Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Midgar Division |
|---|---|
| Match # | 21 |
| Match Date | Saturday, August 21st, 2004 |
| Vote difference | 7,397 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Ness - 50.18% 43 for - 26 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Ness - 54.16% (17,992 brackets) |
This match was the perfect example of an overrated, overhyped dud. When the bracket first came out, this match was one of the few that was heavily debated before hand. The question, of course, is why? One of the many running themes in this contest was that few people will vote for 3D platformer characters despite the games all selling well, and Jak fit into that mold very well. Because of Ness and Earthbound not having a good contest history, Ness was unfairly treated like a joke coming into this match.
There are only two matches that you needed to look at in 2003 in order to make a solid prediction in Ness/Jak: Luigi vs Ratchet, and Bowser vs Ness. Bowser is much stronger than Luigi is, yet Luigi's percentage on Ratchet came very close to what Bowser's percentage was on Ness. For Luigi to have such a close percentage to Bowser, he would have to have faced an opponent much weaker than Ness. If that wasn't a blatant hint as to how Ness/Jak would go, then there was one other number of interest. Assuming no Bowser/Ness SFF, Jak would need to be able to beat Ratchet with at least 60% of the vote to be considered as strong as Ness. If you add in the possibility of Bowser/Ness SFF, that number gets much higher. Yet despite all of this, the Jak supporters on the board remained strong in their beliefs that Jak's mainstream exposure, Jak and Daxter's sales, and Ness's cult status would equal a win for Jak. I, like many others, had the belief that Ness's cult status didn't matter. Mainstream voters don't vote in our polls; we do. The average person might not know who Ness is, but most of the people who visit GameFAQs -- a site that favors console RPGs above all other genres -- are hardcore gamers. And most hardcore gamers know who Ness is, be it from Earthbound or the Smash Brothers series.
When the poll started, Ness jumped out to a quick 1000 vote lead, and after the early morning vote kept the vote margin tied at 1000 for a time, the day vote favored Ness. He caught fire during that time, and rode the momentum all the way to a 55-45 blowout. I call this a blowout simply because if you went by board polls and/or BOP numbers, this poll was supposed to be dead even. The reality is that many people underestimated Ness simply because Ness, as well as Earthbound itself, bombed in past contests. But like I've said in every match involving them, no one cares about 3D platformer characters anymore. Jak is just another 3D platformer to this site, and he is no exception to the trend. His games may have sold well, but so did Tanner's. And Tanner is still trying to pull little pieces of shrapnel out of his skin over in the corner.
The fate of Ness may have been little more than getting killed by Auron in round two, but it was nice to actually see him win a match. Ness isn't the type of character who deserves to be treated like a joke. Save that for the likes of Gordon Freeman and Tanner =)
Match Trends[]
