Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 2007-2009 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 30 |
| Match Date | Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Mario Galaxy - 36.09% Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 25.39% Call of Duty 4 - 25.37% Team Fortress 2 - 13.27% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
CoD4 first place (2pts) - 58.05% CoD4 second place (1pt) - 22.49% Galaxy second place (2pts) - 38.98% Galaxy first place (1pt) - 25.19% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Call of Duty 4 - 80.54% (30,844) Super Mario Galaxy - 64.17% (24,575) |
The vastly overwhelming consensus for this match is even with Pokemon in the poll, Galaxy > Call of Duty 4 should have been a gimme match regardless of how strong most of us figured CoD4 would be. Galaxy was supposed to be a monster -- the one game universally beloved on the Wii despite everyone realizing how terrible the Wii is.
Then it comes out and threatens Starcraft's position as biggest bomb of the contest. Call of Duty 4 rocked Mario's face, and essentially guaranteed a Brawl > Galaxy result in round 2 given how well Brawl did in its poll a day prior to this. Even if you want to take the route of Pokemon LFFing Galaxy to a second place finish here, this still boded terrible for Galaxy. If a second-rate Pokemon title could leech Mario this badly, think what a Smash Brothers game would do. There was no amount of explaining that could brush off how badly Galaxy did here, and it would get waaaaaaaaaay worse in round 2.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Gah, no idea what to think about this one! Galaxy wasn't hyped through the roof like nearly every other AAA title this generation, but it had fantastic reviews and everyone who has played it has loved it; what more could you ask for? Mario has looked solid all season (aside from crying Baby Mario) and so the one thing I have confidence in is Galaxy cruising to an easy victory despite there being another Nintendo option.
Beyond that, you could make a case for just about anything. On the one hand Pokemon has been sensational all Spring, even when put up against Zelda- and on the same hand shooters have been downright dreadful. Plus there are TWO shooter options in the poll, and the lesser one has the benefit of the full Valve support that pushed HL2 to victory just two day back, so you know it's not going to crumble completely. Also if you go back about a year or so the two biggest online shooters on the PC side were CoD4 and TF2, and thanks to the Orange Box TF2 isn't exactly an unknown on the 360 either.
Jeez, taking all that into account, why would anyone bet against D/P? Well because on the other hand recent polls have shown that people will jump ship on modern Nintendo the first time a decent option comes around, and the multiplatform CoD4 is certainly that (or at least it was back at the tail end of 2007). And also, modern Pokemon is a huge question mark- do people just vote Pikachu and Mewtwo and R/B/Y out of SFF-proof nostalgia, and if so will they all jump aboard the Mario bandwagon once that factor is taken away? I say no, that D/P is still going to be a very solid, very respectable block of support tonight, and that furthermore TF2 is going to damage CoD more than most are giving it credit for.
...even so, I can't pull the trigger on this upset. Call of Duty was just too good in that GotY to be ignored, regardless of the disdain that voters have been showing for FPSs here in '09. And being the only PS3 option and major 360 option should still be enough to top Pokemon-fever. BARELY.
- Super Mario Galaxy - 37.27%
- Call of Duty 4 - 23.09%
- Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 23.05%
- Team Fortress 2 - 16.59%
And now time to check the poll results and be stunned yet again!
Next Day Review[]
Ugh, haven't been this disgusted by a result since Prime. Why did the best games of the last two Nintendo generations have to receive such unfortunate draws? (Yes, I realize that the draws weren't actually that bad and that in reality both Prime and Galaxy must be way weaker than I expected, but allow me to continue deluding myself, please.) I guess you could make a case for Galaxy still being decent, though, if you consider how bad the other Pokemon entries were able to make even Zelda and Final Fantasy games look. And for the extremely resilient Valve fanbase to allow their game to slip to a mere 12%, the other options must have all been packing a serious punch. Of course that would put CoD4 right up there in the league with Brawl and MGS4... but heck, I'll allow it if that's the only way I'm able to chalk this up as a moral victory for SMG! Unfortunate that Brawl's going to pound it no matter how much spin I try to put on this result, though.