Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 1992-1994 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 11 |
| Match Date | Friday, April 17th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Final Fantasy VI - 41.22% Zelda: Link's Awakening - 27.29% Mega Man X - 24.57% Phantasy Star IV - 7.18% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
FF6 first place (2pts) - 55.23% FF6 second place (1pt) - 21.20% Zelda:LA second place (2pts) - 38.39% Zelda:LA first place (1pt) - 21.87% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Final Fantasy VI - 76.43% (29,270) Link's Awakening - 60.26% (23,077) |
Certain ho-hum matches tell you nothing you didn't already know, and others throw a monkey wrench into the whole system. The overwhelming consensus for this match was FF6 > MMX without much of a second thought thrown Zelda's way. Even after Mega Man 2 and 3 showed their early signs of weakness, Mega Man X would surely prove itself the strongest Mega Man game in the bracket and take care of business here. The true match after all was MMX vs Sonic 2 in the second round.
But as we all learned by the end of this contest, Zelda is no joke. yoblazer commented in the stats topic about Link's Awakening being a million seller twice and the beacon of handheld gaming before Pokemon came along. This actually makes a lot of sense. Link's Awakening kept the Game Boy going, and helped the Game Boy Color take off and take its place in the handheld market. Basically, those of us tossing Link's Awakening aside as some piddly handheld game set to roll over were being ridiculous.
And good god, were we ever. Mega Man X didn't even do that badly in the poll -- I'd even say this poll cements X's place as the strongest Mega Man game on this site -- but Link's Awakening was so much stronger it didn't matter. MMX was out of it from the opening, and for a small while Link's Awakening looked to threaten Final Fantasy 6, of all things. This died down and FF6 won first place with ease, but it was a fun five minutes.
From here the poll was rather simple, with the games doing nothing but trending percentages. But the message to be gleaned here was simple: Link's Awakening was legitimate, not a fluke, and was very underestimated pre-contest. LA's dominance of Mega Man X here not only cemented its place as a strong game, but guaranteed it would make the third round as well. Sonic 2 had no chance against this monster.
The other thing of note is FF6 not looking all that good here. It ends up with a respectable 40%, but it was clearly not the same game that led Link to the Past until the morning vote. It still followed its path like a good little contest entrant, but all contest long it seemed way off from its 2004 days. And it all started with Link's Awakening opening our eyes to a new legitimate game in our midst.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
So after witnessing two of the five closest wire-to-wire matches in Contest history back to back, it's time to settle in for what might very well be the third historically close battle in a row! With the way Kefka and the CT crew had been fading and fading pre-CTDS I was all set to bet against FF6 the next time a Game Contest rolled around, but nah, can't see it being in any kind of danger against competition of this caliber. And Phantasy Star frankly isn't worth talking about. But as for MMX vs LA... my oh my. After a long and bitter internal struggle I ended up going with MMX in my bracket, and here's why:
- LA isn't an RPG, but I still feel that the Zeldas of this period share much of the same fanbase as FF6. with PS4 also taking a tiny bite out of the RPG pie, MMX is the one with the best chance to play the role of sore thumb and benefit from the competition
- MMX did a very impressive job of hanging tight with Mario during all the Nintendo-filled matches last year, including beating down Zelda convincingly in that 2nd round match featuring Mudkip
- as a character, MMX proved he's just as well-liked as classic MM last season (which agreed with that favorite MM series poll that's often cited), so I have no trouble believing that MMX the game is going to be just as strong as MM2 or 3, and could perhaps perform even a little better
- lower tier Zeldas probably need to count on the voters being apathetic about the other options so that they can franchise-vote their way to victory. in a poll featuring (arguably) the most beloved Mega Man title and (arguably) the second most beloved Final Fantasy, along with another series with a very small but (probably) passionate number of fans, there might not be enough "who cares" votes to save Zelda's bacon
So those were my thoughts heading into the season. HOWEVER, everything since then has gone against my original prediction- Nintendo's been a beast all around, MM hasn't impressed while both Zeldas have scored very nice blowouts for themselves... And so I was all set to pick against my bracket for the first time in '09 until I saw the match pic. Heck yeah, X is rocking one of his coolest outfits ever while Link looks flat out goofy! Plus PS got some of the least-appealing artwork I've seen and FF6 also underwhelms, so MM gets to dominate the front page all the more. As a result I've flip-flopped back to my bracket, and am going to say:
- Final Fantasy VI - 45.10%
- Mega Man X - 23.54%
- The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening - 23.39%
- Phantasy Star IV - 7.97%
Fight, Mega Man! For everlasting something or other!
Next Day Review[]
Well, let's see here. I predicted MMX to put up 34% directly on FF6, but instead it's going to end up at... 38%. Whoo, nice work Mega Man! Now if only that "4th tier, handheld, don't worry about it" Zelda game hadn't gone and scored an astonishing 44% I'd be sitting pretty. Ever since it squeezed past the 40 mark people are trying to spin this as "not so bad" for FF6, but sorry, I don't buy it. PS4 was super-pathetic and the other two options are very heavily Nintendo- this was an ideal position for what was supposed to be the #2 entry in the 2nd most popular series on this site, yet it failed to capitalize whatsoever. Everyone in Stats has been jumping on Ulti for claiming showings like this indicate that Ocarina is going to have the upper hand heading into the Final, but seriously, if FFX and FF8 can't impress me way more than 6 did today I'm also going to start having doubts about FF. Anyways, the sad thing about 6's underperformance today is that it doesn't even matter- regardless of what happened, bracket placement has already determined that it will go into the LttP rematch as a heavy favorite (thanks to Metroid and LA tagging along) but will gets its brains bashed once it takes the next step (thanks to FF7 and CT tagging along). This is why you need to take tranny and HaR's advice regarding bracket placement, SB!