Results[]
Thursday, October 2nd, 2008
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 4 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 15 |
| Match Date | Thursday, October 2nd, 2008 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Alucard - 33.77% Diddy Kong - 23.69% Captain Falcon - 21.76% Kratos Aurion - 20.71% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Alucard first place (2pts) - 41.12% Alucard second place (1pt) - 17.43% Falcon second place (2pts) - 26.54% Falcon first place (1pt) - 35.56% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Alucard - 58.55% (25,120) Falcon - 62.10% (26,643) |
After a long run of predictable necessities, we were given our second surprise match in a row. This didn't have the aura of an L-Block match, but it was a surprise nonetheless.
Alucard, Falcon, and Kratos were all known commodities coming in, and because people were wise to LFF this year, Alucard was the clear and obvious favorite to finish in first place. Falcon and Diddy were guaranteed to steal each other's votes and prop Alucard up; we all knew that already. What we didn't know was who would finish in second place. Captain Falcon had been in two contests, and in both he got utterly embarrassed. Losing to Crono in a blowout will happen, but that 2007 result is so bad. In an all-Nintendo poll, this dude finished in third place behind Wario: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2872-division-3-round-1-banjo-falcon-fox-wario
Wario! Who actually likes Wario unironically?
So there was that with Falcon. It was very hard to make an honest case for him to win second place here, because just one year ago we saw him lose in a similar spot. Kratos had made one contest prior to this one, and this was the result: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2866-division-1-round-1-agent-47-kratos-a-midna-scorpion
Doesn't exactly fill you with determination to pick him, does it? That, and Fails of gets nominated for every contest and pisses down its leg in every contest. A ton of people thought Falcon and Diddy were collectively weak enough to not finish in second place while stealing enough votes from each other to allow Kratos to squirt by into second place.
Yes, people in 2008 had faith in Fails of finishing ahead of Nintendo. This is a real thing. It actually happened.
The overall consensus ended up being Alucard > Diddy Kong, but it was not a confident backing of Diddy at all. It's almost like he was the choice by default. If you check the guru, oracle, and overall prediction percentage of the time, there was not a lot of faith in the little guy winning second place here, but the logic in him being the favorite was sound. Fails of had never proven to be anything but garbage. Captain Falcon had never proven to be anything but garbage. Diddy Kong had BrawlFEAR, The Hierarchy™, and the given fact of Donkey Kong Country being more popular than F-Zero all on his side. Captain Falcon had been in Smash since 1999 and never amounted to much in contests, but Diddy making a hyped Brawl debut had to be worth a lot.... right?
When this match started, this was Captain Falcon:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDj40PJqcCs
When this poll started, Captain Falcon didn't just come out and legitimately end Diddy Kong's whole career -- Diddy got his ass kicked in this poll and hasn't made a contest since -- he was winning the entire poll outright. To this day a lot of people are confused how this happened, but the answer is simple. Rally spillover. Weird things happen after L-Block/Draven/Undertale/etc type matches. This was no exception, as both sides of the L-Block crowd backed Falcon with the board vote. This gave him a lead over Alucard for 15 minutes before things settled down to a simple Alucard > Falcon finish, and it stands to reason Falcon might have won this poll if it was a 1v1 match.
For those playing the home game, the thought of Alucard losing to Captain Falcon 1v1 in 2008, or frankly in any other contest after 2002, was preposterous. But it was very likely would have happened if this was a 1v1 contest and this match happened directly after a Ryu/L-Block 1v1 match. Can you see why I hate this format yet? It robs us of so much.
By the way, as one of the people who called this match, my logic was simple. Donkey Kong is a historic choke artist. Why would the less popular Diddy be any different, especially in the face of a character that Smash fans think of in much higher esteem? I know Smash fans really well; they hated Diddy Kong right from the jump and always had a healthy respect for Captain Falcon, plus Falcon has the cool factor. You can't say I didn't warn you, because I legitimately saw this coming. Us Smash fans are really, really picky like that.
Stats and Analysis[]
- Captain Falcon overperformed by +6.63%, the #6 most impressive performance of 2008
- Diddy Kong underperformed by -4.77%, the #17 most disappointing performance of 2008
Well, *this* was certainly an interesting little match.
From the beginning, this was a debate between two to three characters. Alucard and Diddy Kong were the probable finishers, just with the order between the two debated. While Diddy was thought to be stronger than the constantly deteriorating 'card straight up, he had a weight in Falcon bringing him down. There was also talk of Kratos Aurion sneaking in ahead of Diddy, and while that conclusion would come to be somewhat vindicated by the end of this match, it certainly wasn't in any way that would vindicate his supporters.
