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Cb7-21

Results[]

Round One

Poll3264

Wednesday, October 8th, 2008

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 3264
Division 6
Match # 21
Match Date Wednesday, October 8th, 2008
Oracle
Expectations
Sora - 38.44%
Fox McCloud - 33.84%
Chris Redfield - 17.70%
Tim - 9.91%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Sora first place (2pts) - 36.52%
Sora second place (1pt) - 43.54%
Fox second place (2pts) - 35.74%
Fox first place (1pt) - 43.13%
Advancing
Prediction
Sora - 80.06% (34,348)
Fox - 78.87% (33,838)

Pre-contest, there was a lot of discussion about BrawlFEAR pushing Fox to first place here. Before this match, Fox had been in 6 matches prior, and in every single one other than the Cloud match, he shared the poll with at least one other Nintendo character. With Fox finally being allowed to be his own man, some thought that maybe he could be a breakout star. As the contest played out however, it became clear that Brawl wasn't going to have the ludicrous effect on lesser Nintendo characters that some were expecting, and that made the overwhelming Sora > Fox consensus rest easy at night. Heck by match time, people were more worried about Tim making a joke run due to Braid than anything else.

Come the actual match, after a small early push by Fox, it was a super boring and predictable 40-30-20-10 type of affair. There was no upset, no big swings, and nothing surprising at all unless you count Chris Redfield doing better than he did last year: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2869-division-2-round-1-auron-chris-ph-shadow

But again, third place in a fourway poll where nothing interesting happens is fairly ho-hum. It's not like he was ever going to get close to Fox for second or anything.

As for those checking this page and wondering why Tim got no joke love, it's because Tim is an asshole. Braid is a wonderful, wonderful video game that I recommend to anyone reading this. I even wrote a guide for it!

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/ps3/969696-braid/faqs/61044

But Tim? Yeah, not a good guy at all. He got what he deserved in this match.

Stats and Analysis[]

When this match was set up in the bracket, there was a fair bit of speculation as to whether Fox would be able to pull off the upset over Sora here, thanks partially to a gigantic Brawl influx and partially due to him being hidden behind SFF for pretty much his entire contest career. Needless to say, by the time this match actually rolled around more people were wondering if Tim could capitalize on some kind of joke vote to upset Chris Redfield (who had lost to Pyramid Head last year) than any Fox > Sora buzz.

The real point of interest in this match would end up being neither scenario - instead, whether it be due to him standing out like a madman in the picture (1 red team badass vs 3 blue team cutesys), kooky Survival Horror rSFF, or just the strange commodity we would come to coin REFAQs, Chris had the match of his life this day. Fox would end up closer to Chris than he would to SORA, and during the night Chris would shred him repeatedly on scores of updates. I suppose you could say Fox did okay during his first true non-SFF outing in forever, but Chris made it look much, much worse than it could have. He ended up further from Sora than most expected as well, but most observant users expected that by this point.

The last thing of note here would be Tim's performance, and he made a strong case for being the flat-out weakest character of the contest here. Clearly I have to try out Braid now, as its indie cred is through the ****ing roof after this showing !!

Match Trends[]

Graph3264

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]

Match Prediction[]

Who's ready to see another awesome showing from a member of Team Fox? Me! And my bracket!

Last Known Values

  • Sora - 25.52% (2007)
  • Fox - 23.93% (2007)
  • Chris - 15.14% (2007)
  • Tim - new

I picked against the Guru cookie cutter in a total of 16 of this year's 63 matches- a decent number of upsets, at least by my standards, and now the one I felt least comfortable with has arrived: Fox > Sora. I've always had a strong dislike for ol' clown shoes and Fox has become a favorite of mine thanks to his considerable potential that always gets hidden behind SFF, so when I saw a chance for him to finally perform at peak strength my gut reaction was to jump at it and take Fox for the win (as I did in my Initial Impressions topic). I took plenty of heat for that decision, which only made me more stubborn and forced me to stick with the silly pick right on through lockdown. But you know what, looking at it now, I'm glad I did! Yes Brawl newcomers have disappointed for the most part, but Fox is a mainstay of the series, Star Fox 64 has done great on the Virtual Console this year, and if being the only Melee/Nintendo option allowed Falco to snatch up that many votes against a guy with legit NN-smashing potential like Vincent, I see no reason why Fox couldn't knocked out someone a good deal lower on the Square totem pole.

Plus, check out this picture! Not only does Fox dominate everyone and get another super-cool pose like R1 last time, Sora gets stuck with his back to the fans, puffing away on that Virginia Slim! For those who say it won't matter, have you forgotten that the victim of (arguably) the biggest pic factor underperformance in history was... Sora himself? Now some others are saying that Chris will do well with this pic, but again I'm not buying it. Sure it's an improvement on that goofy look from last year, but in my experience realistic-style pictures fail to draw the eye away from bright colorful foxes with their arms crossed in a no-nonsense expressions nearly 87% of the time. And Tim, well... he DOES look pretty good, but this is one of those cases where he'd probably have performed better if he looked more like a joke- as vocal as the Braid fanbase is, small numbers like that can only take you so far.

In summary, the KH ASV figures to be as deadly as always, but if there's one thing that can stand up to it (well, aside from Halo) it would have to be SSB Melee. I think Fox will be able to get a large enough lead overnight and during the school that he'll be able to limit the afternoon damage and take this one home with a close finish decided by the second night vote. Whooo Fox!

  • Fox McCloud - 33.94%
  • Sora - 33.83%
  • Chris Redfield - 21.01%
  • Tim - 11.22%

Feelin' confident!

Ngamer Says: Fox > Sora

Next Day Review[]

Hmm... well my upset didn't end up working out, but at least Fox validated himself as a legit Nintendo mid-carder with this performance. This should end any debate about him finishing behind the Donkey Kong's of the world, and it's cool that in only a couple weeks we'll be able to see how he stacks up against that higher tier that Yoshi represents. Actually this was a dang good showing for him- he put up a very strong fight during the ASV and it was actually his best time during the whole poll, which is incredible considering how easily KH has owned that timeframe ever since 2005. If only he hadn't fallen apart so badly overnight, we could have had a real match on our hands here. Darn those Europeans!

External Links[]

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2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)

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