Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 2001-2003 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 24 |
| Match Date | Thursday, April 30th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 45.55% Zelda: The Wind Waker - 31.43% Disgaea: Hour of Darkness - 11.80% Fire Emblem - 11.25% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
SSBM first place (2pts) - 76.43% SSBM second place (1pt) - 18.10% Zelda:WW second place (2pts) - 61.30% Zelda:WW first place (1pt) - 12.94% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Super Smash Bros. Melee - 94.53% (36,201) Zelda: Wind Waker - 74.24% (28,431) |
It's always nice following a long writeup with something really short, but this match doesn't require anything extensive. It was one of the most obvious results we could imagine.
Melee > Wind Waker was a mortal lock, though some people correctly cited this match as the point where we could spot Melee being in trouble. Perhaps expecting Melee to completely smash Wind Waker with SFF was unfair, but Wind Waker did a lot better than it should have, avoided the doubling and bled Melee's percentage in the latter stages of the match. If Wind Waker could do this, Melee was in a world of hurt when Ocarina came along.
Fire Emblem was also put into the absolute worst situation ever. It's become very respected as a series, but getting placed into a match against a Zelda and the very game that put it on the map (Melee) was an impossible mountain. Not surprisingly, it got SFFd to holy hell twice over and allowed a Disgaea-related contest entrant to not be in last place for the first time ever. Now if we could just figure out a way to get Disgaea into first or second place, all would be well! :D
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Wind Waker's in kind of a weird position between MM underperforming and LA looking like a beast, but between the two I'd wager it's more of an MM. Plus the results from Prime and StarCraft the last few days don't exactly speak favorably of its '04 run... Now, if voters are actually going to be turning anti-Nintendo in this last quarter of the bracket as everyone seems to be shouting about, you'd have to imagine that Melee and Brawl would be the prime targets for the backlash. BUT, I don't exactly buy that idea for one, and for two there's really no way to anti-vote Nintendo in this poll anyways, so SSB's sure to still look like a monster.
The only real point of interest to me in this one is Disgaea. Clearly this game has an incredibly dedicated fanbase, and clearly this is the perfect setup for the game (only non-Nintendo choice, only PS2 option, and FE sure to be SFF-slammed below it), and you'd have to imagine the fans love the game itself more than Laharl, right? Yet despite Laharl pulling down a consistent 17% in his last two R1s it looks like most people are only taking Disgaea for 10% or so. I've got to think the game can look a little bit more respectable.
And... that's about all I have to say! Numbers =
- Super Smash Bros. Melee - 47.49%
- Zelda: Wind Waker - 27.75%
- Disgaea: Hour of Darkness - 13.25%
- Fire Emblem - 11.52%
Go Melee! ...sort of!
Next Day Review[]
Well, what can you say about this result? Strong showing from Melee, including a fantastic ASV that pushed it up to over 65% directly on Wind Waker, but... I don't think anyone was all THAT surprised to see it happen. FE had trouble as expected, and so pretty much the only thing to note is that I was correct in suspecting a STF-boosted good showing from Disgaea. (As usual though I wish I'd had more confidence in my hunch and boosted its number in my Oracle.) Anyways, a final score like this might mean good things for next round: Melee will clearly be the runaway winner, but with Halo and Diablo apparently being as weak as KotOR, it seems very possible that a weakened Wind Waker will be right in the mix with them for 2nd place. Could be the best fatal threeway of the round!