In the end, one part of the match played out to form - Alucard advanced easily. But on the other side of the spectrum was Diddy Kong - and he was getting his monkey ass smoked by Captain Falcon.
Captain Falcon? The same Falcon who has nothing to his name outside of SSB except F-Zero, of which I'm pretty sure only tranny and I have played and ONLY I like him from? Against the same Diddy who, aside from Brawl, has the monster hit DKC games to his name as well as a wealth of other AAA titles? Hell DIDDY KONG RACING is probably more popular than F-Zero here, so what happened?
Call it Brawl seniority or Diddy Kong simply taking after his elder simian's penchant for choking, but by the end of this match Falcon had a good argument for beating Alucard straight up. He didn't just beat Diddy, he SFFed him down to Kratos Aurion's level (and thankfully for him, everyone was so preoccupied with Diddy sucking they barely noticed his flop).
The pattern continued - if the only SSB game you had to your name was Brawl, you did horrifically. Suddenly Ike fans were really scared of a Blizzard entity waiting in the wings next match.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Let's thankfully move on to a non-joke match, shall we? Starting with what we saw out of these folks last time around...
Last Known Values
- Alucard - 21.09% (2007)
- Kratos A - 18.02% (2007)
- Diddy - new
- Falcon - 15.25% (2007)
This is one of the most unique setups we've ever witnessed, really. You've got Alucard, who has clearly taken a couple steps back since his 2003 glory days and is now only a little ways over the fodder line, by all indications. Then there's Kratos A, who was possibly hurt somewhat by sharing the GameCube with Midna; account for that and he's probably right there at the fodder line. And of course Falcon, who got triply held back by Fox/Wario/Banjo, and is probably right there are the fodder line otherwise (as he was in '06). And the newcomer is none other than Diddy, who by all accounts ought to be a little bit under DK in strength and... whoa, that'd leave him just a little over the fodder line as well!
What to do when all combatants are right next to each other in strength? Well you account for LFF of course! Diddy was planning to pack some newfound punch in '08 thanks to Brawl, but how much will that series be able to help him when three-time series vet Falcon is going to be right there to scoop up much of the support? On the other hand the Capn't has already proven he's near the bottom of the Nintendo food chain- could Diddy really be on a lower rung? The most likely result would seem to be that neither completely ruins the other, but both do enough damage to drop them to the bottom of this pack.
That leaves us with Alucard- fortunately, Ally's already been in a similar position, and he came through with flying colors! I'm referring of course to the last time we saw a R1 fourpack between seemingly equal opponents, where Alucard essentially tied Liquid Snake and both of them beat out Ness handily, even though he had come in with the advantage of being the only Nintendo character in the mix. Tonight there will be no other PSX-era challenger to limit his potential, so I'd be shocked to see Alucard finish anywhere but first. The bad news is, this forces me to do something I'd promised myself never to attempt again... I'm putting faith in Tales! Hate to, but Kratos Aurion is clearly the "cream" of the crop when it comes to that series, and with Diddy probably not being able to Ulti-blow-him-out even 1v1, the collateral damage from Captain Falcon ought to be just enough to allow KA to squeak by.
That makes plenty of sense... so why do I feel so awful about picking it? Don't know, but better turn those thoughts to numbers before I lose my nerve! Potted and stirred and:
- Alucard - 31.85%
- Kratos Aurion - 24.21%
- Diddy Kong - 23.79%
- Captain Falcon - 20.16%
I sure hope an outright Crew victory is part of The Plan- I could really use it at this point.
Ngamer Says: Alucard > Kratos Aurion
Next Day Review[]
So anyways I was thinking about that absolutely absurd start for Falcon, and wondering when we'd ever seen something like it before. And then it hit me- Soul Calibur/Kingdom Hearts! KH was a Square RPG during the height of Square's dominance on the site that had sold 10 million copies and dominated the FAQ listings most of the year- we were expecting it to win with about 65% of the vote. Yet the poll came up and, weird, SC was hanging in there... then a minute later and SC was somehow KILLING! Now the connection here is of course that SC/KH kicked off at the conclusion of StarCraft vs Halo, arguably the most heavily rallied matchup of all time to that point, and one that came down to the final minutes. Much like StarCraft and Halo fans not caring a bit about KH, why would the L-Blockers being rallied to hold back Ryu's powerful second night vote care about Alucard? They wouldn't, and between Falcon dominating that match pic, being a fan favorite in both SSB and Melee, and having a small meme of his own regarding his Falcon PAAAUNCH, now his crazy start makes alot more sense.
(Unfortunately there's another character with a weak ASV and a powerful second night vote that figures to be cut out at the knees by Block rallying- guy by the name of Crono. How gross is it that only WCC or Sandbag have any chance of causing a Block loss from here out?)