Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 1998-2000 Semi Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 42 |
| Match Date | Monday, May 18th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 44.46% Final Fantasy VIII - 22.07% Starcraft - 20.28% Final Fantasy IX - 13.57% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Zelda:OoT first place (4pts) - 56.02% Zelda:OoT second place (2pts) - 24.30% FF8 second place (4pts) - 16.06% FF8 first place (2pts) - 10.99% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Ocarina of Time - 80.32% (30,759) Final Fantasy VIII - 27.05% (10,359) |
We've already covered why FF7's performance in round 2 was more impressive than Ocarina's here, but thankfully there was a decent match to be had past Ocarina's blowout first place victory.
The final result does not do justice how legitimately scared Final Fantasy 8 was early on in this match. Thanks to Final Fantasy 9's leeching of 8 and Zelda destroying everything, Starcraft's independent fanbase was able to sneak it into second place early. After how badly Starcraft sucked in the first round, all the ghosts from 2004 came out of the closet and Starcraft once again miraculously found itself in a position to cause damage. And given the circumstance of the opponents, it wasn't unreasonable to think Starcraft could pull this one off. Pulling off a big comeback is difficult when you're in a fourway poll against your own fans and Ocarina of Time.
But this time, there would be no miracle rally and no miracle finish. After Starcraft built up a 100 vote lead, FF8 stalled for awhile before the FF overnight vote kicked in and the floodgates opened. FF8 literally erased the lead in 30 minutes once 1:50 a.m. hit, and then 8 went on to score an easy 6000 vote win. No insane Starcraft run this year, though that first two hours were quite entertaining.
FF8 proved in the first round it was no fluke, and it proved in the second round it could stand up to a bit of adversity. It would be nice to see how FF8 held up in a 1v1 game contest, but sadly we'll likely never get the chance.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Much like Majora vs R/B/Y, I'd given up hope for a reversed result in tonight's R2 match after seeing just how badly the underdog had been pounded in R1. Now though, I'm extremely nervous about my bracket's pick of Ocarina > FF8; let me count the ways:
- sure FF4 crunched FF1, but its now pretty clear that 1 relies almost entirely on its series recognition and cute sprites. against an opponent with an ACTUAL fanbase it's much much harder to inflict major SFF/LPF damage, as G/S/C is showing us today. between's 9's very vocal fanbase and its strong showing last round, I could see 8 having almost as hard a time as Red is at beating down its younger brother
- Mario 1, SMW, GE, Mario 64... every time pre-GameCube Nintendo has had a chance to stand on its own this round it has demolished our expectations, and I see no reason for Ocarina of Time to snap that trend. sure these other games are all strong, but this draw is just peachy in terms of allowing the biggest of the Zeldas to stand out from the competition, and that's a scary proposition- I think it's going to put up a big time number in this one by the time the smoke has cleared (especially since it should be able to rock this ASV)
- the higher OoT goes, the more I like SC's chances. yes yes, I realize that the whole "dedicated fanbase" factor is overblown, but even so, SC pulled 28 and DII did 27 and WoW did 24; I honestly don't think 20% is out of StarCraft's range, and if Ocarina goes wild that might be all it takes
- chuckle at Longshot Lopen all you want, but he has a point... there's a reason L-Block and Snake did so great in '07 and '08, and I do agree that being non-Zelda/FF/Mario options was a major part of why those bandwagons gained steam. and if that's a legit mindset for many voters, there could hardly be a more ideal rally proposition than getting to take down two Final Fantasy titles plus the most "overrated" Zelda of them all at the same time!
- wowza does Ocarina ever dominate that match pic. the adult version of Link everyone loves, the triforce, logo looking big and bold, man. and Vivi is rocking his coolest look as well. and yikes, StarCraft sportin' the coolest unit RTS unit in the world, the Archon! while FF8 looks like... well, garbage, honestly. I'm sure that's an awesome cut scene, but sorry, its comes out way too small to translate to a match pic
And finally...
- there's no way StarCraft loses a close match
Factoring in all those points, you can see why I'm so frightened that I have to pick against my bracket and say
- The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time - 44.99%
- StarCraft - 20.36%
- Final Fantasy VIII - 20.35%
- Final Fantasy IX - 14.30%
*hopes for a good one!*
Next Day Review[]
Hm... well on the plus side we're already over 130k and this should end up as the 2nd or 3rd most popular match of the season so far, despite the double Final Fantasy overlap. On the down side, here's another missed opportunity on what ought to have been a great match! Really cool first three hours, looked to be setting up for FF8 to get a decent lead before SC came roaring back with the SNV Halo/SC-style, but then Europe had to go and ruin everything by being WAY too crazy about FF8. That was such a devastating stretch that the Blizzard faithful realized there would be no chance of a rally; instead Ocarina got a free pass to just keep rising all day. And yikes, did it ever! Even combining FF8 and 9, they still only managed to hold Ocarina to 59% of the vote- boy, I'd be shaking in my boots if I had one of those wacky FF7 brackets! Though of course none of this Finals talk matters unless FFX can make it there to help balance the load, and speaking of which...