Results[]
Friday, November 27, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 7 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 91 |
| Match Date | Friday, November 27, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Metal Gear Solid 2 - 53.61% 69 for - 21 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Metal Gear Solid 2 - 27.52% |
This was one of the weirdest matches of the entire contest, specifically because it wasn't a weird match at all.
Before getting into the actual match itself, look at how these two games performed in round 1. Witcher 3 got nearly 75% in its match, while MGS2 struggled with Resident Evil. By that alone, I'm very surprised Witcher 3 wasn't able to win this poll through its own natural strength. The evidence that it could have done so was certainly there, so to see MGS2 win this comfortably was certainly there. The poll was 60-40 early, then MGS2 bled percentage all match until it won 54-46.
Under normal circumstances, that would be a respectable and close match, if not a bit surprising given the round 1 performances. But by this match having normal circumstances, it wasn't really normal at all. Witcher 3's own developers have rallied on the internet to win something like 200+ Game of the Year awards. Some of thosse it won normally, but a lot were direct rallies where the developers asked the fans to vote in online polls all over the place. The fans responded in kind, and now Witcher 3 is on track to become this weird cult classic video game.
I'm sure even the most staunch anti-rally guy could at least see why this is a good thing. If you pour your heart into making a video game, you want to get recognition for it. Witcher 3 clearly had a passionate development team and passionate fans, and they took advantage of that to get some buzz on the internet. Good for them!
So why in the absolute holy hell did they not ask their fans to vote in this poll? MGS2 only won this poll by 3323 votes, and in the middle of the afternoon this match was still very much in doubt. The Metal Gear Solid series looked like trash all contest long and was just begging to have people rally against it. It isn't like people didn't try, either. There were Witcher 3 fans all over the usual sites, the fan sites, the developer's twitter, and everything else you could think of during this match to try getting a rally going. And while people are jaded about GameFAQs, this is still one of the biggest video game sites out there; a developer rally to get Witcher 3 a run in this contest would have made perfect sense. Yet while the fans were pounding the social media alarm, the developers did not care. It frankly blew my mind, because Witcher 3's rally potential pre-contest was obvious.
Yet none of it would ever happen, and MGS2 would back its way into a 54-46 win. A match like this really puts into perspective just how hard it is to get a successful rally going, and really makes one appreciate the ones that do work. Those fans were everywhere during this match, for a game that has a real buzz online, and it didn't matter. It goes to show you that successful rallies are largely about luck, because Witcher 3 might have won this contest had it bothered showing up for a match that it was just begging to win.
Oh and that's no disrespect meant for MGS2 and no complaining by me over it winning this, by the way. It's in my top 10. I was just very, very pleasantly surprised. Even now in looking back at this match, I cannot believe that it actually won this match.
"Obviously, the Patriots blackmailed CD Projekt Red into not rallying for The Witcher 3." -swirldude
Ctes' Analysis[]
This match was not interesting to look at, other than laughing more at Metal Gear Solid I guess, but it comes down as one of the most hypothetically interesting of the contest, but let's look at what actually happened first. Some people were discussing the upset here that would be The Witcher 3 winning. It would've been a cool upset too! Sons of Liberty is not exactly the most well-received Metal Gear Solid and The Witcher 3 has been incredible well-received. It took Game of the Year on GameFAQs as well. I haven't played it personally, but it's on the to do list! I do love Metal Gear Solid 2 as well, but I know not everyone appreciates it. Raiden is apparently considered a bad character too. When you look at things like this, The Witcher 3 should win this match, it really should.
But it didn't, and it was never going to either. This is GameFAQs! We are very nostalgia and/or haven't played more recent games. It's also that Metal Gear Solid 2 is part of a great well-established series, and even though said series disappointed this contest, it's still a big one. The Witcher 3 is as well, but the first two were not nearly as big as the third one has become. The Witcher 3 doesn't get its popularity from its series' name. I'm not saying Metal Gear Solid 2 completely does, but it certainly helps it a lot. As I just mentioned, The Witcher 3 took Game of the Year here, that really says everything! Without even looking anything up, I can assure you that Metal Gear Solid 2 would lose to at least three other 2001 games, which are Melee, Final Fantasy X and GSC. Now, 2001 was a really good year, but it still says a lot! 2015 was too and recent games in general are great as well. The prediction percentage reveals The Witcher 3 as the overall favorite and we would've guessed so either way, but Metal Gear Solid 2 was the clear board 8 favorite. We know our nostalgic site.
Now, what makes this match so hypothetically interesting? GameFAQs dodged a major bullet on this one. Undertale would end up winning this contest by gained momentum over the course of the rounds and within every single round in itself as well. In this match, we dodged another major bracket destruction by rallies in The Witcher 3. The fanbase and even official sites are ridiculously easy to rally for this game. They have done it before and it would take them nothing to overtake this contest completely either. In round 1, there was no reason to contact them whatsoever because The Witcher 3 was facing The Binding of Isaac: Rebirth of all things, which it obviously destroyed. Well, they were contacted this round, but nothing happened, which is weird. I mean, usually, most rally attempt fails and that's just how it is, but this one should've been bulletproof.
The answer is in the timing. The day of this match was 11/27. That's Black Friday for you! Not even gamers are home that day. More importantly, the sites were contacted on Thanksgiving, where they weren't working / paying attention. They actually responded to someone explaining that they would've participated in this, but didn't since they weren't contacted sooner than Thanksgiving when the match was on Black Friday. We lucked out due to the date of the match. The rally potential in the Witcher 3 was absolutely the biggest bullet we had to dodge and we did. If they had rallied, The Witcher 3 would've dominated the contest entirely. Undertale won, but at least it kept the board active doing its matches with how its trends were. The Witcher 3 would've destroyed competition in boring matches similar to how Draven did it and this time, there would be no Hero of Time to save everybody with only DDOS attacks to fear. People would probably still say “save us Ocarina of Time” or “save us Chrono Trigger”, even though it would quickly become “save us RBY”, “save us Melee” or even “save us Undertale”. It would likely not happen though. They'd be too many, and Undertale wouldn't be able to jump the same anti-gamefaqs bandwagon if The Witcher 3 was the treat.
But none of it ever happened, because of thanksgiving. Most people wont even remember The Witcher 3 in this contest. At most, it was just another entrant to embarrass Metal Gear Solid, but there were so many of those that it went unnoticed here, but The Witcher 3 was the game to fear the most when it came to outside forces, but Minecraft, Heartstone, Destiny and even Undertale were considered more, another reason why people doesn't remember. Who knows what'll happen if the Witcher 3 comes back to the field. Maybe if its past its prime, it wont matter, but if the contest comes somewhat soon, well, you never know!