Results[]
Round One
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 6 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 45 |
| Match Date | Monday, November 16, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Metroid - 66.34% 98 for - 0 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Super Metroid - 76.28% |
There were a lot of blowouts in round 1, but not many were more important than this one. Given Metroid's contest history, a lot of people were very down on the series as a whole, and were treating it almost as badly as the Big 10 got treated in the years after Chris Leak's Florida Gators beat the hell out of Ohio State in the 2007 BCS title game. Or in contest terms, it was on par with the decline of Chrono Trigger characters. People did not have faith in the Metroid series.
To shake a stigma like that, one has to win, at least do damn well in losing. Metroid's reputation is rather well-earned. It'll do reasonably well in a contest until running into Mario or Zelda, then get SFFd into the absolute ground. Some famous examples:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1633-division-8-round-2-super-mario-bros-3-vs-metroid
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2122-tournament-quarterfinal-mario-vs-samus-aran
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2562-battle-royale-day-1
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3304-contest-semifinal-link-mario-samus-crono
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3482-division-3-round-2-s-metroid-s-mario-kart-zelda-lttp-dk
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3496-division-3-final-zelda-lttp-s-metroid-ff3-zelda-la
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3467-division-6-round-1-gtavc-k-hearts-metroid-prime-paper-mario (all it took was a game named "Mario" in the poll, any game, to cause Metroid Prime to get third place!)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4567-final-rounds-quarterfinal-pokemon-trainer-red-vs-blue-samus
It's gotten so bad that even Pokemon can cause Samus or her games to lose these days. But if there was one contest where Metroid could cause some damage, it was a contest called "Best Game Ever" where the voters were clearly taking the contest name into account and favoring the 1990s. Super Metroid pops up on any objective list talking of the best games ever made, so this was really the time to shine.
And boy did it ever. I know Call of Duty is a hated-beyond-belief series on GameFAQs, but it has done some stuff in polls here. It finished second place in our Game of the Year voting in 2007, Modern Warfare 2 actually won Game of the Year in 2009, and got to round 3 in the 2009 Best Game Ever contest in spite of facing multiple Nintendo games. It might have gotten a round farther with a better draw, too. Then in Game of the Decade, it beat Prince of Persia in round 1, then got 55% on Perfect Dark in round 2 (which seems relevant given how MGS5 did in this very 2015 contest: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6093-best-game-ever-day-11-metal-gear-solid-v-vs-perfect-dark), then got 31% on Melee. Call of Duty 4, much as we hate it, is not some joke here.
So to go out and just get absolutely fucking murdered by Super Metroid says a whole lot about Super Metroid's contest strength. Remember, we had so little faith in it that we thought it would win this match before getting SFFd into the ground by Galaxy. Then this happened while Galaxy was sitting there looking rather pedestrian against Dragon Age, and reality set in. Mario Galaxy, in one of the biggest twists of fate ever, would have to rely on Reverse SFF to beat Super Metroid. Because there was no way one could look at these round 1 results and think it was indirectly the stronger game.
Ctes's Analysis[]
I feel like this is one of the most remarkable results of the whole round. Obviously, the winner was never in doubt, but for Super Metroid to score nearly 80% here was insane. It's likely a mix of two things. Call of Duty has got to have fallen a lot. This is the same game that beat Perfect Dark before breaking 30% on Super Smash Bros. Melee. Then you simply don't go ahead and only barely break 20% on Super Metroid. Melee is a top 10 game on this site even before rallies. Even if you expect a Call of Duty drop, this is insane. It's completely crazy to think a Call of Duty game won GotY in 2009 too, it seems like an impossible task today. In the Game of the 00's poll following it even beat lots of near elites here finishing only behind FFX and RE4. That said, the poll was basically a load of Nintendo games leeching each other causing the few non-Nintendo titles to do really well. But Call of Duty still outperformed San Andreas and got close to RE4, and while San Andreas often disappoints here it sure wouldn't get this low on Super Metroid. It's only been five years since this game got 30% on Melee too, how far can you drop so fast?
Somewhat far is the answer, but not this far. The other thing is that Super Metroid had new found strength here. Or perhaps it was just its first change to show it, because it got destroyed by A Link to the Past in both contests. In 2004, it did put up solid numbers on Phantasy Star IV, but then almost got tripled by A Link to the Past and despite there being SFF, that wasn't exactly a good showing. Then in 2009 it went neck to neck with Super Mario Kart the first two rounds and had just a few more votes both times. In round three it bit the dust. It looked leagues behind A Link to the Past SFF taken into consideration. It didn't look leagues behind A Link to the Past today though. I think perhaps A Link to the Past SFF'd Super Metroid more than we thought back then, but I also think Super Metroid has new found strength, because this is insane. It truly is Year of SNES, but of all the impressive SNES games, I think only Chrono Trigger's boost rivals the boost of Super Metroid between now and 2009.
Pre-contest, Super Mario Galaxy was the favorite to reach round 3 here and there was good reason to pick it to. After this match, Super Metroid started becoming the favorite. Call of Duty drop happened yeah, but it's not enough to explain this result. At this point, it seemed very unlikely to see a Wii game beat SNES a game, especially a SNES game of this strength. Had it been DKC2, sure, but Super Metroid redeemed itself this contest. Practically, the only thing Super Metroid had to worry about would be the Nintendo hierarchy doing its work again in another Mario>Samus match.