Results[]
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Contest Quarterfinal |
|---|---|
| Match # | 124 |
| Match Date | Saturday, December 12, 2015 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Mario RPG - 53.10% 61 for - 12 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Super Mario RPG - 3.05% |
Can't blame the picture for MGS3's loss here, because this was as fair as possible. Axem Rangers vs Salute is as badass as you can get!
This was the match where the MGS series finally met its reckoning, though at least it would go down respectably. The writing was very much on the wall for SMRPG's win here, as it looked good for this entire contest while MGS... didn't. There really isn't a better way to put it. MGS looked awful, and it was lucky that divisions 7 and 8 were so weak, else it would not have a game in the final 8. Most of the Oracle picks were in SMRPG's favor, so we all knew what was coming.
Mario RPG went out and did what it always does, which was easily win the board vote. Mario RPG is everything this site loves -- JRPGs, Nintendo, Square, SNES, the 90s -- all rolled up into one package, and really it was the ultimate example of how hard the 1990s dominated this contest. One could even say Undertale has a 1990s feel to it.
SMRPG built up a 700 vote lead after an hour, and from here it was really only a matter of surviving the overnight vote, aka "why was I never released in Europe". SMRPG would eventually build up a lead of 930, which was more than enough to survive MGS3's overnight comeback attempt. MGS3 did a really good job overnight (and with Europe's help) to get the lead down under 500, but then the morning vote showed up. Mario RPG had dominated every morning vote leading up to this match, and it sure wasn't going to choke away a close match now. That 450 vote lead it had spiraled out of control in SMRPG's favor come morning time, and a close match turned into SMRPG's trends becoming a complete parody of itself. It really is hilarious to watch it go off during the board vote and morning vote every contest, and this year it was given a path where it could just laugh at all of its opponents come 8 am.
Undertale may have stolen all the headlines, but SMRPG's run was equally impressive. I'm too lazy to look up past prediction percentages, but 3.05% of people picking SMRPG to make it this far has to be among the lowest prediction percentages of all time in these things. It also proved that SMRPG/Oblivion was the most important round 1 tossup we've ever had. There's no telling how far Oblivion would have gone in this contest, but the thought of it making the semifinals while Skyrim couldn't win its own division is hilarious.
Ctes' Analysis[]
With this match, Super Mario RPG officially made the run of the contest. You can award Undertale with the title if you want, but it really shouldn't have it when it was the favorite to win after round 1. Only a single guru had Super Mario RPG making the semi-finals. It was Kenri, and he almost won the guru because of it actually, though he fell just five points short of Dp. That doesn't matter though, MGS2, Mass Effect 2, The Witcher 3, Starcraft and GTAV all had people picking them to win this match too. A single user having Super Mario RPG through today means nothing in this regard, it was the miracle run. Ironically, Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil 4 were the favorites to win this match and neither of them got here.
Speaking of irony, how ironic is it that SBAllen constructs a weaker bottom quarter of the bracket with the intention of having a game making the semi-finals that is neither from Nintendo or Square only for the Square developed Nintendo character game to win that quarter? It's probably not a good thing for how the outside views our taste here. When such a miracle run happens, it's no wonder we get NintendoFAQs, SquareFAQs, RPGFAQs and NostalgiaFAQs labeled on us. This match has all those four at once. Personally, I love runs like this. They make the contest really exciting. Overly large rallies just don't provide that same excitement. They provide more chaos instead. That said, I do find it to be a shame that two of my top 10 games, Resident Evil 4 and Metal Gear Solid 3, had to be the ones to close to the miracle run.
Despite Solid Snake having things handed to him for a couple of character contests, the Metal Gears Solid franchise sure doesn't catch any luck. Last contest, Metal Gear Solid games were the ones losing during the miracle run, which came from Shadow of the Colossus back then. Metal Gear Solid 3 managed to stop it with a night match. This time, that game gets to lose because of a similar run. Plus, overall, this has been a really rough contest for the franchise. At least Metal Gear Solid 3 managed to look really good two rounds before losing today. And hey, it's not so bad either! Super Mario RPG definitely had a bandwagon going on for it, it wouldn't have won this match naturally. It's not like Metal Gear Solid 3 was never in it either. It actually cut about 500 votes from the lead during the dead hours. Yes, Super Mario RPG is awful during that time, but cutting that much is still impressive. In the end, it was never close, but it doesn't look bad going on.
Now, look at the top 4. We have two games that made it there by insanely large rallies, we have the defending champion and then we have Super Mario RPG. I don't think there's any doubt about what the odd one out there is. I know Super Mario RPG had some great bracket placement to push it there, but compared to top 32 in 2004 and top 64 in 2009, top 4 is pretty darn great. Plus, do you realize how much Super Mario RPG redeemed here? We had so much discussion about whether or not a Mario game would make the semi-finals and if so, which one it would be. Super Mario RPG was never in that discussion. The three big Mario games didn't make it there, although none of them disappointed. Super Mario RPG did though. Furthermore, Mario was bashed so undeservedly this contest. With the Galaxies losing earlier than the Cookie predicted them to, Super Mario Bros. 3 failing to beat RBY, Super Mario World letting Animal Crossing win updates against it due to rally spillover, Super Mario Maker being a joke and so on. Mario didn't catch a break early on despite the only one of those things actually being a bad performance from Mario's side was Super Mario Maker. Now, Super Mario RPG made the semi-finals. It's not a Nintendo game, I know, but it is a Mario game. Who developed it makes no difference in this discussion.
You know what else the game redeemed? The SNES. You might say the SNES needed no such thing, but after coming off so strong early on, clearly being the most popular console overall on our Nostalgic site, the big SNES games were bested by the rally forces. Chrono Trigger and Super Mario World's potentials were cut short by rallies and A Link to the Past had its path set from the get go. Games like Super Metroid impressed a lot, so it's not like the SNES would've had a disappointing contest if Super Mario RPG didn't pull this off. We'd still remember it as the Year of SNES too. But in a contest remembered as that, you'd think one of the games should at least make the semi-finals wouldn't you? Well, I'm sure no one thought it would be Super Mario RPG, but it really did happen. We have a Mario game in the top 4 and we have a SNES game in the top 4. Obviously, Super Mario RPG stood no chance next round whatsoever, but that doesn't matter. Today it took the title as the star of the contest.