Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | North |
|---|---|
| Match # | 4 |
| Match Date | Thursday, October 21, 2010 |
| Vote difference | 37 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Team Fortress 2 - 56.37% 126 for - 4 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Team Fortress 2 - 61.39% |
| Battle Contest Predictions |
Banked: 874 |
On the second day of this contest, one day after a real big one with Deus Ex upsetting Rock Band 2, we had a match that just blew everything out of the water. Team Fortress 2's 37 vote win over Fable was an all-timer marred only by how meaningless the match was and how early the match happened in the contest. As I write this, Majora's Mask is finishing up an outstanding comeback/upset over Final Fantasy X. TF2 holding on here was nice, but in the end it was a one point match. This would have meant much more if each game came in with a head of steam or something. Just to put this in perspective, Majora upsetting FFX was worth 32 points.
That said, what a freaking outstanding match this was. Team Fortress 2 had a tiny lead early, Fable erased it and we were off to a complete war of attrition. The old record for closest wire-to-wire match was Frog vs Liquid Snake way back in 2004, where neither character led by more than 460. That record would get shattered here. It didn't take long for the match to become a deadlock, but this is actually where Fable went wrong.
GameFAQs doesn't like Fable much, which was its first mistake. Molyneux sucks at making games, but Fable got by on this site due to being an RPG. It's all over the match picture, too. But the more pressing issue here is Team Fortress 2's fanbase and bracket supporters were never going to let it lose a close match. Fable needed to blow it out to win this, and it couldn't do it. So what ended up happening for a solid 12 hours was one game building a minor lead and the other coming back super quickly. It was like the 5 minute updates version of Chrono Trigger vs Link to the Past from 2004. Alec was nice enough to track most of it:
12:05 TF2 leads by 40 (TF2 +40)
12:10 TF2 leads by 14 (Fable +26)
LEAD CHANGE #1
12:15 Fable leads by 16 (Fable +30)
LEAD CHANGE #2
12:20 TF2 leads by 28 (TF2 +44)
12:25 TF2 leads by 8 (Fable +20)
12:30 TF2 leads by 31 (TF2 +23)
12:35 TF2 leads by 35 (TF2 +4)
LEAD CHANGE #3
12:40 Fable leads by 11 (Fable +46)
12:45 Fable leads by 23 (Fable +12)
12:50 Fable leads by 26 (Fable +3)
LEAD CHANGE #4
12:55 TF2 leads by 3 (TF2 +29)
LEAD CHANGE #5
1:00 Fable leads by 32 (Fable +35)
1:05 Fable leads by 29 (TF2 +3)
1:10 Fable leads by 21 (TF2 +8)
1:15 Fable leads by 10 (TF2 +11)
LEAD CHANGE #6
1:20 TF2 leads by 21 (TF2 +31)
1:25 TF2 leads by 36 (TF2 +15)
1:30 TF2 leads by 66 (TF2 +30)
1:35 TF2 leads by 40 (Fable +26)
1:40 TF2 leads by 91 (TF2 +51)
1:45 TF2 leads by 115 (TF2 +24)
1:50 TF2 leads by 66 (Fable +49)
1:55 TF2 leads by 15 (Fable +51)
