Results[]
Round Two
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 1 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 67 |
| Match Date | Saturday, November 21, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Smash Bros. Melee - 58.71% 91 for - 2 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Smash Bros. Melee - 58.12% |
Despite this match being an easy win for Melee, there was a lot of intrigue here. First and foremost, let's check the LOL, X-Stats. Based on 2009, Melee was expected to get 57% in this match. Based on Game of the Decade, Melee was expected to get 55%.
For about 9 hours or so, this was a perfectly normal match, and Melee was on track for a very comfortable, and very predictable 55-45 win. Melee did its usual thing of dominating the board vote before bleeding percentage, but given the match was well in line to fall in line with the x-stats, there wasn't much concern.
Don't tell that to Melee fans, though! They noticed the bleed in percentage, and began a pretty funny rally. I say it was funny because this match was never going to be in any doubt, but the Melee folks rallied anyway and had some really good results. At 9 am, Melee had 56% of the vote. This was a very respectable number given GSC's strength, and nothing to be ashamed of.
After that when the rally kicked in, Melee just stomped this poll, to the tune of most updates being over 60%, and it even had a few over 70%. Melee would end the match at 60%, which is a very significant climb in percentage over the course of 15 hours. It would be an indicator of what Melee had to offer in future matches of this contest, though this rally was nothing compared to the raw power Melee would show later. This was basically a successful trial run.
Ctes' Analysis[]
This was one of the easiest four-packs to predict in the entire bracket. GSC are strong games. They're a solid step behind RBY which came clear in GotD, but they're strong regardless. Definitely a near-elite game, meaning top 20 or something. So in that sense, it really got wasted in the bracket. Not only did it not get as far as it should based on strength, but it didn't get a single debatable match either. I guess you can't make a perfect bracket, so something has to have it this way each time. That's just how it is.
Now the only thing interesting about this match is that, Melee got rallied quite a lot. It was winning without any trouble from the start, but don't let the final result fool you. Melee doesn't naturally beat GSC by this much. It started out by this much due to the insane board vote it has, but then it got down and stayed at 55-56%. That's how much Melee would naturally beat GSC by. Then the rally happened and boosted it another 5%. It's really weird. First of all, why would anybody care enough to rally for a game that was already easily winning? What's the point, why bother? Secondly, how was it so successful? I mean, this is far from the strongest rally ever, but it's noticeable and most rallies aren't really. It seems stupid in the long run, as people can get tired from hearing about the contest, but that didn't happen with Melee, so maybe it isn't stupid. Still, waste of effort today. I'm not quite sure if they feared a Pokemon rally, but that was never going to happen.
We took this pretty lightly. I don't think people really realized how dangerous a rallied Melee could be at this point. This is due to the fact that it's one of the strongest games on the site in itself. But it also wasn't at its full force yet. Scoring 60% on GSC is impressive, but Chrono Trigger was dominating so heavily in its match that those 60% meant nothing. At least we didn't think so at this point.