Results[]
Round One
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 2 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 15 |
| Match Date | Sunday, November 8, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Halo: Combat Evolved - 57.02% 88 for - 20 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Halo: Combat Evolved - 38.88% |
205 people picked Minecraft to win this entire contest. 203 people picked Mario 3. 124 picked Undertale. 4145 picked Ocarina.
There are a smart group of bracketmakers who know that contests are very likely to be decided by massive outside rallies, and plan accordingly. There are two main reasons for this, one being L-Block breaking the mold and the other being people are beyond done with Link or Zelda winning every year.
All contest winners:
Summer 2002 - Link
Summer 2003 - Cloud
Spring 2004 - Final Fantasy 7
Summer 2004 - Link
Spring 2005 - Sephiroth
Summer 2005 - Link
Spring 2006 - The Legend of Zelda
Summer 2006 - Link
Summer 2007 - L-Block
Summer 2008 - Link
Summer 2009 - Ocarina of Time
Summer 2010 - Link
Game of the Decade - Majora's Mask
Rivalry Rumble - Link/Ganon
Winter 2013 - Draven
Winter 2015 - Undertale
Even Majora's Mask, which definitely qualifies as a shocking bracket winner, is a Zelda game. So when people looked at this bracket and tried to figure out who could get a joke rally for the title, Minecraft was one of the games highlighted.
There are a lot of things that go into a rally. You need timing, luck, a true internet buzz, a rabid fanbase, a justifiable cause, more luck, and most importantly you need the right contest path. L-Block did what it did because it had the perfect setup to sneak by over and over until it grew out of control. Majora's Mask did the same thing until it eventually caught lightning in a bottle, caught a massive rally against FFX, then beat Brawl on the back of anti-votes. Draven caught a rally in round 1, smashed the fuck out of Capcom, and the rest was history. We'll get to Undertale later.
Minecraft was seen as potentially having that path. Halo is an anti-vote magnet, and then it would have another anti-vote magnet in Final Fantasy 7 in round 2. From there, who knows?
Unfortunately, it wouldn't quite work out that way. Halo definitely ate some anti-votes early, but it was able to build a comfortable lead and ride a very comfortable, very steady 56-44 percentage all day long. People were scared to death that Minecraft would beat Halo here and then laugh at our contest; they had the right idea, but were scared of the wrong game doing it. It was the 124 Undertale fans that were the real MVPs.
Ctes's Analysis[]
Halo has definitely fallen a lot since last contest, but we weren't truly aware of that yet I suppose. The original Halo was somehow lucky enough to face one of the few games it could beat and it didn't look impressive doing it. Minecraft was one the games people feared could get a serious rally going pre-contest. It's funny how it works that way with games ending with “craft”. It certainly had a good round 1 opponent to start off with though its second round opinion would really require something else of it.
And yet nothing happened at all. The match was very boring, but I guess most regulars would rather have that than the rally it would take to make it interesting. Turns out Minecraft was not the game we should fear rallies from. It makes sense to. This game got a huge amount of its popularity from kids. Very small kids. Take this from somebody who has worked in Toys R Us before. They're not going to rally for it. Besides, if trends existed, Halo might just be the perfect counter to the ASV Minecraft would have.
Had Minecraft won this match it would almost certainly perform better on FFVII than Halo did though, but it was never going to happen. Hopefully Minecraft doesn't make the bracket again. I know I talk about this too much, but with this match it should be fair. Super Mario Bros should've made the bracket and based on bracket placement there's nothing I'd rather replace than Minecraft so it can double Halo. Minecraft probably will continue getting into these things though. Look at the prediction percentage. Halo is not badly favored among casuals and Minecraft was the big favorite here. It's mainstream enough to be that way.