Results[]
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Division 7 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 119 |
| Match Date | Thursday, December 10, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Mario RPG - 48.19% 20 for - 54 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Super Mario RPG - 6.41% |
Undertale going on its crazy run partially blinded people to Super Mario RPG also making a crazy run of its own, and even though it winning three matches was predictable the second it beat Oblivion, the match here against Resident Evil 4 was its coming out party. Mario RPG's prediction percentages may not be Undertale level, but they were still drastically low and Mario RPG needs to be given all the credit in the world for the run it made this year.
As fate would have it, all those warning signs that Resident Evil 4 showed us leading up to this match were quite relevant. yoblazer makes one call every contest against the grain that pans out, and for this contest it was Mario RPG beating Resident Evil 4. His logic was that old games would embarrass new games in a fair bracket, and he was proven right tenfold as this contest progressed. There were signs all over the place that this was coming, but when the match itself happened and Resident Evil 4 never even came close, eyes were opened.
Even the standard SMRPG European percentage bleed did nothing to spare RE4 from getting thoroughly embarrassed here. All it did was turn a 57-43 beating into 54-46 overnight, but then the morning vote came and the burial continued. This wasn't just any game, either. This was Resident Evil 4, which is on the short list of being among the objectively greatest games ever made. And it just went out there and got its ass absolutely plowed for 24 solid hours.
There was a host of "this is why GameFAQs gets made fun of" topics, but really, this loss is on Capcom. Their business philosophy basically amounts to "throw as much shit on the wall as possible", and among the 2398432984 Resident Evil games they've made, they struck gold with Resident Evil 4.
How did they follow it up? In typical Capcom fashion. Go play RE5 and RE6 and see for yourself just how awful that company is. It sucks that RE4 had to be the game to sacrifice so that Capcom could get its comeuppance in this contest, but certain things need to be done for the greater good. RE4 getting pasted and making more people aware of how shit Capcom is counts as "the greater good". There is not one Capcom series that they have not completely run into the ground, and no one should ever buy games from those idiots ever again. Resident Evil 4 may not have deserved this beating, but Crapcom certainly did. That, the old > new theme, and Mario RPG getting its own bandwagon going spelled doom for RE4 before this match ever begun.
Even more alarming here is how 55-45 against RE4 was such a high number that the winner of MGS/MGS3 was likely also completely screwed. Mario RPG this contest was just on a whole different level.
Ctes' Analysis[]
Looking at the names and consoles at play here, there really shouldn't have been any doubt this would be the outcome, yet most people didn't doubt the opposite outcome would happen. Super Mario RPG hasn't looked particularly bad in the past, but seeing it put the same percentage on Street Fight II and clearly being a step behind GoldenEye doesn't make a victory today look very likely. Even after we realized this was the Year of SNES, Resident Evil 4 was still supposed to win it. It destroyed Paper Mario easily and its performances in the other rounds had good explanations. May I remind that Resident Evil 4 was legit stronger than Twilight Princess, Kingdom Hearts II and Metal Gear Solid 2 just six years ago? This match was supposed to go be easy for Resident Evil 4 and it just wasn't.
Though its not limited to that, the first reason is that Resident Evil 4 clearly lost a step or three. It doesn't matter what Super Mario RPG had going for it, 2009 Resident Evil 4 would've easily won this match and 2010 Resident Evil 4 clearly would too, even if it did seem weaker. I suppose this is partly due to NostalgiaFAQs, but also the Resident Evil franchise never really getting back to where it was at this point. Resident Evil 5 was nothing like 4, 6 is practically joke and who remembers games like Umbrella Chronicles. The series is not beyond saving, but it's in no good position and I think it hurts the overall picture of it.
Then of course it is the Year of SNES. This is not the Super Mario RPG from the previous contests. As with any other SNES game, it received this major boost from being from just the right age of gaming and it shows. However, I think Super Mario RPG had a strength boost beyond that. It had just the perfect bracket position. Coming out of an eight pack filled with Grand Theft Auto games and World of Warcraft might seem obvious to us, but is quite the upset to a casual. I'm certain Super Mario RPG had a bandwagon going on for it as this point to make this match even easier. Skyrim or not, there is no way Oblivion is stronger than Resident Evil 4 now. It also explain the percentage trends. Super Mario RPG still dropped a bit of percentage in the dead hours, but it was quite minimal compared to previous rounds and there is really no other explanation for that.
You really can't blame anyone for getting this match wrong. The prediction percentage really says it all. Despite this match seeming somewhat obvious in reverse, we had the Paper Mario result to look at the whole time and there was really no reason for Super Mario RPG and Paper Mario to be t hat far apart. For all we knew, the score on New Vegas might have been really great too with Fallout 4 just coming out and after seeing BioShock against Metal Gear Solid 3 the next day. It was discussed, but Resident Evil 4 was the favorite up until the beginning of the match.
Super Mario RPG was looking likely to accomplish big things now and get the miracle run of the contest. That title could be given to Undertale's run, but I don't think it should considering it was considering likely to win it all after round 1. Super Mario RPG was a favorite in the quarter-finals after today, but Metal Gear Solid 3 didn't look bad either. Resident Evil 4 was slightly stronger than it in 2009 and slightly weaker in 2010 and despite the Metal Gear Solid series losing a step as well, it's clearly a smaller one, and Snake Eater was currently redeeming itself quite a bit. If Super Mario RPG somehow didn't have a bandwagon going for it now, it certainly needed to have one next round.