Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Round | Division 7 Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 55 |
| Match Date | Tuesday, November 11th, 2008 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Kirby - 27.50% Master Chief - 25.69% Dante - 25.29% Leon Kennedy - 21.48% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Kirby first place (8pts) - 13.19% Kirby second place (4pts) - 10.39% Dante second place (8pts) - 30.76% Dante first place (4pts) - 7.39% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Kirby - 23.58% (10,117) Dante - 38.15% (16,367) |
TESTOSTERONE!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJZp6awlL58
Very few matches in contest history have more MANHOOD than this one, and make no mistake. Kirby has all the others beat in T levels and they all know it.
Jokes aside, this was a heavily debated match pre-contest and mid-contest. Most people expected this particular fourpack, but if you check the guru numbers, people were just all over the place. The favored outcome pre-contest, believe it or not, was Master Chief > Dante. The "Dante" part of that favored outcome was highly in dispute, with Kirby only barely having less support for second place. Master Chief was arguably the star of the contest in 2007, and if he stayed at that level, him being a favorite here made sense.
The contest itself to this point didn't provide a whole lot of clarity, so it was a cool match where no one really knew what would happen going in. We only knew two definitive things. One, Dante was going to finish ahead of Leon Kennedy. We had already seen this once in 2007 and in round 2 this year. That was a mortal lock. The other certainty was Kirby was absolutely finishing top 2. The main question is whether or not Master Chief would be there with him. Kirby and Chief had a match together in round 2 where they were only 1500 votes apart, but Kirby finished in first place. Some argued that Big Boss and Raiden leeched Chief, and that Chief could have won that one with a better draw.
So come match time, we had pretty much all figured out it would be Kirby, Chief, and Dante in some order for top three, with Leon having no shot. And as you can see by the Oracle picks, Kirby was the first place favorite.
The match itself was... kind of a dud, all things considered, but it was still fun to hype up. Kirby just wrecked shop right from the jump and put the first place debate to bed immediately. No one was catching him, proving Kirby had THE BIGGEST BALLS OF ALL in our testosterone-fueled Ertyu Special.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPlqLHcphyw
The other lock was Leon in last, which happened as expected. The fun came in the second place duel. You guys know my feelings on second place duels mattering more than first place by now, so no need to relive it. This was a really fun one though for about an hour. Dante and Master Chief did their thing, talked a bunch of smack in deep voices, gave us some over the top cut scenes, saved a few babes, had a few drinks, had a few laughs, had a few fights, and generally did what dudebros like to do when they're having a disagreement. You settle it like men, and then shake hands and move on.
On this day, it would be Dante accepting the brofist-hug-handshake combo from Master Chief, because after an hour the Chief just didn't have it in him. He fell off pretty badly overnight, and his usual ASV fire just wasn't there. I know getting the 2007 magic back was going to be almost impossible, but I was hoping for a tiny bit more warrior from him on his way out this year. But if you're gonna lose, you might as well lose to characters that are just as cool are you are. Semper Fi, Master Chief.
This sent Kirby and Dante along for a match with Sephiroth and Sonic. Easy match, right? Turns out this contest had a couple more surprises left before it was done.
Stats and Analysis[]
- Kirby advancing was the #10 most surprising result of 2008
- Dante advancing was the #25 most surprising result of 2008
As in Round 2, Kirby was the obvious standout among three "mature" characters, and emerged as a clear favorite to advance, while the other spot was pretty much up for grabs.
Kirby came out of the gate on fire, seemingly having gained strength after his first two matches. By the end of the Power Hour, he had built up a lead of over 900 votes, and he coasted to a 5000+ victory.
The other story of this match was Master Chief's continued fall from grace. After his big performance in 2007, the Chief looked vulnerable from the start of this contest, and never managed to regain his former strength. After battling for the first half-hour of the match, he fell behind Dante in the race for second, and was never really in contention after that. Dante crushed Chief during the night and into the morning, and built a lead of over 3300 by the afternoon, before eventually winning by 2900.
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Speaking of sore thumbs, we've got another today! But even better, we've got a great chance to continue that amazing streak of Nintendo overperformances. Can Kirby pull it off?
X-Stats from Round Two
- Kirby - 17.86% (based on '07 Big Boss)
- Master Chief - 17.53% (based on '07 Big Boss)
- Dante - 30.64% (based on '07 Riku)
- Leon - 29.17% (based on '07 Riku)
Whoa, BB sure is a whole different character from the guy we saw in '05 and the start of '07. Adjust for that, and this one goes right back to being a four way pick 'em.
Weak as Master Chief has looked, we know for a fact that Dante and Leon are going to be holding each other back at least somewhat. Set them up for a 1v1 tomorrow and I take Dante easy, and I'd even be sure to take him in a "fair" 4 way situation, but as is those two share the same company, same character design, and leave MC free to run unchecked with the Xbox vote. It shouldn't be a blowout, but I see the Chief being able to advance ahead of Team Capcom, though he might need his ASV to do so.
As for Dante vs Leon, well that's no longer really in question, is it? Mistaaaa Kennedy was fantastic in the opening hours last round but Dante soon righted the ship and proceeded to run away from him for the next 20 hours. REFAQs or not, there's unfortunately just not any reasonable way for Leon not to finish this poll in the basement.
The odd thing is that Leon is going to decide the final result though, in some way. You see much of his strength comes from being the only M-rated major seller from the GameCube's library, and so even though Kirby gets to look all cute and pink against three mature action stars once again, this time around there figures to be at least a little LFF limiting his damage. How much will that matter, though? Probably not a whole ton... Leon beat out Pikachu by 9% back in R2 of last year, after all. Originally I was planning to take MC for the win over Kirby due to the overlap, but with the way Nintendo's been on fire I'm going to back off that "upset" now and continue to support the puffball.
Yeah, so even though all four of these characters are probably very close in natural strength, I don't see any way for this to be the epic 4-way "anyone could win!" battle that would be so awesome to watch. It might LOOK like that during the dead of night, but I've got to imagine and MC and Kirby's strong Days will push them through if it comes to that. But if its still pretty close all the way around, we're talking about like... *pots and stirs and spits*
- Kirby - 26.17%
- Master Chief - 25.75%
- Dante - 25.06%
- Leon - 23.02%
Looking mighty fine! I guess.
Ngamer Says: Kirby > Master Chief
Next Day Review[]
This is seriously pretty upsetting. I've always despised MC and had hearty laughs at his failures, but after last season I had no choice but to respect him (in this format, at least). So I go out and give him credit for the first time ever, and he thanks me by doing THIS... not only do I get this pick wrong, but it's the mistake that eliminates me from the Guru. Bah!
I mean, losing to Dante would be weird (considering he beat him by 6% last year in a fair, non-Block match), but at least understandable/acceptable post-DMC4. But to never even be in contention against Dante, in a match where he's being limited by Leon, in a match where there's no one to share your Xbox fanbase? That's just flat out pathetic.