Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 1972-1988 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 1 |
| Match Date | Tuesday, April 7th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Tetris - 42.27% Punch-Out - 22.62% Donkey Kong - 22.35% Space Invaders - 12.79% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Tetris first place (2pts) - 54.93% Tetris second place (1pt) - 32.82% DK second place (2pts) - 33.69% DK first place (1pt) - 28.19% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Tetris - 87.75% (33,605) DK - 61.88% (23,698) |
The contest started with a heavily debated match between Donkey Kong and Punch-Out, and we quickly learned SFF or LFF or whatever FF you want to pin on four-ways would not be as big an issue as initially predicted.
Tetris was obviously going to murder this match, and Space Invaders was obviously going to get destroyed -- old-school SFF and just generally being weak can do that -- so the true fight here was between Donkey Kong and Punch-Out. Though there was a pretty even split here, the basic idea revolved around LFF. Either Donkey Kong would get LFFd by Tetris and be stronger than Punch-Out anyway, or Punch-Out would stick out like a sore thumb and score second place due to... sticking out like a sore thumb. It's a debate you can repeat for nearly any four-way match, but it was meaningful here. DK and Tetris are probably more "Nintendo" than Punch-Out, so it was reasonable to think Punch-Out could benefit from not only this, but hype from the Wii version of Punch-Out artificially inflating the original's strength.
In the beginning, this poll was very close and unpredictable. DK and Punch-Out fought a very close duel in the early parts of the poll, but DK eventually seized a small portion of control and built a 100 vote lead once the madness of the first hour ended. DK then pulled a typical "slowly build a lead as the other game stalls you a bunch" thing overnight, before losing 300 votes in something like 3 updates once the morning vote hit.
This of course started all the "DK is a choker, knew this was going to happen" stuff, so naturally Donkey Kong went on to easily win a match when everyone expected him to lose. That's just how DK rolls. He lost his whole lead when the morning vote began, then started exploding. The only reason people continued paying attention beyond DK's second wind is because everyone always expects DK to choke a close match away, but nope. Not this time. Donkey Kong of all games turned a close match into a fairly easy 53-47 win. Close, but not a nailbiter.
Now despite DK winning this match, I truly do think Donkey Kong is more prone to old school Nintendo SFF than Punch-Out at the hands of something like Tetris. The problem here is Punch-Out is plain weak. I doubt this result changes if you held it even right now, after the release of the most recent Punch-Out. Not even a sports game (which is basically what Punch-Out is) can take full advantage of the DK Chokes-A-Lot Factor.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Alright, five years later and it's finally time for another Game Contest, whoo hoo! Wait, what's this... 4ways? Ugh. And divided by eras? UGH. Oh well, it should still be enjoyable, and at least I have a spot on the Crew so I can keep doing my... huh? I was fired from the Crew, and no one even bothered to tell me?! That's the last straw!
Now I'll have no choice but to rebel all season and beat the other 6 Crewmembers senseless the whole while! Starting with Match One:
Hmm, the season hasn't even kicked off and already I find that I have to disagree with my fellow Crewmates. While it's true that DK is a monster choke artist both as a character and a game, and I'll agree that the presence of a fellow iconic heavyweight like Tetris isn't going to be doing it any favors, I'm still not sold on Punch-Out being the game to knock it off. Little Mac only managed 16% of the vote two years ago in that match with Dante/Ammy/Matt, and was equally bad back in 2002. But surely the game should be a decent bit stronger than the character, right? I thought so as well, until I discovered this frightening little piece of evidence:
Which forgotten Super Nintendo title would you most like to see re-made or given a sequel today?
- ActRaiser 8.3% 5333
- EVO: The Search For Eden 8.48% 5451
- Illusion Of Gaia 14.64% 9406
- Secret of Evermore 11.8% 7582
- Shadowrun 8.21% 5277
- Soul Blazer 4.85% 3120
- Super Punch-Out!! 20.26% 13021
- Uniracers 3.12% 2007
- Zombies Ate My Neighbors 20.34% 13073
- TOTAL VOTES 64270
Okay, so this is the sequel technically but we're still talking the same fanbase. A fanbase so small it could only produce 20% of the vote against competition this awful, and didn't even manage a win over ZAMN? Come on now! Tetris is going to eat this poll alive, Space Invaders should have the name recognition to manage something like 12-13 percent, and I don't see Punch Out improving to the 26%+ that it's probably going to need if it wants to advance here.
And thats why my final preds are...
- Tetris - 39.35%
- Donkey Kong - 24.56%
- Mike Tyson's Punch-Out!! - 24.25%
- Space Invaders - 11.84%
Yes sir, I sense my '09 Crew career getting off to a smashing start!
Next Day Review[]
Oh my! Only one match into the Contest and already all six Crewmembers have tossed away their perfect brackets while I skate past in style. But before I go sounding TOO cocky here, I've got to be honest... when I went to bed at 3am last night I had 0% confidence in my DK pick. Punch-Out had pulled into a commanding 300 vote lead and I thought "here we go again- Donkey Kong pulled a lead with the late night old schoolers, but just like Duck Hunt before it PO is the better-loved title that's going to kill once the sun rises." What I didn't take into account is how (apparently) PO must have sold something like 17 total copies across Europe, because whoa did they ever bury it! Thanks Euroes, hopefully you guys will be bailing me out a few more times before this Contest is out.
External Links[]
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