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Cb7-19

Results[]

Round One

Poll3262

Monday, October 6th, 2008

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 3262
Division 5
Match # 19
Match Date Monday, October 6th, 2008
Oracle
Expectations
Zero - 35.45%
Ryu Hayabusa - 30.42%
King Dedede - 17.66%
Pit - 16.48%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Ryu H first place (2pts) - 41.77%
Ryu H second place (1pt) - 27.88%
Zero second place (2pts) - 38.51%
Zero first place (1pt) - 25.34%
Advancing
Prediction
Ryu H - 69.65% (29,882)
Zero - 63.85% (27,394)

As you can see, BrawlFEAR dominated the nomination process this year. Everything from Sandbags to space ants from that game made the field in this contest, and Nintendo or no, there was a ton of first round fodder from that game in this contest. In fact, here are the only Brawl playables to not make the field in 2008:

-Zero Suit Samus, who I don't even count as a separate character from Samus
-Peach
-Popo, who I also don't really count since Nana got in
-Sheik, who is another that doesn't really count
-Pokemon Trainer Red, and yes the default in Smash is Red and you will never convince me otherwise
-R.O.B.
-Mr. Game & Watch
-Jigglypuff
-Toon Link (please)
-Wolf

Of that entire list, the only ones who count as actual characters are Peach, Pokemon Trainer, R.O.B. (if I'm feeling very generous), Game & Watch, Jigglypuff, and Wolf. From that list, only R.O.B. has never made a contest. If you go back to Melee, only Pichu, Roy, Popo (I guess), and R.O.B. hasn't gotten in. I don't care enough to do the research past that, especially given Smash Ultimate's roster isn't even full yet and I'm supposed to pretend like these writeups are happening in 2008.

To the point. Damn near EVERYTHING from Brawl made this contest, and a lot of it went out in round 1 because all of these characters faced each other. Some people think this proves BrawlFEAR was overrated, and to that I simply point at Snake's run.

So when people look at this match and place all of the blame on Zero for shitting the bed, it's not entirely his fault. The Mega Man series is basically Nintendo's bitch at this point, and he had to sit there splitting the votes with two other Nintendo characters. This doesn't mean Zero had any right not getting first place here, but what ended up happening is at least somewhat explainable.

That said, this was still an epic choke job. Zero was once thought of as a character that could crack the Noble Nine, and it was mainly due to this set of matches:

https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1344-east-division-round-2-zero-vs-sonic-the-hedgehog
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1768-20xx-division-semifinal-mega-man-vs-zero
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1364-south-division-final-solid-snake-vs-mega-man
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/1775-20xx-division-final-mega-man-vs-solid-snake
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2557-tournament-quarterfinal-solid-snake-vs-mega-man

There was also the fact Zero and Ryu had a 1v1 match before: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/poll/2068-mushroom-division-round-1-zero-vs-ryu-hayabusa

That poll is real. It actually happened. So we all just penciled in Zero > Ryu without thinking much of it, because this wasn't some lol x-stats thing. We have a direct 63-37 result.

Yeah, whoops.

Turns out Zero is good, but not that good. When the poll started, Zero struggled to get out of the gates, while Pit and Dedede pulled up the rear. If you folks want to talk about the one time epical battle those two had for third place, knock yourselves out. You're a manic if you do, but hey, you do you.

Zero did eventually get going, and overnight it looked like he would cruise to a comfortable, yet disappointing first place. He built up a lead of 700 overnight, and it seemed like we could all just go to bed. But then the unthinkable happened, and Ryu not only started cutting off votes overnight, but he won the morning vote by such convincing fashion that by the time he caught up, it was clear Ryu was going to win. The dude flew by Zero, and kept laying the wood on him all day long until he ended up winning by 1400. It was one of the most shocking board results of the entire contest, because even with two Nintendo characters bringing up the rear, there was no tangible reason to think Ryu could just turn around a 63-37 match in three years' time like this.

