Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 2001-2003 Semi Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 44 |
| Match Date | Wednesday, May 20th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 37.48% Diablo II: Lord of Destruction - 21.66% Zelda: The Wind Waker - 20.54% Halo: Combat Evolved - 20.44% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Melee first place (4pts) - 28.55% Melee second place (2pts) - 39.08% Diablo II second place (4pts) - 6.24% Diablo II first place (2pts) - 9.30% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 67.63% (25,900) Diablo II - 15.54% (5,951) |
Melee winning this match was a given, but this was the second match in a row where it seemed a bit off. This was an impressive enough first place and an easy win, but it failed to deliver that SFF killer punch to Wind Waker we all expected. As hard as it is to accept, Melee just isn't that killer instinct dominant game we all want it to be. Remember, 2004 didn't feature dominant performances either. Either Wind Waker isn't all that bad, or Melee isn't that good. Good, but not great. If by some miracle we ever saw Melee vs Brawl 1v1, Brawl could be considered a favorite going in. Compare Melee's eye test this contest to Brawl's. It isn't close.
The true match here were the other three games, though it wasn't really a match. Diablo 2 won second place very easily, and silenced all the critics thinking the first round win was a fluke. Only 15.54% of people had Diablo 2 getting to the third round of this contest, mainly because Halo is the most overbracketed series we have.
Once again, everyone had faith in Halo. And like always, Halo bombed. And this wasn't a simple choking; it scored last place against an SFFd Wind Waker, and it was clear Halo would get last place within a couple hours. Halo is famous for choking in contests, but this ranks up there with the all-time best.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
I'm expecting some fireworks from tonight's matchup! Sure it's going to be kind of pointless considering how weak all these options for 2nd place are (well I actually think Wind Waker has respectable strength, just not when Melee's hanging around), but I could still see this resulting in a few lead changes and comebacks. First things first: Melee's going to go to town on these chumps. Maybe that roster screenshot for a match pic is what's raising my confidence, but for whatever reason I have this hunch that SSB comes out of this one looking like a champ, despite the fact that modern Nintendo hasn't impressed when split between two options.
Even if my hunch is way off though, it's still a lock for first, meaning the real question is who goes home with the silver. You could make a good case for Halo, it seems to me... sure KotOR and D2 must have some overlap, but its still mainly seen as an Xbox game and as HM correctly pointed out a fanbase split might be devastating given that console's low ownership numbers. Unfortunately there's also a number of things working against Halo: Melee was the more definitive multiplayer experience of the 128 bit generation (and as GE vs MK64 showed us, that could be crucial), DII's the sole RPG choice this time around, DII will once again be allowed to dominate overnight (considering Europe and Asia's low opinion of post-N64 Nintendo, and the Xbox in general), and there's not going to be any massive ASV comeback like last time, not with Day Vote titans like SSB and Zelda there to soak up the votes.
With all those factors working against Halo I was all set to go against my bracket and back DII in this one. And then StarCraft happened. I realize what a tough sell a PC-only RTS must be on an RPG-crazy site like this, but even so SC was SO far back of its '04 strength and did so very little beyond those first three hours that I had no choice but to lose a good deal of respect for the Blizzard base. Sure, they're not going to allow Diablo to lose a close match, but now I have doubts about them being able to keep it tight enough for that rally potential to matter. Guess I've got to side with Halo, though I do so with zero confidence.
Speaking of zero confidence, I also think it's a mistake to count Zelda out entirely! I mean, even Majora managed 22% despite having to deal with a 3 way Nintendo split- it just seems extremely difficult to keep a Zelda option below 20%, regardless of the competition. If Melee really kicks it into gear as so many other Mario titles have done lately that might be all it takes to advance. But, ehhh, I'll play it safe and stick with Halo.
(...oh jeez, did I just use "safe" and "Halo" in the same sentence? all of a sudden I've got a huge sinking feeling regarding this pick!)
- Super Smash Bros. Melee - 37.95%
- Halo: Combat Evolved - 21.80%
- Diablo II: Lord of Destruction - 20.87%
- The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker - 19.38%
Ermm.... okay?
Next Day Review[]
Somehow as soon as I locked in my pick for Halo last night I knew I'd made a huge mistake, but it was one of those you don't realize until it's too late to update your Oracle. And whoops, was my late hunch ever correct! Getting punished the entire overnight, not getting a sniff of an ASV comeback, only managing 42% directly on Diablo, and losing cleanly to a massively SFFed Wind Waker, all in a matchup where you were the only Xbox option and only FPS choice... it doesn't get much more embarrassing than that. I guess Halo's saving grace is the "128-bit multiplayer SFF" that I mentioned in my preview, and there's probably some validity to that (the ASV sure made me think so), but still, someone remind me to pick against Master Chief 100% of the time in a couple months! Other points: nice to see Wind Waker sort of redeem itself by hanging at 20%, DII looks good but I'd have to imagine SC could have done almost as well in this situation, and gosh is Melee ever beastly. Wonder how well it holds up to Ocarina.