Results[]
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 4 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 80 |
| Match Date | Tuesday, November 24, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Zelda: Twilight Princess - 65.02% 88 for - 2 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Zelda: Twilight Princess - 57.29% |
Not all doublings are created equal, and though this match's winner was very predictable, Persona 4 was only expected to get 27% on Twilight Princess based on Game of the Decade. It obviously went out and did much better than that, and though it didn't come close to justifying its 2 seed, it at least went out there and didn't thoroughly embarrass itself. The constant overseeding of Persona games does prove its vocal minority fanbase, however, though at least Zelda did us the favor of getting rid of those people.
It's going to be funny when Persona 4 becomes only the second 1 seed to lose to a 16 in round 1. (1)Persona 4 vs (16)Portal or (1)Persona 4 vs (16)Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door are a lot more realistic than one might think. In this contest alone, we saw Phoenix Wright get a 16 seed and finish in the top half of the stats.
Or let's just go full circle. (1)Persona 4 vs (16)Halo: Combat Evolved. You would laugh until the end of time if Halo won that match. Don't even lie.
Ctes' Analysis[]
A #2 seed really isn't supposed in to be almost doubled in round 2, even if it did run into a Zelda game. That said, this isn't a bad showing from a Persona game. It's a small niche franchise, but the fourth game is legit in these things and is the only one that might not be niche. It's also the only one that we should see again of the ones currently released at least. Avoiding the doubling here was probably the fair goal, and it wasn't that close to it. Persona 4 received its great seeding because it has a very dedicated fanbase that will always support it, unlike something like RBY, which is loved by many, but it doesn't have the same dedicated group. It took niche fanbases to get stuff like 999 in this, but Persona 4, already being a decent entry, claimed a #2 seed with it. This also pretty much confirms that Persona 4 will continue to appear in these contests, and honestly, I fear the third one might very well too.
After the previous round there were a few people believing Persona 4 could get close this match. It scored one of the highest percentages of the first round. Now, considering that Persona 4 didn't even come remotely close here, that leaves 999 as a huge contender for the absolute weakest game of the contest. As for Twilight Princess, it's a strong game, but quite unfortunately it ran into Super Mario 64 in round 3, which was an outside contender for the finalist before Undertale rallies happened. At some point during this day, Heroic Mario said he believed that Twilight Princess would beat Super Mario 64, because what game would totally beat Final Fantasy Tactics? Well, I don't really doubt a single bit that Persona 4 would not. That match up seems really easy. Like, think of Dragon Quest VIII vs. Persona 3, but here it's just strong games. Plus, it'll probably be less close. Twilight Princess might be able to do wonder in Wind Waker's spot, but not here.