This was a very embarrassing loss for Zero, though not altogether inexplicable, and again, it didn't even matter in the grand scheme of things since both of them advanced anyway. Thanks, 4ways. First off, Ryu Hayabusa is not some bottom feeder. Outside of 2005 and 2006, this guy is always involved in entertaining matches and he often wins them. Just ask Master Chief. Just ask Jill Valentine, whose mega-duel with Ryu back in 2004 might legitimately be the most entertaining round 1 match we'll ever have. Just ask Simon Belmont, who almost lost to the guy after Smash Ultimate hype. Or in an actual gaming sense, ask anyone who gets to that hidden mission in Nioh. That fight is some of the most annoying nonsense in the entire game.

The other factor to consider is the warning signs have been there for years of Mega Man's gang falling off. Mega Man himself went from beating Snake every year to losing to him, and Zero's gradual downfall is pretty evident. If you want to see how bad it would get, just skip ahead to 2013 and 2018.

So... yeah. Another random first place upset that would have meant so much more were it an actual 1v1 contest. Thanks, 4ways. You suck.

Stats and Analysis[]

That says it all. And believe it or not, this was actually considered to have been a GOOD result for Ryu Hayabusa, to have been mostly attributed to his picture.

Zero was a once bright star who has been falling faster and faster ever since. Once good enough for 48% on Sonic, doing better on MEGA MAN than Snake could, since his match with Mario things have gone pretty much downhill. That was, until last year - the Maverick Hunter ended up shockingly close to Crono, both looking good and foretelling the downfall of the Noble Niner in the process. Sure, he got killed in the next round, but Link was there. Mega Man always gets crushed by Link. The bottom line was that Zero had looked good in this format, he wouldn't have had a problem even if he hadn't, and with two pieces of fodder from the same game tearing each other apart he would have the lion's share of the votes to work with in tearing down Hayabusa again.

Well, either the star has regained its downward trajectory, or the universe just hates BT. I mean, seriously, just look at those results. The match started innocuously enough, with Zero off to a fast start - but it really just wasn't as fast as it "should" have been, especially considering Ryu H's own pretty poor board vote. Still, just a hiccup, right? Not so much - Ryu was stalling, stalling, stalling, and Zero was struggling to put on a lead during his best time. Mega Man characters are about as frontloaded as you can imagine - if you can beat them during the first three hours, you've got the match in the bag. Ryu H didn't do that, but he managed to keep the match within reach - and as soon as the clock ticked 4 am, he began his unstoppable comeback. Zero tried to keep his head above water with the during school vote, but it was for naught - Ryu H actually ended up taking the lead BEFORE the ASV, and 3 pm was just a formality on top of all of that. It wasn't the most impressive of wins, but we're talking about one of the biggest direct margin reversals EVER.

Hayabusa shocked the world in this match, even more than he had when he beat Riku and Roxas combined last year. In fact, this one was even MORE shocking, because we had written that all off as a fluke after he went and bombed to a loss in the very next round. Then the gears in our heads started turning - why had he bombed last time? The only thing that seemed to change was the introduction of Solid Snake, and that didn't make much sense... but just to keep everyone on their toes, he was waiting in the wings AGAIN next round.

Still, for the time Ryu Hayabusa got his moment in the sun, and while I actually like Zero more than him personally (not in the contests though, eww BT), the most skilled character in all of gaming with the best action games in the business deserves a good upset win under his belt. By the way, I say "upset" in the sense of the board - Ryu's bracket support was INCREDIBLE, and once again the casuals ended up humiliating us in a Zero match.

