Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 1995-1997 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 15 |
| Match Date | Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Mario 64 - 42.79% Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 24.18% Resident Evil - 19.83% Kirby Super Star - 13.41% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Mario 64 first place (2pts) - 57.59% Mario 64 second place (1pt) - 31.04% SotN second place (2pts) - 22.53% SotN first place (1pt) - 18.14% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Super Mario 64 - 88.63% (33,942) Symphony of the Night - 40.67% (15,575) |
The obvious first, of course. Mario 64 dominated this match, and clearly SFFd the hell out of Kirby. I even had Kirby getting second place in this match initially (based on Kirby's character performance), but went with Resident Evil thinking it was stronger than SOTN. Then I went with SOTN out of pure fanboyism and prayed it could hold on and win. I did not think SOTN was a clear-cut favorite for second place here, and literally only picked it because I love it. My only reasoning.
As a side note, this match proved once and for all Kirby is not popular because of his games. When you're SFFd this badly by Mario, but you the character go out and beat Sonic, your appeal comes from character design and Smash Brothers.
With that out of the way, we had an actual match here. Like I said before, I felt Resident Evil was a favorite for second place here. MGS clearly SFFd it in 2004, so it had a wild card value going into all this. SOTN, awesome as it is, has gotten no younger. I try not to get my fanboyism get in the way of my analysis, but I was very happy when SOTN jumped on Resident Evil early and went on to easily win the match. Sure SOTN "lost" the day vote and bled percentage to RE, but the match was never in question. RE was deserving, but I cannot deny how happy I am SOTN won this. I love that game to death, and there aren't many match results this contest I was happier about than this one. If you haven't played SOTN yet, you really should. It's arguably the best 2D game ever made.
As for what this match tells us, Kirby's games are not only weak, but prone to SFF by Mario. Mario 64 is a beast, but we didn't yet know it was a potential slayer of Chrono Trigger. Resident Evil was in fact SFFd in 2004 -- not to a gigantic degree, but I wouldn't go around calling it a weak game. Both RE and RE2 performed respectably in their first round losses. And as for good ol' SOTN, it's still got some left in the tank! :D
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Now then, tonight isn't exactly the best setup of the season, but there should still be a few interesting things to watch out for. Even with a possible boost from RE5 I never gave RE much of a chance against SotN in this one, but now that I think about it some more, I guess it would at least make more sense than that absurd Jill > Ocelot result from last year. And if RE2 could manage 23% against decent competition, maybe 1 does a better job of drawing the series vote (as DKC and Sonic seemed to do), and then perhaps... but no, Alucard has shown that SotN fans are too dedicated to lose a close match to anything not named MGS, and with THAT picture I just can't see RE overcoming this obstacle.
As for Mario 64, what the heck is all this "disappointment" talk? It "only" managed 13th on the Top 100, and that was somehow a giant slap in the face- excuse me, do you realize how much top tier Mario competition it was facing in that situation? Now the other three options here aren't scrubs, but I'd be willing to bet that M64 makes them look like it. We've seen how getting Mario's face in your pic has apparently done wonders for SMK and MK64 and Mario RPG, so imagine what it will do for an ACTUAL Mario game! As for Kirby, the poor little guy draws the worst possible opponent here (aside from perhaps SMW). But, that's Meta Knight in the picture- surely that assures a TOP-TIER performance tonight, right? Okay so probably not, but even so I'd be surprised if the game gets SFF-crushed DKC2 style, as Kirby fans seem like a fairly dedicated bunch.
Turning those thoughts to numbers results in
Super Mario 64 - 43.43% Castlevania: Symphony of the Night - 25.26% Resident Evil - 21.03% Kirby Super Star - 10.28%
Prediction on the prediction: this looks like a very bad pick in the early going of the match thanks to SotN getting a good start and then rocking the latenight vote, but come sunrise Mario and Kirby will combine to cut breathtakingly large chunks off of that percentage in order to bring it down to that 25 area.
Next Day Review[]
Three cheers for Mario 64! "Vastly overrated" my left eye- it goes out and tops all of our predictions without batting an eye, and that's even with Kirby holding up better than expected. Alright alright, so no one is THAT surprised about it being able to lay the smack down on lower tier titles like these three, but even so, this is the kind of very impressive performance that has me really wishing we'd have been able to see Mario 64 v Chrono Trigger in a fair matchup this season. What a shame that Yoshi's Island is going to be there to goof things up next time, and Goldeneye in the round after that. Although actually, if CT has lost a step (like FF6 apparently has), and then with FF7 punching it in the gut all day... but nah, I get ahead of myself. Regardless, as least this bracket it going to bless us with GE vs Mario 64 as good as straight up, so we do have SB to thank for that.