Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 2001-2003 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 22 |
| Match Date | Tuesday, April 28th, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Kingdom Hearts - 41.78% Metroid Prime - 33.38% Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 12.53% Paper Mario - 12.24% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
KH first place (2pts) - 32.73% KH second place (1pt) - 32.52% Vice City second place (2pts) - 21.79% Vice City first place (1pt) - 43.83% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Kingdom Hearts - 65.25% (24,988) Vice City - 65.62% (25,130) |
Unless I'm forgetting something, this was the first match where we had three games with a potential order for 1-2 going in. Some even thought Paper Mario had an outside chance at second place, but the main debate here was Vice City, Kingdom Hearts and Metroid Prime. 2 big PS2 games against 2 big Gamecube games made this even more confusing. Could Vice City and Kingdom Hearts stay out of each other's way and do well, or would Metroid Prime take advantage? Could Metroid avoid its typical "I get screwed by Nintendo SFF" act? There was no way to know, and this was a good match if you're not a fan of years of trends and stats making matches too predictable. We had three games that could be in any 1-2-3 order, with no real way to predict how it would end up.
Save one. In 2004, Starcraft's run overrated the hell out of the top half of Division 128. If you thought SoulCalibur, Wind Waker and Halo were as strong as those stats dictate, you're nuts. Kingdom Hearts was the one game notable enough to maintain or increase in strength the last five years. Metroid Prime was likely a victim of D128 being overrated, which in all likelihood meant Kingdom Hearts > Metroid Prime was the favored result in this match. While Vice City was in the bottom half of D128 and doesn't fall under the "hugely overrated" umbrella, Grand Theft Auto has been dropping like a rock for years and most people don't trust it anymore. Because of all this, Kingdom Hearts > Metroid Prime was the consensus pick for this match. At least I think it was, I forget the guru stats offhand.
When the match began, everything played out per our on-the-fly, lack-of-reliable-stats analysis. Kingdom Hearts flew out to an easy first place and would stay there until match's end, even in the face of another huge PS2 game. For those remaining few people who think Kingdom Hearts doesn't have some insane strength, this was more proof to the contrary.
Metroid Prime also began the match in good shape, easily in second place and building a lead through the first 15 minutes. It wasn't an overbearing performance and it looked as if it was struggling to get a lead going, but this is Grand Theft Auto we're talking about. Surely, Metroid Prime would have one of those matches where it wouldn't OMG DOMINATE second place, but handily get there. But then Vice City started stalling Metroid only 30 minutes into the match, when the lead was only 150. Surely this only meant Metroid would have one of those matches where it struggles to wins second place, but is never really threatened...
Whoops. Not only did Vice City come back overnight once all the Nintendo Power Hour stuff was over, but it won all the key voting blocks typically reserved for Nintendo throughout the rest of the match and ended up beating Metroid Prime fairly easily. Vice City still has strength in the face of GTA's perpetual weakening, but the real reason it won here is Metroid's continual way of embarrassing the hell out of itself in the face of other Nintendo options in a poll. Paper Mario leeched Metroid out of a win here, and it's as simple as that.
Not to say Metroid Prime didn't deserve to lose -- frankly if you're a heavy hitter, you should SFF the hell out of Paper Mario and place in the poll no matter what it takes -- but it wins pretty easily without a Mario in the way. This said, it's impressive that 2 PS2 games not only collectively finished 1-2 in the poll, but collectively won the company battle this time around 63.43% - 36.57%. It's rare you see Nintendo lose so badly, but it does happen once in awhile.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Now we come to one of the cooler setups of R1. During the bracketing phase everyone seemed to be saying how even though they'd take Prime over KH directly, the Square RPG was sure to slide though thanks to a Mario game being in the way to hold Metroid back a bit. I don't necessarily buy that though... for one thing the two games appeal to very different demographics and appeared on different consoles, for two things Nintendo has been gobbling up huge % all Contest long instead of falling into pits of LFF like we thought, and for three things there ARE two games here that share a console, and they're not the Nintendo choices! Sure Vice City and Kingdom Hearts are extremely different games that probably don't have as much overlap as you'd expect from two of the PS2's best-sellers, but what I haven't seen anyone mention is that there COULD be decent overlap between KH1 and PM1. Colorful "my first RPG"-type experiences filled with iconic characters in an attempt to bring in the younger players? I think there could be some truth to that idea, which is why I decided to take the risky Prime upset in my bracket.
As for VC, bah, it's hard to say. Sure it SEEMS as though GTA has fallen off the map, but Contests like this can result in some strange results, and I guess it wouldn't be impossible for GTA to have kind of a "Mario Kart effect" where even though the series is bad the games themselves can do decently. But with the way Nintendo has been slaughtering the past three weeks, and how PSX/PS2 Square RPGs have been killing in the last three days, I would still be pretty surprised if it were actually in the picture to advance out of this one. And with Paper Mario... that's another toughie. The Mario name has been doing wonders for every entrant, and after Mario RPG's great showing it's hard to imagine all of those fans would abandon the (kind of) next installment in the series. I mean I can't see it beating out VC, but it ought to at least hold up better than most are giving it credit for.
So in the end I'm going to go with Prime because 1. Paper Mario and GTA should both have respectable Day Votes/ASVs, limiting the damage it'll do to Metroid there 2. Samus looks AWESOME in that match pic and 3. my bracket told me so. Final decision:
- Metroid Prime - 32.19%
- Kingdom Hearts - 32.09%
- Grand Theft Auto: Vice City - 21.75%
- Paper Mario - 13.97%
Let's go Prime!
Next Day Review[]
What an absolutely disgusting result.
External Links[]
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