Results[]
Round One
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 8 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 58 |
| Match Date | Thursday, November 19, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
EarthBound - 49.69% 52 for - 44 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
EarthBound - 57.62% |
60% of the guru picked Borderlands 2 to win this match, and for good reason. EarthBound had never done a single thing in these contests before 2015, and was the type of game that we would expect to get rolled over by anything with any casual bait -- ie, Borderlands 2. In 2004 there was a ton of hype that EarthBound would beat Doom. After winning the board vote, it got rolled. There was minor hype in 2009, but most people understood that a fourpack featuring three SNES RPGs and Yoshi's Island meant EarthBound was a massive longshot to get second place.
Ness the character had never really done anything of note, either, outside the occasional win in round 1 over pure fodder. His 1v1 character wins are against Jak, CJ, and Geno. Hardly murderer's row.
So in typical EarthBound fashion, it decides to steamroll a poll for its first contest win when there was no hype behind it whatsoever. Because that's how EarthBound rolls. Bear in mind that Borderlands 2 won Game of the Year in 2013, and even won Review of the Year back when we were still having those polls. Borderlands 2 isn't some joke game that no one here has ever heard of.
And it just got smacked. EarthBound was well over 60% for quite some time, and it took a hefty percentage bleed for this match to look even remotely respectable. There were a lot of matches and hints that pointed toward the 90s and the SNES in particular being all business this contest, but EarthBound blowing Borderland 2's doors off showed that 90s were absolutely not. fucking. around. Show any weakness whatsoever as a new game and you were absolutely getting waxed.
It says something when this match is an example of the casuals laughing at us, too. Even they knew what was going on this contest, and I imagine a lot of people just conveniently ignored these two polls:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3197-which-classic-snes-game-would-you-most-like-to-see-announced
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4843-which-unannounced-nintendo-franchise-would-you-most-like-to
The potential for EarthBound to show off in a fair bracket was apparently obvious. Seeing it actually happen was really something else.
Play EarthBound.
Ctes's Analysis[]
This match is really darn hillarious. Borderlands 2 was the board favorite and honestly, it makes sense that Borderlands 2 should win this match looking at past results. Earthbound was no match for Yoshi's Island in 2009. That also means that after this contest, Yoshi's Island would be one of the biggest snubs when it comes to strength seeing as this is the Year of SNES. Along with Super Mario Kart, it's a game I'd really loved to have seen in action. I don't care if it means even more Mario games, I prefer games that can do something above games that can't and keep returning. Anyway, in 2004 Earthbound lost to Doom in similar numbers as this match. Then the following round, Doom got tripled by Final Fantasy VI. With that result in mind, there was plenty of reason to think that EarthBound's performance in 2009 wasn't just SFF, but EarthBound being a really weak game here. Furthermore, EarthBound was never released in Europe before virtual console, and while that doesn't stop you from doing good, see Super Mario RPG, it's certainly not something that helps when you're having big doubt to begin with.
Now should Borderlands 2 be particularly strong? Not exactly, but it shouldn't be terrible either. The first Borderlands was in Game of the Decade and couldn't break 30% on Final Fantasy X, but it got close and considering Earthbound's lost easily to Doom which did worse against a Final Fantasy you'd expect to be weaker than Final Fantasy X, at least at the time, well, Borderlands 2 should be the favorite today, even if you always thought Final Fantasy VI would be stronger than X. The idea was also that Borderlands 2 would be stronger than its prequel due to being even better received. One last thing is that Borderlands 2 won Game of the Year on this site. It doesn't mean too much, but it beat Xenoblade Chronicles and Mass Effect 3 among others. Not a bad showing. Picking Borderlands 2 was perfectly reasonable.
There was of course also reason to pick EarthBound, after all, it was almost 50-50 on board 8 and EarthBound has higher prediction percentage. First of all, it's a Nintendo game and a JRPG. That will always have the advantage above a game that isn't this. But most importantly, it's another case of old vs. new. If DKC2 could come through against Xenoblade Chronicles, then why shouldn't Earthbound win here. Sometimes it was just difficult to pick the old above the new, sometimes the gap just seemed to be big to begin with and hard to have closed even for nostalgiaFAQs.
But damn, the gap had closed if there ever was one, then a new and really big gap was created in EarthBounds's favor instead. I don't think anyone felt 100% confident in Borderlands 2, but it was not supposed to lost this badly. In the beginning of the poll, EarthBound was nearing a doubling, it was close to 65% and it was insane to watch. It declined a bit afterwards showing it had the board vote and even more during the deadzone, because damn not being released at its time in Europe matters there, but it still ended up with a really easy win. I like Borderlands, but it's really satisfying too. You might find EarthBound to be a really big game on the internet, but it wasn't, it's sequel couldn't even be released outside of Japan. Ness appearing in every Smash is a great reason for why people even know about it to begin with, but it's fantastic. One of the greatest 2D RPG's. It really showed itself in these contests today.
It can't be entirely contributed to Year of SNES though. Borderlands 2 would obviously be stronger a few years ago. It's just the wrong time to be a recent Western game on this site. I mean, being a Western game was never that great to begin with here, but now that recent games generally don't do well, it just becomes even worse. And no, Borderlands was probably never a franchise that was strong to begin with, but it really wasn't this bad. Picking old against new in debatable matches was a good idea, but we didn't know that new had fallen as much as it had before the contest began. Borderlands 2 deserved a contest chance, especially after winning GotY here no matter how small an achievement that may be, in 2012 especially, but it's not a franchise that needs to have reputation in the future really. It's a shame, they're good games, but there's no reason it. It has fallen a lot and it's not something that's gonna get much better probably.
Despite Borderlands 2 being weaker than anticipated, Year of SNES is still insane. Let's just sum up how the SNES games have done up until now that the final SNES game in the bracket had a match… - Chrono Trigger scored an insane blowout. - Mega Man X destroyed its opponent in a debatable match. - Final Fantasy VI put up insane numbers against ACII. - Super Mario World ended up fighting a huge rally, but held up like a king and was destroying until then - Donkey Kong Country 2 took a major upset against a game of the most popular genre here - A Link to the Past delivered one of the absolute biggest blowouts - Final Fantasy IV almost put up 70% against Deus Ex - Super Metroid completely destroyed Call of Duty 4 in perhaps the most shocking SNES performance - SMRPG had no trouble winning a highly debated match that a fellow Mario RPG stood no chance against five years ago - EarthBound destroying today as I just went throughout
That's 10 matches and 10 very promising victories. DKC2 was the only one in any danger and it was expected to lose that match with ease. Every single of them over performed in percentage (unless you count SMW after Undertale rallies). Super Mario Kart and Yoshi's Island among possible others would only contribute to this list unless they faced each other or some elite opponent from another console. It was a great time for SNES fans. 7/10 of them looked great to go in round 2 as well, with one of the three that didn't being because it faced another SNES game. Had we known this would be Year of SNES, I doubt anyone would have picked Borderlands 2 either.