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Cb7-06

Results Edit

Round One

Poll3249

Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008

Stats and Analysis Edit

Poll 3249
Division 2
Match # 6
Match Date Tuesday, September 23rd, 2008
Oracle
Expectations
Bowser - 45.49%
Phoenix Wright - 22.80%
Geno - 17.07%
Deckard Cain - 14.64%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Bowser first place (2pts) - 72.76%
Bowser second place (1pt) - 15.49%
Phoenix second place (2pts) - 42.25%
Phoenix first place (1pt) - 10.83%
Advancing
Prediction
Bowser - 88.25% (37,862)
Phoenix - 53.08% (22,773)

After the prior day's more or less expected result - in placement, if not percentages - things had pretty much calmed down on Board 8. Facilitating this normalcy was, of all things, a Phoenix Wright match.

Phoenix is best known for being three things - firstly, arguably the most beloved character on Board 8. Secondly, for being the character that finally ended GFNW (and man, Gordon's looked impressive since then). And thirdly, he gave us one HELL of a show in taking down a washed-up, third tier icon in Bomberman. But hey, that's an icon nonetheless! With his jokey trends there was some chatter that Geno had a shot... but as good as Geno is in SMRPG, one character arguably stole the show even more than he and he was in the SAME MATCH. Meanwhile, Deckard Cain was yet another random piece of fodder that I'm told is from Diablo. And if you're a Blizzard character that isn't in the title of one of their games, then well...

Bowser dominated as expected, and the fact that he didn't fall flat on his face was a welcome relief for his fans that have had to cringe at every one of his matches ever since his near-upset of Solid Snake. Bowser certainly couldn't be written off against Luigi, especially considering how vulnerable Liquid had made him look, but theirs certainly appeared now to be a fight for survival than bragging rights. Phoenix actually held up quite well, and Geno ended up having to hold off a scare from Deckard. The only real surprise is how far Phoenix had come since 2007 - whether it was the flurry of his games or his upsets spreading his notoriety around a la Chrono Trigger, he was less joke and more natural, legitimate trends.

Yes, that's right - Phoenix Wright was looking LEGIT this year. This contest making no sense was confirmed tenfold.

Match Trends Edit

Graph3249

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis Edit

Match Prediction Edit

Last Known Values

  • Bowser - 26.32% (2007)
  • Phoenix - 17.64% (2007)
  • Geno - 15.17% (2007)
  • Deckard - new

Bowser's number in the first round was a total crapshoot, what with Mewtwo and Toad doing heaven knows what with the Nintendo support. This number is based on his R2 showing, and it's probably pretty accurate- the guy has still got some legitimate strength, and his loss was more a matter of Auron and Ryu being perfect characters for this 4-way format. I'd expect him to perform at around that 26 level tonight, or perhaps even a little higher because...

Phoenix Wright is a character that I don't think holds up very well against Nintendo's upper tier. We've seen him cave badly in the face of Mario, and Edgeworth got blown away worse than we expected by Link, so although Bowser's not nearly at the same level of SFF-ability, I'm still not expecting PW to look his best here. And then poor Geno got about the worst placement possible- as someone who just finished up a Virtual Console playthrough of Mario RPG, I can safely say that despite how cool Geno was throughout, Bowser consistently stole the show in that party. I DO feel he was held back somewhat by Squall and Aeris last time around (no way would I pick Akuma to beat him that badly 1v1), and sadly he probably won't have much chance to improve on that 15 here in '08.

Then there's Deckard who... nay, sorry, just can't muster up any excitement about his upset abilities. To be a successful "joke" character in this format you have to make it very clear that you LOOK like a joke to the casual voter, IMO. L-Block just looks ridiculous to everyone, and that grabs people's attention and swings votes his way, whereas Cain just looks like any other old man from an RPG, so I can't see him picking up many votes outside of the DII fanbase. That being said, with the rest of this group swinging so heavily Nintendo, he SHOULD have an opportunity to at least look somewhat decent. And by that I mean... better than Kerrigan. Maybe.

Let's turn those thoughts into numbers, turn up the heat for 90 minutes, and we come out of the pot with...

  • Bowser - 43.73%
  • Phoenix Wright - 23.44%
  • Geno - 17.68%
  • Deckard Cain - 15.51%

I don't like it, I love it!

Ngamer Says: Bowser > Phoenix

Next Day Review Edit

After two fairly standard results in a row, you just know that the bracket must have another surprise in store soon.

External Links Edit

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2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)

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