Results[]
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 4 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 78 |
| Match Date | Tuesday, November 24, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Metroid Prime - 54.14% 86 for - 4 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Metroid Prime - 32.42% |
Rematches are very rarely as good as the original, and it's very rare for the loser of the original to turn it around in a rematch. There's a reason it's such a big deal whenever a rematch reverses a result. There's a massive precedent for this stretching across many contests, but my favorite example is Sonic vs Samus in 2002 and 2004.
In 2002, Samus came back from down 1500 in the final 3 hours to beat Sonic by 34 votes, and when CJayC legitimized the result it set off one of the biggest firestorms in contest history. In 2004, CJayC had the idea to set up the bracket so that Sonic and Samus would have a big rematch.
The result? This: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1777-chaos-division-final-sonic-the-hedgehog-vs-samus-aran
There are other examples of rematches not being very good, like Snake having to beat Knuckles three years in a row, but you get the idea. Things like Crono turning around the Vincent upset a year later or Link getting revenge on Cloud don't happen very often.
So when Metroid Prime and Half-Life 2 were set up to have a rematch of their classic from Game of the Decade (http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4182-northeast-division-final-metroid-prime-vs-half-life-2), I knew how it was going to go. Add in Half-Life series fans becoming very disenfranchised by the lack of Half-Life 3 news, and you have a recipe for a virtual parallel to Sonic vs Samus from 2004.
Sure enough, the match was 60-40 right at the start and Metroid Prime never looked back. Given how similar the percentages here were to Skyrim vs Goldeneye, it led to the obvious question of Goldeneye vs Half-Life 2. I would assume Goldeneye is the stronger game for rather obvious reasons (NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS WHERE THE FUCK IS MY HALF-LIFE 3), but Metroid Prime would have a lot to say about that en route to yet another classic match for one Samus Aran
Ctes' Analysis[]
I believe this match was set up due to it being a very close match in Game of the Decade.
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4182-northeast-division-final-metroid-prime-vs-half-life-2
That certainly looks like a match that could've gone either way in a rematch, but I don't see why it would be very interesting to have again. Of all rematches we could have had, this one was a lock. At the very best, the difference in strength would've remained the same, which would result in a Metroid Prime victory undoubtfully. Sure, votals were lower, but there's no reason for all the removed votes to be Metroid fans. The thing is though, a Half-Life drop was to be completely expected. Half-Life is from 2004 and Metroid Prime from 2002, so this has nothing to do with age, but Half-Life 2 has been a dead series for a long time now. There's an internet meme going about the Half-Life 3 we have never seen or heard of. Stuff like that hurts the series. It's been dead for so long, this goes for everything. I'm sure that if the latest Final Fantasy entries had been fantastic, then VII would've held up better too and that's not even the same story, just the same universe. In any case, Half-Life 2 had obviously dropped, it was just a matter of how much. Another reason is that it's by far biggest on PC, which isn't too strong on GameFAQs.
Metroid Prime wins with 58% of the vote, but remember there was rally spillover, which clearly favored it. It started out above 60% and fell for most of the match, so on another day it wins by less percentage, but it's still a clear victory, not worthy of repeat. If Allen purposely set up this match as I believe, he should have expected it to be less good, but perhaps he expected a Prime drop too. Other M wasn't too well received and Metroid has stood still since then, but it's only five years ago and the franchise is still relevant through Smash mostly, but when stuff like Nintendo Land comes, you see that Nintendo still remembers the franchise, even though no one actually cares about that game. It is to be expected that a series like Metroid holds up a lot better. Super Metroid and Metroid Prime are the sole representatives of the franchise, but both are very well seeded and did well too, almost pulling off a big round 3 upset each. Prime's run wasn't as great as Super Metroid's I know, but still pretty good. I don't doubt it'll do great in a future contest either.
Judged by previous x-stats, Prime looked fantastic in its next match, but the already mentioned reasons explains why we can't go off of that. Not to mention Skyrim's matches have gotten messed with by spillover too. Skyrim still went into the match as the favorite, but Prime supporters certainly had reason to hope for the upset. Rally spillover looked to only help Prime and it could very well be deciding too. Prime failed to get past Fallout 3 in Game of the Decade, so while going with the older game and/or the Nintendo game in a debatable match seems smart, it loss for Prime could certainly happen. But with how Skyrim didn't look as good as Fallout 3 did then along with spillover factor, Prime could very well reach round 4.