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Cb7-03

Results Edit

Round One

Poll3246

Saturday, September 20th, 2008

Stats and Analysis Edit

Poll 3246
Division 1
Match # 3
Match Date Saturday, September 20th, 2008
Oracle


Expectations

Marth - 28.56%
Niko Bellic - 25.41%
Kefka - 24.28%
Duke Nukem - 21.84%
GameFAQs


Expectations

Marth first place (2pts) - 19.83%
Marth second place (1pt) - 29.09%
Duke second place (2pts) - 21.04%
Duke first place (1pt) - 30.68%
Advancing
Prediction
Marth - 48.92% (20,988)
Duke - 51.72% (22,189)

Now, there are some that will disagree with me and assert that THIS was the most debated match of Round 1 (to those people I say you clearly haven't gotten your daily dosage of GameZACKS today). And while it's true that it was a doozy, most felt it was really only for second rather than first place. Marth was BrawlFEAR after all, and certainly more proven even in his loss to DK than these three chumps. But then again, Niko was untested - even though untested GTA is never a good sign - and Kefka always has his fair share of supporters each match. Who knows, anything could happen, right?

And so it did - while very few took the pick, and even though the writing was on the wall after what happened last year with Duke and Gordon Freeman, Duke Nukem shocked the world by scoring the second upset of his career. And while he would eventually go on to take an easy second place to Marth, overnight he actually took the lead from him. Remember, this is the same guy that we put on a milk box as a 16 seed to Cloud, who hasn't had a new game in FOREVER (you're gonna get a lot of these terrible references with these writeups, just warning you now). Meanwhile, Kefka, with even more levels of fail in his picture than usual, ended up in dead last even to a pretty big disappointment in Niko. Yeah, you didn't exactly need to be much to beat these two chumps, but let's at least give credit where credit is due, right?

And at any rate, Duke looked like a heavy favorite to advance next round now as well. Lucario, the board favorite, was going to have to pull some serious magic to keep himself in contention to advance next round.

Interesting FactsEdit

  • With 7.98%, this match marked the smallest gap between 1st and 4th place of any four-way contest match.
  • Out of the 24 possible permutations for the characters' order, 16 occur at some point during the match (assuming ties can count either way.)

Match Trends Edit

Graph3246

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis Edit

Match Prediction Edit

This four pack is just a mess no matter which way you look at it. Let's try to make at least some sense of this probable disaster by reviewing some base stats.

Last Known Values

  • Marth - 17.12% (2007)
  • Kefka - 19.07% (2007)
  • Duke - 20.87% (2007)
  • Niko - unknown

Poor Marth got the short end of the stick- he got stuck in a match with Donkey Kong, and those two hurt each other pretty badly while allowing Kratos to scamper off to an undeserved blowout. I give Marth the benefit of the doubt in this pack because he at least showed us something- after trailing big early, he made a huge SSB-fueled after school comeback and beat DK outright for a few hours. Yeah it was just DK, but even so, I wouldn't pick anyone else in this group to be able to do the same.

Kefka's 19 is probably just about accurate. After a great start he had one of the worst collapses ever against Marcus Fenix to throw that match away with the ASV. But, we know he's going to do well in the early going, we know Square has been looking great so far this year, and does Niko really have the kind of mini-Master Chief ASV potential that Marcus showed us?

Speaking of Niko, he's of course a first-timer without a Contest history, so let's assign him the 16.25% that Vercetti earned last year in R1. Probably Tommy got casual-SFFed somewhat by MC and deserves higher, but on the other hand, why would anyone believe Niko is even in Tommy's league, SFFed or not? I remember when GTA3 became the big thing years back and shot to the top of the FAQ charts. Then VC was launched, and it was almost always the #1 FAQ page on the site for a year and a half. Then SA came out, exact same thing. GTA4 did the same... for a couple months, but look where it sits now. 26th place. Scroll a little further down the list and... there's GTA:SA, in 33rd. It's September 2008, and yet there are nearly as many people playing and needing help with the GTA game that launched in 2004 as there are for the one from earlier this year. Sorry, but if that isn't the definition of a lack of staying power I don't know what is!

And then there's Duke. I've got to admit that with the rest of this group so up in the air, I gave serious thought to picking him for second if he was going to get his Duke Milk'em picture. As is though, he pulled down a value of around 21 in that opening match, which is probably about accurate. But then he completely collapsed as soon as decent competition arrived in R2. The rest of this group isn't exactly "decent", but they're at least a step up from what he saw in '07, so I can't see him picking up those "meh at least I recognize this guy" votes he used back then.

In summary, Duke seems like a reliable choice for around 20% but not much more, Marth seems a reliable choice to ride the SSB ASV to around 30, Kefka seems reliable to hang with Marth or lead outright early before collapsing back to the mid 20s during the Day, and Niko... is totally unreliable, and could do anything from jobbing horribly into the teens to giving Marth a serious run. But when I throw my best guesstimates into the pot, here's what I come up with for these guys:

  • Marth - 32.74%
  • Kefka - 24.18%
  • Niko Bellic - 22.08%
  • Duke Nukem - 21.00%

I don't like it, but with Niko involved I probably wouldn't like anything!

Ngamer Says: Marth > Kefka

Next Day Review Edit

Haha! Well after that 0/2 start I was pretty much sure we'd be moving to 0/3, given how nutzo that last 4 pack was. And for the first time all Contest I was right! The good news is, now we're moving on to one of the 11 R1 matches that I did go ahead and call a lock in my initial bracket analysis. Does that really mean anything though, with how badly these results have been making us all (I mean Guru, Oracle, BOP, AND Crew) look like fools?

External Links Edit

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2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)

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