Results[]
Sunday, November 29, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 1 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 98 |
| Match Date | Sunday, November 29, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Smash Bros. Melee - 58.79% 85 for - 0 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Smash Bros. Melee - 39.55% |
Hey remember last round when Chrono Trigger beat the hell out of its competition while its pending opponent looked like trash?
It's almost like we had a rehash of that, and the percentages were actually a bit eerie. In round 2, Final Fantasy X only got 55.48% on Mega Man X. Not a match that was ever going to be in doubt, but that's about as bad as one can look in a match that was a guaranteed win. Then this match happened, and Melee finished with only 55.3% on Kingdom Hearts 2. The obvious side note here is KH2 would beat MMX 1v1, so hey more proof of Melee > FFX. Like Hulk Hogan in the Yappapi Indian Strap Match, I will never stop.
This match wasn't so bad for Melee at the beginning, as it was over 60% early. But this was also the match that showed us just how hilarious Melee's trends are. It's practically joke trends. That game loves to dominate early, then fall of a cliff before recovering during the day vote. Well in this match, it had over 60% early, then fell off a cliff until ending the match at 55-45. Kingdom Hearts 2 got several cuts during the match, went out like a champ, and completely spelled the death of Super Smash Bros. Melee against Chrono Trigger. I won't even front and pretend that match wouldn't have been a thorough annihilation were it a fair match. It would have been a miracle had Melee broken even 40%. All the evidence was there after KH2 completely embarrassed Melee here in round 3. We know what eventually would happen, but I do want to make sure to give Chrono Trigger its props before completely burying it. If you think FFX's choke job list is awful, wait until you see that one. No game has been involved in more controversy, close matches, or general insanity on this web site than Chrono Trigger.
By the way I've gotten some questions about why I call non-rally matches "fair" when I'm pro-rally. It's the Magic player in me. In that game, people differentiate between fair decks and unfair decks by whether or not there's interaction between the two players. If one player can run a deck where the opponent does not even remotely matter and winning depends entirely on whether or not one's deck can go off, it's considered an unfair deck because there's no interaction. The short of it is combo decks are called unfair, because people are whiny-ass crybabies.
http://gatherer.wizards.com/Handlers/Image.ashx?multiverseid=383125&type=card
Ctes' Analysis[]
This match went pretty much as you'd normally expect. Kingdom Heart II was never going to stand a chance at winning today, but it was expected to look pretty good going out, and it did! A bunch of people in the oracle guessed Melee to finish significantly better than this, but that was after seeing it rallying against GSC in a match is was already winning last round. GSC is expected to be stronger than Kingdom Hearts II, so naturally, if Melee broke 60% on that it should do better here. It's pretty solid reasoning, but such things are terribly hard to predict. Today, there would be no rallies for Melee, which is really weird. You'd start wondering if they simply feared GSC rallies and didn't fear any for Kingdom Hearts II, if they just forget or what happening. We're still wondering about that btw. Melee's rally against GSC is one of the weirdest things post-contest, because there is no clear explanation of what happening there.
It's nice to see Kingdom Hearts II not getting buried in rallies and look good going out. Makes the series look good in the end despite the first game losing its round 1 match. As for the division finals, Melee had been the board favorite before the contest started. There was reason to believe Melee could pull it of too even with Chrono Trigger destroying Up Your Arsenal and Dragon Quest VIII. However, with how Chrono Trigger annihilated Final Fantasy X as this match went on, I don't think a single person believed Melee stood a chance there. Let's look at it this way; who would you pick in a match between Final Fantasy X and Kingdom Hearts II? I don't think anybody would side with the latter in that one. Did Chrono Trigger SFF Final Fantasy X? It'd make sense there's be some SFF in that match, but consider how little SFF we've had this contest and how different those two games actually are. Today, Melee looked to be something Chrono Trigger would run over before it got to play with the real big names.