Results[]
Friday, November 27, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 7 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 92 |
| Match Date | Friday, November 27, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Resident Evil 4 - 60.30% 90 for - 0 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Resident Evil 4 - 52.10% |
Of the four matches that took place during this contest day, this was the only match that was remotely normal. GTA5/SMRPG, San Andreas/Chrono Cross, and Witcher 3/MGS2 were all weird for various reasons, but RE4 was always going to beat New Vegas with ease. I suppose one could call it disappointing that RE4 didn't break 60% in this match (and a lot of Oracle players would agree!), but no one really thought this match was some warning sign for the future. Fallout 4 hype was still in effect, after all.
Turns out it actually was a warning sign, though that would not become clear until next round.
This match booted the Fallout series from the contest rather early, though the obvious Undertale circumstance (not to mention Fallout fans refusing to counter-rally) was to blame for that more than Resident Evil 4 was. In thinking about Fallout getting a relatively early exit from the contest as a series, it was hardly the only example. Since this PCA is loaded with lists, here's my list of relatively surprising early series exits from this contest, or at least series where not making round 3 could be considered disappointing to various people:
Mega Man (I'm including MMX and the vanilla Mega Man series not making the contest here, just a crime)
Portal
Halo
Call of Duty (irrelevant on GameFAQs, but to gaming at large it losing early matters)
Fallout
Half-Life
Mario Kart (only because Super Mario Kart absolutely should have made it in)
Warcraft
Grand Theft Auto
BioShock
Ctes' Analysis[]
I think this was the first warning sign that Resident Evil 4 had fallen in strength, but I'm not sure anybody truly caught on yet. For reference, by far the most people had Resident Evil 4 above this and well over 60%. It failed to live up to what we expected of it here, but its first round victory against Paper Mario seemed quite convincing! Turns out that Fallout: New Vegas and Paper Mario are near equals. Anyway, for once, board 8 wasn't at full force blaming the game that got lower than expected and calling out upsets the following rounds, which is kind of hilarious because for once it'd actually be correct. It's probably because the Paper Mario result was expected.
The result today was credited to Fallout 4 hype. The game just came out, the community was very active, it made sense that there'd be at least a temporary boost to the series. Especially if Fallout fans were annoyed that Fallout 3 drew Undertale in round 2. After today's match, Fallout was completely out of the contest despite having a new game coming out right around when the contest began. New Vegas was never gonna win this match, but it didn't seem weird that it would be a bit stronger than we thought. In reality, it was a warning sign that Super Mario RPG would take advantage of bandwagon and a weakened Resident Evil 4 to win the division, but nobody took note of it.