Results[]
Round One
Wednesday, November 11, 2015Ulti's Analysis[]
Division | Division 4 |
---|---|
Match # | 27 |
Match Date | Wednesday, November 11, 2015 |
Oracle Expectations |
Metroid Prime - 63.68% 106 for - 0 against |
GameFAQs Prediction |
Metroid Prime - 71.90% |
The Elder Scrolls series did not have a good contest outside of Skyrim. Both Oblivion and Morrowind lost in round 1, and the former was expected to make a big run had it gotten out of the first match.
That being said, they do have some respectable strength here, and even in a round 1 loss Morrowind showed that Metroid Prime had a serious weakness that its younger brother would take advantage of later. In the beginning of this poll, Metroid Prime was above 70%. As you can see by looking at the final results here, Metroid Prime finished with 63%. Losing 7% over the course of 24 hours is not a good thing, and it's rather odd for a Nintendo game. Usually these games have strong power hour votes and strong morning votes. Some have strong after-school votes.
Metroid as a series, for rather obvious reasons, doesn't have typical Nintendo trends. Metroid was a star of this contest, but if it was more Nintendo-like it could have pulled off two of the biggest upsets of all time. As-is, it would suffer two very painful and very close losses in the realm of what-could-have-been. It's always been like this for Metroid, too. Just awful day votes that really mess with it in close matches. This year, Morrowind showed us very early that things weren't going to change. Metroid would end up having a good contest, but it could have been so much better.
Ctes's Analysis[]
This match was boring in itself, but sorta interesting in the sense that Metroid Prime would have a big upcoming match with Skyrim and this match could show its chances. The issue is that we had no idea where Morrowind would be this contest. It wasn't exactly strong in 2009, but beat Silent Hill 2 and exceeded expectations a little bit against FFX and MGS2 even though it was a boring match and it was never close. It probably had some strength then, just didn't get a match where it could show itself. In 2010 it got blown out by Melee and was expected to. Basically, we have no good read on this game. It was also expected to have fallen a bit this contest. It was already overshadowed by Oblivion last time and now Skyrim could've made this even worse. We just didn't know where it fell from, so it was really hard to tell its strength, but everyone could at least agree that Skyrim should be quite a bit stronger than Morrowind.
If you look at Metroid Prime's previous results, then it looks pretty darn good here I think. It doesn't look like a game that would lose to Fallout 3, but we have to once again factor in Undertale rallying from the previous day. Prime was heavily favored by this. It started out above 70% and basically dropped percentage the whole day so Prime would probably not break 60% by this much without coming right after that rally. This didn't exactly pit as the favorite against Skyrim unless it would have the same spillover boost as it had today. To be fair, that didn't seem so unlikely! You also have to factor in that Morrowind might've very well boosted slightly from Skyrim being there at the same time, so that evens out bracket votes at the very least.