Results[]
Tuesday, April 14, 2020
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 3 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 74 |
| Match Date | Tuesday, April 14, 2020 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Spider-Man - 61.68% 50 for - 3 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Spider-Man - 31.61% |
| User Votes |
Spider-Man - 5431 Minecraft - 3949 |
| Anonymous Votes |
Spider-Man - 5074 Minecraft - 3806 |
It blows me away that only 31.61% of people predicted Spiderman to win twice, while 82% of gurus got this right. Casuals get a few matches over on us each contest, but by and large we are much, much better than they are at all this. Either casuals had zero faith in Spiderman being a beast this contest, or they fell for the trap of thinking Minecraft or Dota 2 would win here via rallies. Leon4 has mentioned this a bunch of times, including currently where there are debates taking place over x-stats adjustments, but the disrespect for Spiderman before, during, and especially after this contest was insane.
First off, Spiderman holds the record for fastest-selling first party exclusive on the Playstation 4. In the first three days of release, the game sold 3.3 million copies and had a PS4 bundle going on. The current sales data is a bit screwey, but estimates have it between 14 and 15 million. Those are some serious numbers, and to put that initial 3.3 million in perspective, the movie Spiderman Homecoming made 117 million dollars in its opening weekend. Far From Home opened on a Tuesday and made 185 million in its opening 6 day weekend.
The PS4 Spiderman game that people keep trying to downplay for whatever reason made 198 million dollars in its first three days. Assuming the low estimate of 14 million in sales, it's made 840 million dollars. That is a seriously legit video game, and it's right up this site's alley. It's not the typical casualbait garbage like Call of Duty or Grand Theft Auto, my friends. This is Spiderman.... you know, something us nerds should love. I don't quite understand the downplay here.
By the way, this also shows how respectable Minecraft's exit was. 42% on Spiderman is no joke, especially given the numbers I just went over. If that game could ever rally its community to a poll for these contests, it would swamp everything. I think its players are too busy using quarantine time to try building Planet Earth to scale to really care, though.
Ctes's Analysis[]
This is probably the match that makes it so difficult for our board to accept Marvel’s Spider-Man is just really good. We have no faith in Minecraft being worth anything and we weren’t very openminded to Spider-Man being that either. Spider-Man had a really successful launch and we’ve shown to really like the similar Batman games in the past, so I’m not sure why it was that difficult to believe. Also, remember that Spider-Man was doing a few percentages better before all the rallying in the Octopath Traveler vs. Shovel Knight match happened. Both parties seem to prefer Minecraft in this match. The prediction percentage is really low. That’s what happens when you share a fourpack with both Minecraft and Dota 2, I suppose!
Minecraft is not exactly the type of game that tends to do well here. It’s not one of our typically liked genres, a lot of its playerbase is younger than us, and why would you need to go to a FAQ site for it. It seems like obvious casual bait that isn’t worth much when it comes down to it. It also finished very low in the 2015 x-stats after losing to Halo, which went on to get killed by Final Fantasy VII.
It was however brought up before that perhaps Minecraft was a bit undervalued in the 2015 x-stats because of the Halo vs. Final Fantasy VII match, as perhaps FFVII is a really bad opponent for Halo. This contest makes it seem like there might be some truth to the theory. I also just think we tend to group Minecraft too much with usual casual bait like GTA, Fortnite, Dota, WoW etc. Unlike all of those, it’s not really as disliked by anyone as it used be. We might not care for it much, but most of the hate movement against it has died down and everyone knows what it is. Furthermore, it’s huge enough that even a great part of our site has probably tried it out. Finally, it’s a Game of the Decade contest. Minecraft might boost a bit from that, because it’s one of the biggest games of all time and most sites mention it when discussing Game of the Decade. Minecraft will probably make it in again and be casual bait once more but still not get very far again, but it’s worth seeing it back I think, and it can win matches against the right games.
Safer777's Analysis[]
So most just picked MSM and it makes sense. Minecraft is the biggest game in the world and the game with the most sales ever and it is out for barely 10 years. BUT it is too casual for this site so yeah it never stood a chance without a rally of some kind. Well it can beat a lot of games here for sure but nothing major.
So for the match. Of course MSM won BUT the crew overestimated it. Everyone had it above 60 yet it finished lower than that. So I guess it is a sign of MSM beeing weak because let's be real I don't think we really care for this game here. It just faced an easy opponent and it won. Or maybe Minecraft is legit and I am stupid. In every other site pretty sure Minecraft would win I do believe. Also if we ever have another character contest let's just have any character. I mean we have a Spider Man game and a Batman game who both did good in this contest but Spider Man and Batman are not eligible for character contests. Why? Just put everyone there and see what happens! Pretty sure almost everyone here wants that too!
Tsunami's Analysis[]
So about that assertion that Minecraft is weak...ah, wait, we don't have any gauge on Spider-Man. Let's try that again.
So about that assertion that licensed games are weak... 57.65% may not seem terribly impressive for this tournament, but it is a round 2 match, and more importantly...Minecraft's not weak. Back in 2015, it got 43.28% on Halo. Not a Halo sequel; the original Halo. Yes, Halo is known for being a disappointment in contests, but it is still a big-name franchise and this is the first game in the series we're talking about. And Spider-Man did better against Minecraft than Halo did.
Yeah, this was a match in which both games looked good. Minecraft was able to easily cruise past the percentage predicted for it by the Oracles, but Spider-Man still gets to say it beat a game harder than Halo did. Win-win! Except for the casuals; it's pretty clear by the prediction percentage that they thought Minecraft would win this outright.