LEAD CHANGE #7
1:00 Fable leads by 16 (Fable +31)
2:05 Fable leads by 27 (Fable +11)
2:10 Fable leads by 36 (Fable + 9)
2:15 Fable leads by 20 (TF2 +16)
2:20 Fable leads by 29 (Fable +9)
2:25 Fable leads by 31 (Fable +2)
2:30 Fable leads by 27 (TF2 +4)
LEAD CHANGE #8
2:35 TF2 leads by 8 (TF2 +35)
LEAD CHANGE #9
2:40 Fable leads by 13 (Fable +21)
2:45 Fable leads by 4 (TF2 +9)
2:50 Fable leads by 12 (Fable +8)
2:55 Fable leads by 10 (TF2 +2)
LEAD CHANGE #10
3:00 TF2 leads by 22 (TF2 +32)
3:05 TF2 leads by 40 (TF2 +18)
3:10 TF2 leads by 28 (Fable +12)
3:15 TF2 leads by 38 (TF2 +10)
3:20 TF2 leads by 61 (TF2 +23)
3:25 TF2 leads by 43 (Fable +18)
3:30 TF2 leads by 39 (Fable +4)
3:35 TF2 leads by 20 (Fable +19)
3:40 TF2 leads by 38 (TF2 +18)
3:45 TF2 leads by 32 (Fable +6)
3:50 TF2 leads by 35 votes (TF2 +3)
3:55 TF2 leads by 38 votes (TF2 +3)
4:00 TF2 leads by 35 votes (Fable +3)
4:05 TF2 leads by 39 votes (TF2 +4)
4:10 TF2 leads by 50 votes (TF2 +11)
4:15 TF2 leads by 57 votes (TF2 +7)
4:20 TF2 leads by 55 votes (Fable +2)
4:25 TF2 leads by 31 votes (Fable +24)
4:30 TF2 leads by 59 votes (TF2 +28)
4:35 TF2 leads by 17 votes (Fable +42)
4:40 TF2 leads by 23 votes (TF2 +6)
4:45 TF2 leads by 29 votes (TF2 +6)
4:50 TF2 leads by 15 votes (Fable +14)
4:55 TF2 leads by 21 votes (TF2 +6)
5:00 TF2 leads by 38 votes (TF2 +17)
5:05 TF2 leads by 37 votes (Fable +1)
5:10 TF2 leads by 36 votes (Fable +1)
LEAD CHANGE #11
5:15 Fable leads by 17 votes (Fable +53)
5:20 Fable leads by 11 votes (TF2 +6)
LEAD CHANGE #12
5:25 TF2 leads by 15 votes (TF2 +26)
5:30 TF2 leads by 61 votes (TF2 +46)
5:35 TF2 leads by 78 votes (TF2 +17)
5:40 TF2 leads by 104 votes (TF2 +26)
5:45 TF2 leads by 90 votes (Fable +14)
5:50 TF2 leads by 75 votes (Fable +15)
5:55 TF2 leads by 22 votes (Fable +53)
6:00 TF2 leads by 43 votes (TF2 +21)
6:05 TF2 leads by 30 votes (Fable +13)
6:10 TF2 leads by 13 votes (Fable +17)
6:15 TF2 leads by 41 votes (TF2 +28)
6:20 TF2 leads by 10 votes (Fable +31)
6:25 TF2 leads by 1 votes (Fable +9)
LEAD CHANGE #13
6:30 Fable leads by 2 votes (Fable +3)
LEAD CHANGE #14
6:35 TF2 leads by 55 votes (TF2 +57)
6:40 TF2 leads by 114 votes (TF2 +59)
6:45 TF2 leads by 115 votes (TF2 +1)
6:50 TF2 leads by 118 votes (TF2 +3)
6:55 TF2 leads by 141 votes (TF2 +23)
7:00 TF2 leads by 175 votes (TF2 +34)
7:05 TF2 leads by 177 votes (TF2 +2)
7:10 TF2 leads by 210 (TF2 +33)
7:15 TF2 leads by 189 votes (Fable +21)
7:20 TF2 leads by 175 votes (Fable +14)
7:25 TF2 leads by 161 votes (Fable +14)
7:30 TF2 leads by 162 votes (TF2 +1)
7:35 TF2 leads by 163 votes (TF2 +1)
7:40 TF2 leads by 154 votes (Fable +9)
7:45 TF2 leads by 140 (Fable +14)
7:50 TF2 leads by 138 (Fable +2)
7:55 TF2 leads by 112 (Fable +26)
8:00 TF2 leads by 107 (Fable +5)
8:05 TF2 leads by 117 (TF2 +10)
8:10 TF2 leads by 121 (TF2 +4)
8:15 TF2 leads by 90 (Fable +31)
8:20 TF2 leads by 84 (Fable +6)
8:25 TF2 leads by 95 (TF2 +11)