Oh, and let us not leave without giving token mention of Pit and Dedede. See uh I told you Pit was more popular! Ugh two more Brawlers out of the contest less than a hundred to go

Match Trends[]

Graph3262

Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]

Match Prediction[]

Last Known Values

  • Zero - 33.32% (2007)
  • Ryu H - 23.73% (2007)
  • Pit - 15.73% (2007)
  • Dedede - new

Zero is pretty clearly a stud in this format. I mean yeah, he folded underneath Link/Crono/Vincent, but who wouldn't have? YOU? Doubtful! Actually I was remembering that match and briefly considering whether or not I should consider, if even just briefly, the Ryu upset. But then I remembered that firstly Mega Man 9 was going to be tearing it up right around this time, and secondly that Zero flat out destroyed Ryu 1v1 back in '05. Hm, actually looking at it now, that was only a 63% beating, not as bad as I thought. But still, even if Ryu gets extra points in this format for looking so cool in the match pic or gains ASV strength for being the only Xbox option, there's no way I could imagine him keeping this competitive for the top spot.

Likewise I'd be shocked if either of tonight's Brawl options were able to do anything surprising here. Even if that game had been turning newcomers into GameFAQs Contest superstars left and right, I don't see how either of these guys could get enough of an advantage over the other to upstage Ryu. And since we instead seem to be finding out that it takes Melee + Brawl + something else to not flop out here in 2008, I fear we may be in for something more on par with today's awful Banjo/Olimar showings. Between the two, I'm thinking Triple D should have a bit of an advantage thanks to his Kirby appeal, but Pit looks really cool in the picture and will hopefully be able to keep him from running away.

Yeah, short writeup there since I don't see anything too wild happening... but prove me wrong, Dedede!

  • Zero - 36.45%
  • Ryu Hayabusa - 27.41%
  • King Dedede - 20.77%
  • Pit - 15.37%

I... don't like that very much! Ack...

Ngamer Says: Zero > Ryu

Next Day Review[]

Well, color me surprised! I guess you can chalk up this Ryu shocker to those of us "in the know" wearing our previous result blinders... but come on now, this wasn't like Snake/Mega Man, where even though MM kept winning you got the feeling Snake was never all that far behind- this was an old fashioned 63% beatdown! You're not supposed to turn around a 26% deficit in just a few years! I guess MM9 alone isn't enough to make up for three years of doing nothing as a series; either that or these low tier Brawlers are taking a bigger bite out of Zero's pie than I would have thought possible. The good thing is we get to find out the answer in just a few weeks. Will Zero pull back out in front of Ryu with no other Nintendo options? Will Vivi instead capitalize on being the only Square/RPG option in a room full of badasses? Will Ryu take full advantage of being the only Xbox option and surprise us again? Wow, this format can be pretty awesome in those rare cases when you clear out the clutter and the fodder and the jokes and throw three legitimate options of near-equal strength against one another- who knew?

External Links[]

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2008 Contest Matches

Round One
Zack > Wario
Link > Zidane
Marth > Duke
Altair > Lucario
Luigi > Liquid
Bowser > Phoenix
Mario > Zelda
X > Mudkip
Samus > Nightmare
Ganondorf > Frog
Vincent > Falco
Scorpion > Gordon
Crono > Amaterasu
L-Block > Ryu
Alucard > Falcon

Pikachu > Arthas
Cube > Tidus
Mega Man > Nero
Ryu H > Zero
Snake > Vivi
Sora > Fox
Squall > Yoshi
Cloud > Midna
Mewtwo > Pac-Man
Big Boss > Kirby
Master Chief > Raiden
Leon > Riku
Dante > Hogger
Sonic > Sandbag
Auron > Sub-Zero
Sephiroth > Tifa
Kratos > Jill

Round Two
Link > Zack
Duke > Altair
Liquid > Luigi
Mario > X
Samus > Ganondorf
Vincent > Gordon
Crono > L-Block
Pikachu > Alucard
Mega Man > Cube
Snake > Zero
Squall > Sora
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Master Chief
Dante > Leon
Auron > Sonic
Sephiroth > Kratos

R3 and following
Link > Zack
Mario > X
Samus > Vincent
Crono > Pikachu
Snake > Cube
Cloud > Mewtwo
Kirby > Dante
Sephiroth > Sonic
Link > Mario
Samus > Crono
Cloud > Snake
Sephiroth > Kirby
Link > Crono
Snake > Cloud
Link > Snake (Finals)
Classic > CD-I (Bonus)

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