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Bge09-32

Results[]

Round One

Poll3477

Friday, May 8th, 2009

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 3477
Division 2007-2009
Match # 32
Match Date Friday, May 8th, 2009
Oracle
Expectations
Fallout 3 - 35.78%
Halo 3 - 27.69%
Left 4 Dead - 18.67%
Mass Effect - 17.88%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Fallout 3 first place (2pts) - 37.81%
Fallout 3 second place (1pt) - 33.07%
Halo 3 second place (2pts) - 26.07%
Halo 3 first place (1pt) - 49.84%
Advancing
Prediction
Fallout 3 - 70.88% (27,144)
Halo 3 - 75.91% (29,070)

Not only was Fallout 3 > Halo 3 the consensus, but it was a near-lock by the time the match actually came up, and it gave us one of the most boring matches of all time. Which isn't all bad. Nice to see the first round end on a boring note and give people more time for first round overviews, since the stats topic guys make some awesome first round overviews. I wish I could be bothered talking about this match, but I can't. The results were locked within 2 seconds and stayed in a perfect staircase shape for a full 24 hours.

Match Trends[]

Graph3477

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]

Match Prediction[]

I'm not sure what SB was thinking with a grouping like this- if you would take any two of these games and place them anywhere else in the bracket I would comment at length about how they were sure to hurt each other. So instead he heaps them all into a single pile! I guess that, in theory, if everyone is LFFing everyone else then NO ONE is LFFing anyone and it all evens out. But in reality setups like this just lead to dull, trendless matches where no one has a chance at a comeback because without any fanbase diversity the percentages just stagnate after the opening hour. Exactly like what we just sat through!

Soooo, with so many kind-of-PC-but-actually-360 mature shooters and semi-shooters to choose from, does any one game have the upper hand? I don't really think so, but if pressed I suppose I would back Fallout to look best tonight. Sure it overlaps a good bit with Mass Effect, but it has the recency advantage (which always seems to be a big deal in GotYish polls like this) and doesn't appear to have faded from the public's mind as quickly as most holiday releases do. That being said I still don't think ME gets totally crunched; Fo3 seems like another MGS4 kind of game that's always going to be heavily supported and look good in a multiway format but that doesn't have the massive playrate or casual appeal needed to blow anyone out.

The only question remaining is, can L4D pull a CoD4 and refuse to bend under Halo 3's pressure? My answer: an extremely timid "maybe." Left 4 Dead has had amazing sales for such a small release and continues to have great legs every month, and I think even people who aren't playing it on Live right now still have fond memories of matches they played with their friends in the last few months. I'm banking on L4D holding Halo back enough where first place is never in contention, but the Western RPGs > Western Shooters trend has me leaning toward ME for 3rd place in this one. Should be close though, especially with how much that green box art stands out in the match pic. Let's say...

  • Fallout 3 - 34.28%
  • Halo 3 - 27.55%
  • Mass Effect - 20.25%
  • Left 4 Dead - 17.91%

Yes sir, about 0% confidence in that!

Next Day Review[]

Memo to SB: when you group together the same kind of games with the same kind of fanbases from the same system, the result is exactly the opposite of what you told us you wanted out of this Contest. Yesterday's PS3 shooterfest resulted in only 109k votes, the least of the season so far... and then today's 360 shooter/wrpg-fest is going to result in a truly pathetic sub-103k total. For cripes' sake, even the old arcade/8-bit games that no one has cared about for 10 years managed 115k! To solve this problem for the next game contest, you could, gee wiz, NOT DIVIDE THE BRACKET BY ERAS! Sorry, just had to get that off my chest. I'll say one thing about today though- I was wrong about all the LFF resulting in a trendless 24 hours. H3 finally pulled out the kind of fantastic Bungie ASV we'd been expecting all Contest, which was especially impressive in this case since it had to share the poll with three other options that have a big time presence on the 360. Not much to say about this one aside from that; L4D did pretty decent and ME looked a little gross, but WRPG SFF kind of gets it off the hook.

External Links[]

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2009 Spring Contest Matches

Round One
Tetris > Donkey Kong
MM2 > Pac-Man
SMB > Ninja Gaiden
Zelda 1 > Metroid
Sonic 1 > SFII
SMB3 > Monkey Island
SMW > FF
FFIV > MM3
S.Metroid > SMK
Zelda:LttP > DKC
FFVI > Zelda:LA
Sonic 2 > MKII
GE007 > SMRPG
FFVII > MK64
SM64 > SotN

CT > Yoshi's Island
Pokémon RBY > Zelda:MM
MGS > Pokémon GS
FFVIII > Starcraft
Zelda: OoT > FFIX
FFX > MGS2
KH > GTA:VC
Diablo II > Halo
SSBM > Zelda:WW
Oblivion > ToS
MGS3 > WoW
RE4 > KHII
Zelda: TP > Half-Life 2
SSBB > GTAIV
CoD4 > SMG
MGS4 > Portal
Fallout 3 > Halo 3

Round Two
Tetris > MM2
SMB > Zelda 1
SMB3 > Sonic 1
SMW > FF IV
Zelda:LttP > S.Metroid
FFVI > Zelda:LA
FFVII > GE007
SM64 > CT
MGS > Pokémon RBY
Zelda:OoT > FFVIII
FFX > KH
SSBM > Diablo II
MGS3 > Oblivion
Zelda:TP > RE4
SSBB > CoD4
MGS4 > Fallout 3

R3 and following
SMB > Zelda 1
SMB3 > SMW
Zelda:LttP > FFVI
FFVII > SM64
Zelda:OoT > Pokémon RBY
SSBM > FFX
Zelda:TP > RE4
SSBB > MGS4
SMW > SMB3
FFVII > Zelda:LttP
Zelda:OoT > FFX
MGS4 > SSBB
FFVII > Zelda:LttP
Zelda:OoT > FFX
Zelda:OoT > FFVII (Finals)
Zelda:OoT > FFVII (Bonus)

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