Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 2004-2006 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 26 |
| Match Date | Saturday, May 2nd, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 32.81% World of Warcraft - 26.85% Halo 2 - 24.77% Okami - 15.69% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
MGS3 first place (2pts) - 20.51% MGS3 second place (1pt) - 25.49% WoW second place (2pts) - 36.80% WoW first place (1pt) - 37.23% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Metal Gear Solid 3 - 46.00% (17,616) World of Warcraft - 74.03% (28,351) |
One of the biggest arguments pre-contest was the potential strength of WoW. A lot of people figured it would suck because of how bad it always did in past polls, others figured it would be a lot stronger because of rallying potential (and pre-contest, a lot of people were on edge about Blizzard games), while others had it winning the entire contest. Lucid Faia, who once came a single point away from a perfect bracket, picked WoW to win this entire contest. There was no real way to settle this until match time, so a lot of people decided to stop talking about it until the proper time.
When the match finally began, all we knew for sure is Metal Gear Solid 3 was a complete lock for first place. The other three games fought it out for a few minutes, but everything took form soon enough. Okami fell off at the ten minute mark, never to be heard from again as Halo 2 and WoW were tied and fighting it out for second place. 20 minutes later, WoW had a lead of over 100 on Halo 2 and the match was essentially over. There would be no miracle ASV pushes from a Halo this time, only a big prolonged stall once WoW's lead hit 2700 or so. Halo 2 actually needed the morning vote and ASV pushes just to hold off Okami and avoid last place. Okami had come back from down 550 votes to Halo, only to watch it all blow up in smoke come the ASV.
The damage to Halo 2 however was done. Not only did it not contend for second place, it needed an ASV push to prevent coming in LAST PLACE. Casual shooters bombing all over, etc etc. If there was any doubt about Fallout 3 > Halo 3 being the easy pick for the final match of this round, that ended today. And while World of Warcraft came in second place, I don't think it was because of rallying or voodoo or any weird mumbo-jumbo. This is likely as strong as the game is -- decent, but nothing overpowering, and surely nothing that would get it a contest-winning bandwagon. Barring a miracle, it was done in round 2.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Before we get started on tonight's match properly let me just give a silent salute to the guys responsible for that match pic (and SB for making the right choices). Just an excellent, excellent piece of work right there- Okami gets to pull the full wolf shirt appeal that has worked so well for Ammy, WoW is awarded with the look that bailed out Arthas against Ike, Halo gets that very recognizable box art that did wonders for MC in '07, and MGS3 looks best of all in sporting that extremely iconic Snake Salute. This is exactly what match pics ought to look like every night- all the characters/games sporting their best and most recognizable looks, no "pic factor" having to come into play because everyone comes across as awesome right across the board.
Soooo, I took WoW in my bracket but lost a ton of faith in that choice after seeing SC get smoked (despite the common assumption that this format was going to do wonders for Blizzard), and even though Diablo managed that win it didn't inspire a ton of confidence either. Especially when you consider that I'm sure both SC and Diablo are miles ahead of WoW in terms of legit popularity on this site. HOWEVER, MGS3 looks very good in the pic, has no haters and a super-dedicated fanbase, so I think it could pull a solid 35% or so here. And Okami is not going to roll over and die; it's the only option to appear on a Nintendo console, is sporting full on Ammy apeal, and we've already seen many examples of semi-cultish games holding up great against modern competition, so I think it might be able to push towards the 20% mark.
And that would mean WoW would need only 23% or thereabouts in order to advance... after we've already seen SC manage 28 and Diablo pull down about 27. I'm a long ways from a Warcraft fan, but I do think the game will be up to that task, especially considering that it just makes sense for Blizzard rallying to be super-effective against competition like Halo. We're already seen it work out twice, and so the only way I see Halo keeping it from happening a third time is by blowing past WoW early and never looking back, which I just don't think it can do. My biggest hope for this match though is that WoW builds up a huge overnight lead before H2 pulls one of the most frightening comebacks in history with the ASV. Seems highly possible considering none of these other options should be beasts with the Day Vote!
In any case though I think WoW rallies its way to a win in the last half hour if this is at all in question, which is why I'm going with:
- Metal Gear Solid 3 - 34.91%
- World of Warcraft - 23.11%
- Halo 2 - 22.97%
- Okami - 19.01%
24 hours of Albion, here we go!
Next Day Review[]
Grrrr, so upset at Halo right now. Sure, I picked it to lose in both my Oracle and my bracket and it's living up to that billing, but if it could just have been a little less pathetic I'd be right in line for a perfect prediction here (think I'm like .41 off on MGS3 and .15 off Okami or something). But yeah, sub 22 in a match where it's the only Xbox option AND only shooter option is just nuts to me... how do you go from hanging tight with Snake in '07 to THIS in only two short years, especially considering how Xbox systems have never been more popular on this site than right now? The other strange thing is that despite WoW needing a "massive rally" to have any kind of strength and despite Halo's supposed casual appeal, this is going to be the least popular match in like a week and a half. Hmm... anyways kudos to Okami for validating itself as a legit midcarder for the third straight year, and to MGS3 for putting on a show that has us wondering if maybe it IS the 2nd most popular of the series.