8:30 TF2 leads by 108 (TF2 +13)
8:35 TF2 leads by 97 (Fable +11)
8:40 TF2 leads by 65 (Fable +32)
8:45 TF2 leads by 56 (Fable +9)
8:50 TF2 leads by 43 (Fable +13)
8:55 TF2 leads by 37 (Fable +6)
LEAD CHANGE #15
9:00 Fable leads by 1 (Fable +38)
LEAD CHANGE #16
9:05 TF2 leads by 16 (TF2 +17)
9:10 TF2 leads by 13 (Fable +3)
9:15 TF2 leads by 20 (TF2 +7)
9:20 TF2 leads by 15 (Fable +5)
9:25 TF2 leads by 24 (TF2 +9)
9:30 TF2 leads by 23 (Fable +1)
9:35 TF2 leads by 45 (TF2 +22)
9:40 TF2 leads by 43 (Fable +2)
9:45 TF2 leads by 13 (Fable +30)
9:50 TF2 leads by 14 (TF2 +1)
9:55 TF2 leads by 23 (TF2 +9)
LEAD CHANGE #17
10:00 Fable leads by 15 (Fable +38)
LEAD CHANGE #18
10:05 TF2 leads by 1 (TF2 +16)
10:10 TF2 leads by 33 (TF2 +32)
10:15 TF2 leads by 47 (TF2 +14)
10:20 TF2 leads by 29 (Fable +18)
10:25 TF2 leads by 5 (Fable +24)
10:30 TF2 leads by 14 (TF2 +9)
10:35 TF2 leads by 33 (TF2 +19)
10:40 TF2 leads by 42 (TF2 +9)
10:45 TF2 leads by 15 (Fable +27)
10:50 TF2 leads by 12 (Fable +3)
LEAD CHANGE #19
10:55 Fable leads by 11 (Fable +23)
LEAD CHANGE #20
11:00 TF2 leads by 29 (TF2 +40)
11:05 TF2 leads by 57 (TF2 +28)
11:10 TF2 leads by 77 (TF2 +20)
11:15 TF2 leads by 92 (TF2 +15)
11:20 TF2 leads by 88 (Fable +4)
11:25 TF2 leads by 84 (Fable +4)
11:30 TF2 leads by 89 (TF2 +5)
11:35 TF2 leads by 65 (Fable +24)
11:40 TF2 leads by 69 (TF2 +4)
11:45 TF2 leads by 70 (TF2 +1)
11:50 TF2 leads by 50 (Fable +19)
11:55 TF2 leads by 14 (Fable +37)
12:00 TF2 wins by 37 (TF2 +23)
Team Fortress 2 actually ended up winning the ASV almost every single hour, including building up a peak lead of 210 at one point to shatter Frog's record, but Fable would come back every single time. With 90 minutes left the two games were a measly 5 votes apart, and this is about when the TF2 fanbase kicked into action. They got this thing up to 92 with only 40 minutes left, and kept their foot on the gas until match's end. Fable made one final comeback attempt, but obviously it fell short. Most games struggle to get 100 votes in the final hour of a poll. Both of these games were pulling 150s out of their ass in an attempt to out-rally the other.
For all we know Fable is the stronger game neutrally, but there was no possible way TF2 was losing this match close. Not with that fanbase. I want to feel bad for how Fable lost this match, but then I think back to Thanksgiving, where my father in law was playing Fable 3 and farting in people's faces all over the kingdom, and realize the correct game won this match. You can have a legitimately good, fun game with funny characters winning, or you can have a series that resorts to toilet humor winning. For this match, GameFAQs made the right choice.
Graphs of Alec's Update Charts[]
- Chart of Lead: https://archive.is/20131106012111/img213.imageshack.us/img213/935/tf2lead.jpg
- Chart of Updates: https://archive.is/20131106012036/img638.imageshack.us/img638/8080/tf2up.jpg
Match Trends[]
