in 2007, got extremely lucky with his first fourpack in 2008, and his game got totally worked over in 2009. If you set Jecht equal to Tidus, you get statistical values well above these performances (and frankly, Jecht is more popular than Tidus; that is a 1v1 match we need to see one day, and it could happen given Bacon's love of SFF). Even Sin's warped villain's contest value is better than most of this stuff.

People knew all this. The main argument in Phoenix's favor was seeding (and thus, bracket votes) and it being a night match. Phoenix has pure joke trends and gets a lot of rallying, so the thought was he could hold off Jecht for 12 hours if he built a good lead early. When the poll began, it was clear Phoenix was done. He wasn't able to stay above even 52% after 5 minutes had passed, which is a death sentence against Square at night. Phoenix held on for a few more updates before completely collapsing, and Jecht pulled in around 55% of the vote overnight to seal the deal. It wasn't all that unexpected a result, but it was pretty disappointing to see Phoenix drop the ball so much in a winnable match. His biggest lead was 87 in a winnable match; he's done much better in matches where he had no chance at all. For Jecht, he proved he was legit and essentially earned a bye into the third round.

Fun Fact: We lost the last perfect during Phoenix vs Jecht, which was none other than Dr_Football Factor'D himself.

Match Trends Edit

Graph3766

External Links Edit

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2010 Contest Matches

Round One
Link > Thrall
Alucard > Magus
Red > Ocelot
X > Price
Luigi > Meta Knight
Amaterasu > Shadow
Cube > Sandal
The Boss > Drake
Sonic > Lightning
Knuckles > Cecil
Ganondorf > Mewtwo
Ken > Wesker
Kirby > Rikku
GLaDOS > Fawful
Vivi > DK
Altair > Liquid
Mario > Falco
Big Boss > Edgeworth
Zidane > Claptrap
Ike > Prinny
Mega Man > Cid H
Zack > Yuna
Ryu H > Crash
Master Chief > Spy
Sora > Midna
Laharl > Neku
Kefka > Arthas
Bowser > Frog
L-Block > HK-47
Isaac > Layton
Charizard > Duke

Kratos > Tails
Samus > PoP
Jill > Niko
Roxas > Heavy
Sub-Zero > Tidus
Jecht > Phoenix Wright
Ratchet > Eddie
Zelda > Travis
Ezio > Simon
Cloud > Ridley
Chris > MacMillan
Riku > Ramza
Falcon > Wander
Leon > Vault Boy
Sackboy > Kratos A
Ryu > Balthier
Dante > Axel
Snake > Proto Man
Fox > Lloyd
Pikachu > Banjo
Shepard > Ellis
Auron > Aeris
Zero > Marcus
Terra > Revan
Squall > Akuma
Sephiroth > Marth
Vincent > Guybrush
Yoshi > Jak
Missingno > Crono
Big Daddy > Soap
Ness > Geno
Tifa > Yuri
Gordon > Peach

Round Two
Link > Alucard
X > Red
Luigi > Amaterasu
Cube > The Boss
Sonic > Knuckles
Ganondorf > Ken
Kirby > GLaDOS
Vivi > Altair
Mario > Big Boss
Ike > Zidane
Mega Man > Zack
Ryu H > Master Chief
Sora > Laharl
Bowser > Kefka
L-Block > Isaac
Charizard > Kratos
Samus > Jill
Sub-Zero > Roxas
Jecht > Ratchet
Zelda > Ezio
Cloud > Chris
Falcon > Riku
Leon > Sackboy
Ryu > Dante
Snake > Fox
Pikachu > Shepard
Auron > Zero
Squall > Terra
Sephiroth > Vincent
Missingno > Yoshi
Big Daddy > Ness
Tifa > Gordon

R3 and following
Link > X
Luigi > Cube
Sonic > Ganondorf
Kirby > Vivi
Mario > Ike
Mega Man > Ryu H
Bowser > Sora
Charizard > L-Block
Samus > Sub-Zero
Zelda > Jecht
Cloud > Falcon
Ryu > Leon
Snake > Pikachu
Squall > Auron
Sephiroth > Missingno
Tifa > Big Daddy
Link > Luigi
Sonic > Kirby
Mario > Mega Man
Charizard > Bowser
Samus > Zelda
Cloud > Ryu
Snake > Squall
Sephiroth > Tifa
Link > Sonic
Mario > Charizard
Cloud > Samus
Snake > Sephiroth
Link > Mario
Cloud > Snake
Link > Cloud

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